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Re: L.A. drought--4" to date, lowest year to date in record/hydrated view

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  • fredwx
    That is rather a long post so it will take me some time to digest. One thing I noted was this: You said recent changes in output from Lake Mead, although not
    Message 1 of 7 , May 6, 2002
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      That is rather a long post so it will take me some time to digest.
      One thing I noted was this:

      You said "recent changes in output from Lake Mead,
      although not the same as building Hoover and creating a Dust Bowl,
      have had significant impact on SW climate."


      The Hoover Dam started impounding water in Lake Mead in February of
      1935. The "Dust Bowl" was a series of droughts that occurred in the
      1930's, specificly four times: 1930-31, 1934, 1936, and 1939-40.

      I don't see how the Hoover Dam could have effected the first two
      events?

      http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/amex/hoover/timeline/index.html



      --- In methanehydrateclub@y..., "pawnfart" <mike@u...> wrote:
      > L.A. is having the driest year since records were recorded--four
      > inches of rain so far.
      >
      > Last year it was decided to take run off from excess spring rains
      > that over flow from Lake Mead and run them to California. This was
      > despite the damage already caused by CAP--see
      > http://www.geocities.com/NapaValley/8339/CAP.html That decision
      looks
      > pretty dumb from where I sit.
      >
      > But there is also an issue of warmer oceans. Warmer, again, means
      > more conductive, and for west to east moving currents, it means
      less
      > cirrus.
      >
      > No El Nino is also hard on S. Cal rain conditions.
      >
      > So is 30,000 dams built in Asia over the past 30 years, culminated
      > with the Three Gorge diversion and relocation to the delta, and
      delta
      > sedimentation retention projects for land for these people to live.
      >
      >
      >
      > Here are some thoughts back, first in cryptic form and then perhaps
      > some code breaking background--I hope it communicates. First,
      warmer
      > oceans mean that they are more specifically conductive--less
      > resistive to electrical currents. This is related to the cold SSTs
      to
      > the top of the N. Pacific gyre, IMHO, and hence, provides less rain
      > to S. Cal. That is because a more conductive ocean cuts both ways,
      > including an idea that currents moving from west to east will
      induct
      > against cirrus enhancement per the IR measures discussed in Lindzen
      > and Fu's papers (yes, they ignore direction of current in their
      > papers but their data is solid if not their mechanism conclusions).
      > Second, 30,000 dams have been built in Asia over the past 30 years,
      > culminated by Three Gorge. That means more electrical leakage or
      less
      > Gaia insulation. Third, recent changes in output from Lake Mead,
      > although not the same as building Hoover and creating a Dust Bowl,
      > have had significant impact on SW climate. Specifically, recently a
      > controversy arose relative to the American Mexican treaty over
      water
      > to the Gulf of California and the health of the estuary as it
      > pertained to these dolphins there, and the Mexicans asked that
      > spring "overspill" from Lake Mead continue, and the Americans
      elected
      > to send this water to California via ducts. Not wise--as it has
      > caused record dry conditions in the region--to include mountains in
      > S. Cal that eventually run off S. Cal rivers to methane hydrate
      > fields along the S. Cal coast. From a biological standpoint,
      > conditions are very electrically poor for S. Cal and it is starting
      > to show in poor rainfall amounts
      >
      > .....
      >
      > The microbiology and chemistry of hydrate formation throws in great
      > complexity in the methanogens role in climate. In my view, as most
      of
      > you know, the oceans and climate is much more of a living,
      biological
      > process than many consider it to be. The complexity confuses many
      > against seeing the biological aspect. One reason is that methane
      > hydrate only forms provided extreme conditions AND CONCENTRATIONS
      of
      > methane are satisfied. This means there must be lots of methane
      > concentrated in one place or the methane just dissolves in the
      water
      > without forming the ice crystal. There is a good example to see how
      > this is true by experiment. CO2 also forms an additional gas
      hydrate
      > similar to methane hydrates, and researchers have designed, for
      > instance, a torpedo shaped block of frozen CO2, which turns out to
      be
      > denser than ocean water, that when released from a ship, will fall
      to
      > the sand at the depths of the ocean and get wedged into it--then
      form
      > CO2 hydrate, that although as a hydrate is less dense than the
      water,
      > as buried in sand will be 'heavy' enough to stay there. This is
      > actually a patented idea as a way of carbon sequestration. Anyway,
      > methane hydrate researchers looking into this type of thing have
      > taken CO2 down to the depths, under 1,280 feet, in robots and
      > released it in concentrated form. The CO2 spills out and forms a
      gas
      > hydrate. But right next to the hydrate is are fish swimming about--
      in
      > a picture taken of this process! So, the CO2 coming out of their
      > gills doesn't turn to hydrate, and the O2 they must breath into
      their
      > gills isn't ice! A type of protein has evolved in fish that
      prevents
      > hydrates from forming! Hence, the archaebacteria, in the symbiotic
      > process to make methane for hydrates in the intermediate depths of
      > the oceans, must make it in sufficient concentrations for it to
      form.
      > This sets up a more narrow set of parameters where sufficient
      > biological conditions must first exist for the microbrial activity
      to
      > be sufficient to form sufficient concentrations for it to form.
      This
      > sets up a more narrow set of parameters where sufficient biological
      > conditions must first exist for the microbrial activity to be
      > sufficient to form significant hydrate activity.
      >
      > For instance, look at the history of the Younger Dryas and current
      > dogma about its cause fresh water capping from the diversion of the
      > Mississippi headwaters to the east to the N. Atlantic. A river
      fresh
      > off a glacier, I suspect, doesn't biologically cut it. And if a
      river
      > that once flowed out of huge glacial lakes then becomes
      substantially
      > less flowing, with less sedimentation and detritus, then the
      hydrate
      > activity will substantially decrease.
      >
      >
      > In this case, the significant change is relative to the Gulf of
      > California. Hydrates are located there:
      >
      > http://woodshole.er.usgs.gov/project-pages/hydrates/where.html
      >
      > They don't form in shallows--they require 1,275 feet of water or
      > more.
      >
      > They are found on the US west coast as far south as off the coast
      of
      > Santa Barbara. Understand the counter current would move NORTHWEST.
      > So, applicable to what I am talking about, they are found IN THE
      GULF
      > OF CALIFORNIA.
      >
      >
      > http://www.dri.edu/Projects/Monsoon/3empirical.html
      >
      > The monsoon in the SW depends on the surface temperatures of the
      > waters in the Gulf of California.
      >
      > Waters from the tropics in that region tend to move along the coast
      > in a NW manner and peel off west with the N. Pacific gyre.
      >
      > The study involved non-El Nino period so that wind direction of
      > consequence is generally constant for the study. This leave a
      > question what varied the SSTs. As I have tried to explain, SSTs are
      > MODULATED by the biosphere with energies from IR movements by
      cirrus
      > cloud behavior that can change energies absorbed in the range of
      > between 50 and 200 watts per meter squared per Lindzen and Fu's
      > papers. Over time scales of a few weeks, this kind of energy is
      > sufficient to move SSTs!
      >
      > What I would like to do is talk for a moment about Keeling Whorf
      > (K/W) and tidal changes. IMHO, tides not only alter how the oceans
      > move against the beaches, but also how currents move in the
      > intermediate oceans. While K/W is not much of a factor right now on
      > these kind of timescales it is illistrative of the feedback
      involved
      > on shorter periods by way of example.
      >
      > I have talked about depressurization of hydrates from K/W before,
      but
      > there is also an idea of simple melting from changes in ocean
      > currents. If there is a lot of sloshing around, to put it crudely,
      > than underneath the gyres, which are the warmest and hence most
      > electrically significant aspect of climate, than the swath of
      hydrate
      > activity underneath the gyres is going to be melted to a larger
      > extent. That means more electrical leakage. It would be like having
      > MS--the myolin sheaths of nerve tissues becoming defective--the
      > biological signal to climate is short circuited. Here is a blurb
      from
      > K/Ws paper:
      >
      >
      >
      > "The IRD event (number 5) near 8,100 yr BP is particularly
      noteworthy
      > because it appears to be associated with the most abrupt and
      > widespread climate shift known from the past 10 kyr (10); it is
      > believed to have been initiated by a large freshwater pulse from
      > Laurentide lakes, dated at 8,470 yr BP, that reduced surface ocean
      > salinity in the North Atlantic Ocean, thereby causing widespread
      > cooling near 8,200 yr BP (11). Two recently drilled sedimentary
      cores
      > show multiple IRD events between 8,300 and 7,400 yr BP (ref. 1,
      Fig.
      > 14). Together with the Elk Lake dust layer of 7,800 yr BP, these
      data
      > suggest prolonged or repeated cooling well beyond the time expected
      > for a freshwater discharge to directly affect climate. The maximum
      > tidal forcing near these events at 7,744 yr BP was the greatest in
      > 20,000 years, preceded and succeeded by strong forcing at 8,089 and
      > 7,381 yr BP of the 360-yr tidal cycle. Thus the tidal hypothesis
      > suggests that cooling initiated by a freshwater pulse may have been
      > prolonged by tidal forcing. Also consistent with tidal forcing is
      the
      > possibility that the timing of the freshwater pulse occurred during
      a
      > warm phase of the 1,800-year tidal cycle, about 700 years before
      > maximum forcing at 7,744 yr BP. "
      >
      > See figure
      >
      > http://www.pnas.org/cgi/content/full/97/8/3814/F7
      >
      > Both quote and figure from:
      >
      > http://www.pnas.org/cgi/content/full/070047197
      >
      > A mudslide of 8,000 years ago must be put into perspective of the
      > Keeling Whorf research--and I think is somewhat related to the
      > Younger Dryas in that the feedbacks out of the glacial hadn't
      reached
      > the biological stability we have today after the interglacial has
      > persisted as long as it has:
      >
      > October 5 2000 12:12 PM ET Seabed Gas Crystal Formations Linked to
      > Tsunami
      >
      > By Todd Eastham
      >
      >
      > WASHINGTON (Reuters) - About 8,000 years ago, a massive undersea
      > landslide off the coast of Norway sent a 30-foot wall of water -- a
      > tsunami wave -- barreling into the northern coast of Europe.
      >
      > If this were to recur today, as scientists say it could, almost
      > anywhere in the world, it would cost billions if not tens of
      billions
      > of dollars to repair the damage to coastal cities. And the cost in
      > lives could be far higher.
      >
      > ``A tsunami like that would wash into the Baltic with some
      > devastation,'' said scientist Charles Paull at the Monterey Bay
      > Aquarium Research Institute in Moss Landing, California.
      >
      > While scientists who study the so-called Storegga Slide with the
      > tools of geology, biology and seismography are not sure what
      > triggered it, they are fairly certain a mysterious crystalline
      solid
      > composed of water molecules intertwined with methane gas, known as
      > methane or gas hydrates, played a role.
      >
      > Paull says an earthquake might have triggered the slide, which
      > occurred in stages over hundreds of years, removing an enormous
      chunk
      > from Norway's continental margin. But its magnitude suggests
      methane
      > hydrates played a role.
      >
      > ``Whatever the trigger,'' he said in a phone interview, ``this is a
      > natural disaster related to gas hydrates.''
      >
      > Methane hydrates, which scientists are studying as a possible vast
      > global energy resource, are among the weirdest natural phenomena.
      > Sometimes called ``flammable ice,'' they are just that: highly
      > unstable and combustible crystallized solids existing only in a
      high
      > pressure/low temperature environment.
      >
      > Discovered by accident late in the 19th century by oil and gas
      > exploration teams just below the Arctic permafrost, the odd
      crystals
      > are thought to contain more clean-burning fossil fuels than Earth's
      > reserves of oil, natural gas and coal combined.
      >
      > Equally important is the key role they appear to play in the global
      > climate and marine environment, as well as the occasional
      cataclysmic
      > undersea event.
      >
      > Acting director John Farrell said the Ocean Drilling Program's 15-
      > year series of expeditions to explore the ocean floor had uncovered
      > evidence that gas hydrates have spilled into the ocean in massive
      > bursts repeatedly over the last 50,000 years. Evidence in tiny
      > plankton shells called ``forams'' show ``a chemical change in the
      > world's oceans that can only be explained by a lot of methane being
      > injected into the water.''
      >
      > Enormous Implications For World Climate
      >
      > Events of that kind have enormous implications for global climate
      > change because methane is a potent greenhouse gas. A large enough
      > release of methane, as in the Storegga Slide, could bring on or
      > accelerate a cycle of global warming.
      >
      > Warming cycles might already have been underway when such slides
      > occurred, triggered by some as-yet-unknown mechanism that warmed
      the
      > oceans enough to destabilize gas hydrates, which dissolve when
      > temperatures rise or pressures decrease.
      >
      > While release of methane from beneath the ocean floor could lead to
      a
      > vicious cycle of warming, Paull and other scientists caution there
      is
      > more at play. Rising sea levels would actually increase pressures
      on
      > those hydrate deposits, locking them in and perhaps leading to a
      > reverse cooling cycle.
      >
      > Whatever role they have played in the cycles of global climate
      > change -- as well as chemical changes in the oceans -- it is clear
      > that research into these odd combustible undersea ice formations is
      > essential to understanding planet Earth.
      >
      > In time, such research could lead to a way to predict or at least
      > calculate the risk of events like the Storegga Slide.
      >
      > ``If we understand what happened in the past, then we're in a
      better
      > position to anticipate the future,'' said Farrell.
      >
      > ``What we first have to do is make sure we know where these gas
      > hydrate layers are,'' through research like that being done by the
      > ODP, a partnership with seven international consortia representing
      > more than 20 countries. ``Then if we know about any factors that
      > affect the temperature and pressure .... we might ultimately reduce
      > the uncertainty'' about where and when the continental margins
      might
      > collapse and trigger tsunami.
      >
      > The world's largest Earth science research project, the ODP is
      > administered by the Joint Oceanographic Institutions funded in part
      > by the National Science Foundation. It will target an area off
      Oregon
      > in its next gas hydrate expedition, in 2002. "
      > .....
      >
      > What I think should be appreciated about Keeling Whorf and the
      > Younger Dryas is that the Mississippi lost its glacial lake
      sourcing,
      > so the microbrial biosphere lost its source of "food" in the GOM.
      The
      > water then flowed to the N. Pacific in a fairly inactive way,
      > biologically speaking, to a part of the ocean with little
      biological
      > activity. Hence, the change that occurred initially to mark the
      cold
      > snap of the Younger Dryas wasn't so much about fresh water capping
      as
      > it was about a significant change to the intermediate ocean
      > microbrial biosphere. A thousand years of cold conditions followed!
      > Doing a similar thing to the Gulf of California is making for dry
      > conditions in Los Angeles, as much of the rain is either monsoonal
      or
      > from winter snow fall to the mountains that would be impacted by
      the
      > monsoonal flow.
      >
      > It is true LA does not rely on local runoff for their water. It
      > relies on aqueducts from the Colorado, the Owens Valley and
      Northern
      > California. Low local rainfall does not really affect the human
      > population there. A huge proportion of the water, well over 90%
      goes
      > to agriculture. Residential water was a very small, albeit media
      > huge, amount. Also, the California coast from above San Francisco
      > south, gets almost all of its rainfall in the winter months. But a
      > regional drought will impact local hydrates directly and
      indirectly.
      >
      > Indeed, the history of water diversions from just north of L.A.
      make
      > some interesting history. Mountains with snow caps run water to the
      > cities, and from where I am near Lake Shasta in N. California, we
      are
      > sending water all the way to San Diego this year.
      >
      > Yet, indeed it was dry in N. California last year and in particular
      > on the Oregon-California border with the Klamath River. These dry
      > conditions are related to the conditions of the N. Pacific in
      > general, IMHO. That said, the dry conditions here in the last few
      > years take second place to when regional rivers went through a time
      > of heavy dams construction and reconstruction. This time with a
      > little Keeling Whorf cycling and Shasta Lake, for instance, which
      is
      > about 5 miles from me, was like half empty. And the Shasta dam
      > itself, when constructed, caused a relatively drier climate in the
      > region, IMHO. Why? Because the deforestation combined with the
      river
      > delays of flow, sedimentation and detritus into the summer months
      > reduced the intensity of the winter spring precipitation. If the
      > sedimentation, detritus and flow occur when the earth is angled
      away
      > from the sun in the winter and spring, the electrical interaction
      > with the atmosphere from the sun doesn't upset the electrical
      > enhancement created by biologically created electrical insolation
      in
      > the context of ocean current derived electrical fields that enhance
      > cirrus.
      >
      > Interestingly, just after the Bay Series quake, there was a law
      > passed called CALFED to balance the competing use interests on the
      > Sacramento. One of those interests were waterfowl in the Bay
      Estuary.
      > So there always was a managed flow, from then, to the Bay. Perhaps
      > low but always steady, always enough. Since then there has not been
      > significant siesmic activity or drought!
      >
      > What I am saying about the Colorado and Lake Mead is that in the
      past
      > they always let something go over in the spring but they stopped it
      > last year and the Mexicans haven't exactly been great about letting
      > some water flow to the ocean--and now they are paying for this
      policy
      > with drought. It is incredibly stupid.
    • fredwx
      You said First, warmer oceans mean that they are more specifically conductive--less resistive to electrical currents. This is related to the cold SSTs to the
      Message 2 of 7 , May 6, 2002
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        You said "First, warmer oceans mean that they are more specifically
        conductive--less resistive to electrical currents. This is related to
        the cold SSTs to the top of the N. Pacific gyre, IMHO, and hence,
        provides less rain to S. Cal."

        SST's are below normal over the eastern North Pacific and I agree
        that the dry weather is a likely result.

        http://psbsgi1.nesdis.noaa.gov:8080/PSB/EPS/SST/data/anomnight.4.30.20
        02.gif

        ....but there could be other reasons for this besides electrical
        currents.





        --- In methanehydrateclub@y..., "pawnfart" <mike@u...> wrote:
        > L.A. is having the driest year since records were recorded--four
        > inches of rain so far.
        >
        > Last year it was decided to take run off from excess spring rains
        > that over flow from Lake Mead and run them to California. This was
        > despite the damage already caused by CAP--see
        > http://www.geocities.com/NapaValley/8339/CAP.html That decision
        looks
        > pretty dumb from where I sit.
        >
        > But there is also an issue of warmer oceans. Warmer, again, means
        > more conductive, and for west to east moving currents, it means
        less
        > cirrus.
        >
        > No El Nino is also hard on S. Cal rain conditions.
        >
        > So is 30,000 dams built in Asia over the past 30 years, culminated
        > with the Three Gorge diversion and relocation to the delta, and
        delta
        > sedimentation retention projects for land for these people to live.
        >
        >
        >
        > Here are some thoughts back, first in cryptic form and then perhaps
        > some code breaking background--I hope it communicates. First,
        warmer
        > oceans mean that they are more specifically conductive--less
        > resistive to electrical currents. This is related to the cold SSTs
        to
        > the top of the N. Pacific gyre, IMHO, and hence, provides less rain
        > to S. Cal. That is because a more conductive ocean cuts both ways,
        > including an idea that currents moving from west to east will
        induct
        > against cirrus enhancement per the IR measures discussed in Lindzen
        > and Fu's papers (yes, they ignore direction of current in their
        > papers but their data is solid if not their mechanism conclusions).
        > Second, 30,000 dams have been built in Asia over the past 30 years,
        > culminated by Three Gorge. That means more electrical leakage or
        less
        > Gaia insulation. Third, recent changes in output from Lake Mead,
        > although not the same as building Hoover and creating a Dust Bowl,
        > have had significant impact on SW climate. Specifically, recently a
        > controversy arose relative to the American Mexican treaty over
        water
        > to the Gulf of California and the health of the estuary as it
        > pertained to these dolphins there, and the Mexicans asked that
        > spring "overspill" from Lake Mead continue, and the Americans
        elected
        > to send this water to California via ducts. Not wise--as it has
        > caused record dry conditions in the region--to include mountains in
        > S. Cal that eventually run off S. Cal rivers to methane hydrate
        > fields along the S. Cal coast. From a biological standpoint,
        > conditions are very electrically poor for S. Cal and it is starting
        > to show in poor rainfall amounts
        >
        > .....
        >
        > The microbiology and chemistry of hydrate formation throws in great
        > complexity in the methanogens role in climate. In my view, as most
        of
        > you know, the oceans and climate is much more of a living,
        biological
        > process than many consider it to be. The complexity confuses many
        > against seeing the biological aspect. One reason is that methane
        > hydrate only forms provided extreme conditions AND CONCENTRATIONS
        of
        > methane are satisfied. This means there must be lots of methane
        > concentrated in one place or the methane just dissolves in the
        water
        > without forming the ice crystal. There is a good example to see how
        > this is true by experiment. CO2 also forms an additional gas
        hydrate
        > similar to methane hydrates, and researchers have designed, for
        > instance, a torpedo shaped block of frozen CO2, which turns out to
        be
        > denser than ocean water, that when released from a ship, will fall
        to
        > the sand at the depths of the ocean and get wedged into it--then
        form
        > CO2 hydrate, that although as a hydrate is less dense than the
        water,
        > as buried in sand will be 'heavy' enough to stay there. This is
        > actually a patented idea as a way of carbon sequestration. Anyway,
        > methane hydrate researchers looking into this type of thing have
        > taken CO2 down to the depths, under 1,280 feet, in robots and
        > released it in concentrated form. The CO2 spills out and forms a
        gas
        > hydrate. But right next to the hydrate is are fish swimming about--
        in
        > a picture taken of this process! So, the CO2 coming out of their
        > gills doesn't turn to hydrate, and the O2 they must breath into
        their
        > gills isn't ice! A type of protein has evolved in fish that
        prevents
        > hydrates from forming! Hence, the archaebacteria, in the symbiotic
        > process to make methane for hydrates in the intermediate depths of
        > the oceans, must make it in sufficient concentrations for it to
        form.
        > This sets up a more narrow set of parameters where sufficient
        > biological conditions must first exist for the microbrial activity
        to
        > be sufficient to form sufficient concentrations for it to form.
        This
        > sets up a more narrow set of parameters where sufficient biological
        > conditions must first exist for the microbrial activity to be
        > sufficient to form significant hydrate activity.
        >
        > For instance, look at the history of the Younger Dryas and current
        > dogma about its cause fresh water capping from the diversion of the
        > Mississippi headwaters to the east to the N. Atlantic. A river
        fresh
        > off a glacier, I suspect, doesn't biologically cut it. And if a
        river
        > that once flowed out of huge glacial lakes then becomes
        substantially
        > less flowing, with less sedimentation and detritus, then the
        hydrate
        > activity will substantially decrease.
        >
        >
        > In this case, the significant change is relative to the Gulf of
        > California. Hydrates are located there:
        >
        > http://woodshole.er.usgs.gov/project-pages/hydrates/where.html
        >
        > They don't form in shallows--they require 1,275 feet of water or
        > more.
        >
        > They are found on the US west coast as far south as off the coast
        of
        > Santa Barbara. Understand the counter current would move NORTHWEST.
        > So, applicable to what I am talking about, they are found IN THE
        GULF
        > OF CALIFORNIA.
        >
        >
        > http://www.dri.edu/Projects/Monsoon/3empirical.html
        >
        > The monsoon in the SW depends on the surface temperatures of the
        > waters in the Gulf of California.
        >
        > Waters from the tropics in that region tend to move along the coast
        > in a NW manner and peel off west with the N. Pacific gyre.
        >
        > The study involved non-El Nino period so that wind direction of
        > consequence is generally constant for the study. This leave a
        > question what varied the SSTs. As I have tried to explain, SSTs are
        > MODULATED by the biosphere with energies from IR movements by
        cirrus
        > cloud behavior that can change energies absorbed in the range of
        > between 50 and 200 watts per meter squared per Lindzen and Fu's
        > papers. Over time scales of a few weeks, this kind of energy is
        > sufficient to move SSTs!
        >
        > What I would like to do is talk for a moment about Keeling Whorf
        > (K/W) and tidal changes. IMHO, tides not only alter how the oceans
        > move against the beaches, but also how currents move in the
        > intermediate oceans. While K/W is not much of a factor right now on
        > these kind of timescales it is illistrative of the feedback
        involved
        > on shorter periods by way of example.
        >
        > I have talked about depressurization of hydrates from K/W before,
        but
        > there is also an idea of simple melting from changes in ocean
        > currents. If there is a lot of sloshing around, to put it crudely,
        > than underneath the gyres, which are the warmest and hence most
        > electrically significant aspect of climate, than the swath of
        hydrate
        > activity underneath the gyres is going to be melted to a larger
        > extent. That means more electrical leakage. It would be like having
        > MS--the myolin sheaths of nerve tissues becoming defective--the
        > biological signal to climate is short circuited. Here is a blurb
        from
        > K/Ws paper:
        >
        >
        >
        > "The IRD event (number 5) near 8,100 yr BP is particularly
        noteworthy
        > because it appears to be associated with the most abrupt and
        > widespread climate shift known from the past 10 kyr (10); it is
        > believed to have been initiated by a large freshwater pulse from
        > Laurentide lakes, dated at 8,470 yr BP, that reduced surface ocean
        > salinity in the North Atlantic Ocean, thereby causing widespread
        > cooling near 8,200 yr BP (11). Two recently drilled sedimentary
        cores
        > show multiple IRD events between 8,300 and 7,400 yr BP (ref. 1,
        Fig.
        > 14). Together with the Elk Lake dust layer of 7,800 yr BP, these
        data
        > suggest prolonged or repeated cooling well beyond the time expected
        > for a freshwater discharge to directly affect climate. The maximum
        > tidal forcing near these events at 7,744 yr BP was the greatest in
        > 20,000 years, preceded and succeeded by strong forcing at 8,089 and
        > 7,381 yr BP of the 360-yr tidal cycle. Thus the tidal hypothesis
        > suggests that cooling initiated by a freshwater pulse may have been
        > prolonged by tidal forcing. Also consistent with tidal forcing is
        the
        > possibility that the timing of the freshwater pulse occurred during
        a
        > warm phase of the 1,800-year tidal cycle, about 700 years before
        > maximum forcing at 7,744 yr BP. "
        >
        > See figure
        >
        > http://www.pnas.org/cgi/content/full/97/8/3814/F7
        >
        > Both quote and figure from:
        >
        > http://www.pnas.org/cgi/content/full/070047197
        >
        > A mudslide of 8,000 years ago must be put into perspective of the
        > Keeling Whorf research--and I think is somewhat related to the
        > Younger Dryas in that the feedbacks out of the glacial hadn't
        reached
        > the biological stability we have today after the interglacial has
        > persisted as long as it has:
        >
        > October 5 2000 12:12 PM ET Seabed Gas Crystal Formations Linked to
        > Tsunami
        >
        > By Todd Eastham
        >
        >
        > WASHINGTON (Reuters) - About 8,000 years ago, a massive undersea
        > landslide off the coast of Norway sent a 30-foot wall of water -- a
        > tsunami wave -- barreling into the northern coast of Europe.
        >
        > If this were to recur today, as scientists say it could, almost
        > anywhere in the world, it would cost billions if not tens of
        billions
        > of dollars to repair the damage to coastal cities. And the cost in
        > lives could be far higher.
        >
        > ``A tsunami like that would wash into the Baltic with some
        > devastation,'' said scientist Charles Paull at the Monterey Bay
        > Aquarium Research Institute in Moss Landing, California.
        >
        > While scientists who study the so-called Storegga Slide with the
        > tools of geology, biology and seismography are not sure what
        > triggered it, they are fairly certain a mysterious crystalline
        solid
        > composed of water molecules intertwined with methane gas, known as
        > methane or gas hydrates, played a role.
        >
        > Paull says an earthquake might have triggered the slide, which
        > occurred in stages over hundreds of years, removing an enormous
        chunk
        > from Norway's continental margin. But its magnitude suggests
        methane
        > hydrates played a role.
        >
        > ``Whatever the trigger,'' he said in a phone interview, ``this is a
        > natural disaster related to gas hydrates.''
        >
        > Methane hydrates, which scientists are studying as a possible vast
        > global energy resource, are among the weirdest natural phenomena.
        > Sometimes called ``flammable ice,'' they are just that: highly
        > unstable and combustible crystallized solids existing only in a
        high
        > pressure/low temperature environment.
        >
        > Discovered by accident late in the 19th century by oil and gas
        > exploration teams just below the Arctic permafrost, the odd
        crystals
        > are thought to contain more clean-burning fossil fuels than Earth's
        > reserves of oil, natural gas and coal combined.
        >
        > Equally important is the key role they appear to play in the global
        > climate and marine environment, as well as the occasional
        cataclysmic
        > undersea event.
        >
        > Acting director John Farrell said the Ocean Drilling Program's 15-
        > year series of expeditions to explore the ocean floor had uncovered
        > evidence that gas hydrates have spilled into the ocean in massive
        > bursts repeatedly over the last 50,000 years. Evidence in tiny
        > plankton shells called ``forams'' show ``a chemical change in the
        > world's oceans that can only be explained by a lot of methane being
        > injected into the water.''
        >
        > Enormous Implications For World Climate
        >
        > Events of that kind have enormous implications for global climate
        > change because methane is a potent greenhouse gas. A large enough
        > release of methane, as in the Storegga Slide, could bring on or
        > accelerate a cycle of global warming.
        >
        > Warming cycles might already have been underway when such slides
        > occurred, triggered by some as-yet-unknown mechanism that warmed
        the
        > oceans enough to destabilize gas hydrates, which dissolve when
        > temperatures rise or pressures decrease.
        >
        > While release of methane from beneath the ocean floor could lead to
        a
        > vicious cycle of warming, Paull and other scientists caution there
        is
        > more at play. Rising sea levels would actually increase pressures
        on
        > those hydrate deposits, locking them in and perhaps leading to a
        > reverse cooling cycle.
        >
        > Whatever role they have played in the cycles of global climate
        > change -- as well as chemical changes in the oceans -- it is clear
        > that research into these odd combustible undersea ice formations is
        > essential to understanding planet Earth.
        >
        > In time, such research could lead to a way to predict or at least
        > calculate the risk of events like the Storegga Slide.
        >
        > ``If we understand what happened in the past, then we're in a
        better
        > position to anticipate the future,'' said Farrell.
        >
        > ``What we first have to do is make sure we know where these gas
        > hydrate layers are,'' through research like that being done by the
        > ODP, a partnership with seven international consortia representing
        > more than 20 countries. ``Then if we know about any factors that
        > affect the temperature and pressure .... we might ultimately reduce
        > the uncertainty'' about where and when the continental margins
        might
        > collapse and trigger tsunami.
        >
        > The world's largest Earth science research project, the ODP is
        > administered by the Joint Oceanographic Institutions funded in part
        > by the National Science Foundation. It will target an area off
        Oregon
        > in its next gas hydrate expedition, in 2002. "
        > .....
        >
        > What I think should be appreciated about Keeling Whorf and the
        > Younger Dryas is that the Mississippi lost its glacial lake
        sourcing,
        > so the microbrial biosphere lost its source of "food" in the GOM.
        The
        > water then flowed to the N. Pacific in a fairly inactive way,
        > biologically speaking, to a part of the ocean with little
        biological
        > activity. Hence, the change that occurred initially to mark the
        cold
        > snap of the Younger Dryas wasn't so much about fresh water capping
        as
        > it was about a significant change to the intermediate ocean
        > microbrial biosphere. A thousand years of cold conditions followed!
        > Doing a similar thing to the Gulf of California is making for dry
        > conditions in Los Angeles, as much of the rain is either monsoonal
        or
        > from winter snow fall to the mountains that would be impacted by
        the
        > monsoonal flow.
        >
        > It is true LA does not rely on local runoff for their water. It
        > relies on aqueducts from the Colorado, the Owens Valley and
        Northern
        > California. Low local rainfall does not really affect the human
        > population there. A huge proportion of the water, well over 90%
        goes
        > to agriculture. Residential water was a very small, albeit media
        > huge, amount. Also, the California coast from above San Francisco
        > south, gets almost all of its rainfall in the winter months. But a
        > regional drought will impact local hydrates directly and
        indirectly.
        >
        > Indeed, the history of water diversions from just north of L.A.
        make
        > some interesting history. Mountains with snow caps run water to the
        > cities, and from where I am near Lake Shasta in N. California, we
        are
        > sending water all the way to San Diego this year.
        >
        > Yet, indeed it was dry in N. California last year and in particular
        > on the Oregon-California border with the Klamath River. These dry
        > conditions are related to the conditions of the N. Pacific in
        > general, IMHO. That said, the dry conditions here in the last few
        > years take second place to when regional rivers went through a time
        > of heavy dams construction and reconstruction. This time with a
        > little Keeling Whorf cycling and Shasta Lake, for instance, which
        is
        > about 5 miles from me, was like half empty. And the Shasta dam
        > itself, when constructed, caused a relatively drier climate in the
        > region, IMHO. Why? Because the deforestation combined with the
        river
        > delays of flow, sedimentation and detritus into the summer months
        > reduced the intensity of the winter spring precipitation. If the
        > sedimentation, detritus and flow occur when the earth is angled
        away
        > from the sun in the winter and spring, the electrical interaction
        > with the atmosphere from the sun doesn't upset the electrical
        > enhancement created by biologically created electrical insolation
        in
        > the context of ocean current derived electrical fields that enhance
        > cirrus.
        >
        > Interestingly, just after the Bay Series quake, there was a law
        > passed called CALFED to balance the competing use interests on the
        > Sacramento. One of those interests were waterfowl in the Bay
        Estuary.
        > So there always was a managed flow, from then, to the Bay. Perhaps
        > low but always steady, always enough. Since then there has not been
        > significant siesmic activity or drought!
        >
        > What I am saying about the Colorado and Lake Mead is that in the
        past
        > they always let something go over in the spring but they stopped it
        > last year and the Mexicans haven't exactly been great about letting
        > some water flow to the ocean--and now they are paying for this
        policy
        > with drought. It is incredibly stupid.
      • fredwx
        ...one possible reason is that it appears we are entering a cold phase of the PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) This has the effect of altering the path of the
        Message 3 of 7 , May 6, 2002
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          ...one possible reason is that it appears we are entering a cold
          phase of the PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation)

          This has the effect of altering the path of the jet stream. The jet
          stream in the northern hemisphere delivers storms across the United
          States. The PDO phase that we appear to have entered will act to
          steer the jet stream further north over the Western United States
          (less rain). If the PDO has switched we will likely see 20-30 years
          with lower rainfall.




          --- In methanehydrateclub@y..., fredwx <no_reply@y...> wrote:
          > You said "First, warmer oceans mean that they are more specifically
          > conductive--less resistive to electrical currents. This is related
          to
          > the cold SSTs to the top of the N. Pacific gyre, IMHO, and hence,
          > provides less rain to S. Cal."
          >
          > SST's are below normal over the eastern North Pacific and I agree
          > that the dry weather is a likely result.
          >
          >
          http://psbsgi1.nesdis.noaa.gov:8080/PSB/EPS/SST/data/anomnight.4.30.20
          > 02.gif
          >
          > ....but there could be other reasons for this besides electrical
          > currents.
          >
          >
          >
          >
          >
          > --- In methanehydrateclub@y..., "pawnfart" <mike@u...> wrote:
          > > L.A. is having the driest year since records were recorded--four
          > > inches of rain so far.
          > >
          > > Last year it was decided to take run off from excess spring rains
          > > that over flow from Lake Mead and run them to California. This
          was
          > > despite the damage already caused by CAP--see
          > > http://www.geocities.com/NapaValley/8339/CAP.html That decision
          > looks
          > > pretty dumb from where I sit.
          > >
          > > But there is also an issue of warmer oceans. Warmer, again, means
          > > more conductive, and for west to east moving currents, it means
          > less
          > > cirrus.
          > >
          > > No El Nino is also hard on S. Cal rain conditions.
          > >
          > > So is 30,000 dams built in Asia over the past 30 years,
          culminated
          > > with the Three Gorge diversion and relocation to the delta, and
          > delta
          > > sedimentation retention projects for land for these people to
          live.
          > >
          > >
          > >
          > > Here are some thoughts back, first in cryptic form and then
          perhaps
          > > some code breaking background--I hope it communicates. First,
          > warmer
          > > oceans mean that they are more specifically conductive--less
          > > resistive to electrical currents. This is related to the cold
          SSTs
          > to
          > > the top of the N. Pacific gyre, IMHO, and hence, provides less
          rain
          > > to S. Cal. That is because a more conductive ocean cuts both
          ways,
          > > including an idea that currents moving from west to east will
          > induct
          > > against cirrus enhancement per the IR measures discussed in
          Lindzen
          > > and Fu's papers (yes, they ignore direction of current in their
          > > papers but their data is solid if not their mechanism
          conclusions).
          > > Second, 30,000 dams have been built in Asia over the past 30
          years,
          > > culminated by Three Gorge. That means more electrical leakage or
          > less
          > > Gaia insulation. Third, recent changes in output from Lake Mead,
          > > although not the same as building Hoover and creating a Dust
          Bowl,
          > > have had significant impact on SW climate. Specifically, recently
          a
          > > controversy arose relative to the American Mexican treaty over
          > water
          > > to the Gulf of California and the health of the estuary as it
          > > pertained to these dolphins there, and the Mexicans asked that
          > > spring "overspill" from Lake Mead continue, and the Americans
          > elected
          > > to send this water to California via ducts. Not wise--as it has
          > > caused record dry conditions in the region--to include mountains
          in
          > > S. Cal that eventually run off S. Cal rivers to methane hydrate
          > > fields along the S. Cal coast. From a biological standpoint,
          > > conditions are very electrically poor for S. Cal and it is
          starting
          > > to show in poor rainfall amounts
          > >
          > > .....
          > >
          > > The microbiology and chemistry of hydrate formation throws in
          great
          > > complexity in the methanogens role in climate. In my view, as
          most
          > of
          > > you know, the oceans and climate is much more of a living,
          > biological
          > > process than many consider it to be. The complexity confuses many
          > > against seeing the biological aspect. One reason is that methane
          > > hydrate only forms provided extreme conditions AND CONCENTRATIONS
          > of
          > > methane are satisfied. This means there must be lots of methane
          > > concentrated in one place or the methane just dissolves in the
          > water
          > > without forming the ice crystal. There is a good example to see
          how
          > > this is true by experiment. CO2 also forms an additional gas
          > hydrate
          > > similar to methane hydrates, and researchers have designed, for
          > > instance, a torpedo shaped block of frozen CO2, which turns out
          to
          > be
          > > denser than ocean water, that when released from a ship, will
          fall
          > to
          > > the sand at the depths of the ocean and get wedged into it--then
          > form
          > > CO2 hydrate, that although as a hydrate is less dense than the
          > water,
          > > as buried in sand will be 'heavy' enough to stay there. This is
          > > actually a patented idea as a way of carbon sequestration.
          Anyway,
          > > methane hydrate researchers looking into this type of thing have
          > > taken CO2 down to the depths, under 1,280 feet, in robots and
          > > released it in concentrated form. The CO2 spills out and forms a
          > gas
          > > hydrate. But right next to the hydrate is are fish swimming about-
          -
          > in
          > > a picture taken of this process! So, the CO2 coming out of their
          > > gills doesn't turn to hydrate, and the O2 they must breath into
          > their
          > > gills isn't ice! A type of protein has evolved in fish that
          > prevents
          > > hydrates from forming! Hence, the archaebacteria, in the
          symbiotic
          > > process to make methane for hydrates in the intermediate depths
          of
          > > the oceans, must make it in sufficient concentrations for it to
          > form.
          > > This sets up a more narrow set of parameters where sufficient
          > > biological conditions must first exist for the microbrial
          activity
          > to
          > > be sufficient to form sufficient concentrations for it to form.
          > This
          > > sets up a more narrow set of parameters where sufficient
          biological
          > > conditions must first exist for the microbrial activity to be
          > > sufficient to form significant hydrate activity.
          > >
          > > For instance, look at the history of the Younger Dryas and
          current
          > > dogma about its cause fresh water capping from the diversion of
          the
          > > Mississippi headwaters to the east to the N. Atlantic. A river
          > fresh
          > > off a glacier, I suspect, doesn't biologically cut it. And if a
          > river
          > > that once flowed out of huge glacial lakes then becomes
          > substantially
          > > less flowing, with less sedimentation and detritus, then the
          > hydrate
          > > activity will substantially decrease.
          > >
          > >
          > > In this case, the significant change is relative to the Gulf of
          > > California. Hydrates are located there:
          > >
          > > http://woodshole.er.usgs.gov/project-pages/hydrates/where.html
          > >
          > > They don't form in shallows--they require 1,275 feet of water or
          > > more.
          > >
          > > They are found on the US west coast as far south as off the coast
          > of
          > > Santa Barbara. Understand the counter current would move
          NORTHWEST.
          > > So, applicable to what I am talking about, they are found IN THE
          > GULF
          > > OF CALIFORNIA.
          > >
          > >
          > > http://www.dri.edu/Projects/Monsoon/3empirical.html
          > >
          > > The monsoon in the SW depends on the surface temperatures of the
          > > waters in the Gulf of California.
          > >
          > > Waters from the tropics in that region tend to move along the
          coast
          > > in a NW manner and peel off west with the N. Pacific gyre.
          > >
          > > The study involved non-El Nino period so that wind direction of
          > > consequence is generally constant for the study. This leave a
          > > question what varied the SSTs. As I have tried to explain, SSTs
          are
          > > MODULATED by the biosphere with energies from IR movements by
          > cirrus
          > > cloud behavior that can change energies absorbed in the range of
          > > between 50 and 200 watts per meter squared per Lindzen and Fu's
          > > papers. Over time scales of a few weeks, this kind of energy is
          > > sufficient to move SSTs!
          > >
          > > What I would like to do is talk for a moment about Keeling Whorf
          > > (K/W) and tidal changes. IMHO, tides not only alter how the
          oceans
          > > move against the beaches, but also how currents move in the
          > > intermediate oceans. While K/W is not much of a factor right now
          on
          > > these kind of timescales it is illistrative of the feedback
          > involved
          > > on shorter periods by way of example.
          > >
          > > I have talked about depressurization of hydrates from K/W before,
          > but
          > > there is also an idea of simple melting from changes in ocean
          > > currents. If there is a lot of sloshing around, to put it
          crudely,
          > > than underneath the gyres, which are the warmest and hence most
          > > electrically significant aspect of climate, than the swath of
          > hydrate
          > > activity underneath the gyres is going to be melted to a larger
          > > extent. That means more electrical leakage. It would be like
          having
          > > MS--the myolin sheaths of nerve tissues becoming defective--the
          > > biological signal to climate is short circuited. Here is a blurb
          > from
          > > K/Ws paper:
          > >
          > >
          > >
          > > "The IRD event (number 5) near 8,100 yr BP is particularly
          > noteworthy
          > > because it appears to be associated with the most abrupt and
          > > widespread climate shift known from the past 10 kyr (10); it is
          > > believed to have been initiated by a large freshwater pulse from
          > > Laurentide lakes, dated at 8,470 yr BP, that reduced surface
          ocean
          > > salinity in the North Atlantic Ocean, thereby causing widespread
          > > cooling near 8,200 yr BP (11). Two recently drilled sedimentary
          > cores
          > > show multiple IRD events between 8,300 and 7,400 yr BP (ref. 1,
          > Fig.
          > > 14). Together with the Elk Lake dust layer of 7,800 yr BP, these
          > data
          > > suggest prolonged or repeated cooling well beyond the time
          expected
          > > for a freshwater discharge to directly affect climate. The
          maximum
          > > tidal forcing near these events at 7,744 yr BP was the greatest
          in
          > > 20,000 years, preceded and succeeded by strong forcing at 8,089
          and
          > > 7,381 yr BP of the 360-yr tidal cycle. Thus the tidal hypothesis
          > > suggests that cooling initiated by a freshwater pulse may have
          been
          > > prolonged by tidal forcing. Also consistent with tidal forcing is
          > the
          > > possibility that the timing of the freshwater pulse occurred
          during
          > a
          > > warm phase of the 1,800-year tidal cycle, about 700 years before
          > > maximum forcing at 7,744 yr BP. "
          > >
          > > See figure
          > >
          > > http://www.pnas.org/cgi/content/full/97/8/3814/F7
          > >
          > > Both quote and figure from:
          > >
          > > http://www.pnas.org/cgi/content/full/070047197
          > >
          > > A mudslide of 8,000 years ago must be put into perspective of the
          > > Keeling Whorf research--and I think is somewhat related to the
          > > Younger Dryas in that the feedbacks out of the glacial hadn't
          > reached
          > > the biological stability we have today after the interglacial has
          > > persisted as long as it has:
          > >
          > > October 5 2000 12:12 PM ET Seabed Gas Crystal Formations Linked
          to
          > > Tsunami
          > >
          > > By Todd Eastham
          > >
          > >
          > > WASHINGTON (Reuters) - About 8,000 years ago, a massive undersea
          > > landslide off the coast of Norway sent a 30-foot wall of water --
          a
          > > tsunami wave -- barreling into the northern coast of Europe.
          > >
          > > If this were to recur today, as scientists say it could, almost
          > > anywhere in the world, it would cost billions if not tens of
          > billions
          > > of dollars to repair the damage to coastal cities. And the cost
          in
          > > lives could be far higher.
          > >
          > > ``A tsunami like that would wash into the Baltic with some
          > > devastation,'' said scientist Charles Paull at the Monterey Bay
          > > Aquarium Research Institute in Moss Landing, California.
          > >
          > > While scientists who study the so-called Storegga Slide with the
          > > tools of geology, biology and seismography are not sure what
          > > triggered it, they are fairly certain a mysterious crystalline
          > solid
          > > composed of water molecules intertwined with methane gas, known
          as
          > > methane or gas hydrates, played a role.
          > >
          > > Paull says an earthquake might have triggered the slide, which
          > > occurred in stages over hundreds of years, removing an enormous
          > chunk
          > > from Norway's continental margin. But its magnitude suggests
          > methane
          > > hydrates played a role.
          > >
          > > ``Whatever the trigger,'' he said in a phone interview, ``this is
          a
          > > natural disaster related to gas hydrates.''
          > >
          > > Methane hydrates, which scientists are studying as a possible
          vast
          > > global energy resource, are among the weirdest natural phenomena.
          > > Sometimes called ``flammable ice,'' they are just that: highly
          > > unstable and combustible crystallized solids existing only in a
          > high
          > > pressure/low temperature environment.
          > >
          > > Discovered by accident late in the 19th century by oil and gas
          > > exploration teams just below the Arctic permafrost, the odd
          > crystals
          > > are thought to contain more clean-burning fossil fuels than
          Earth's
          > > reserves of oil, natural gas and coal combined.
          > >
          > > Equally important is the key role they appear to play in the
          global
          > > climate and marine environment, as well as the occasional
          > cataclysmic
          > > undersea event.
          > >
          > > Acting director John Farrell said the Ocean Drilling Program's 15-
          > > year series of expeditions to explore the ocean floor had
          uncovered
          > > evidence that gas hydrates have spilled into the ocean in massive
          > > bursts repeatedly over the last 50,000 years. Evidence in tiny
          > > plankton shells called ``forams'' show ``a chemical change in the
          > > world's oceans that can only be explained by a lot of methane
          being
          > > injected into the water.''
          > >
          > > Enormous Implications For World Climate
          > >
          > > Events of that kind have enormous implications for global climate
          > > change because methane is a potent greenhouse gas. A large enough
          > > release of methane, as in the Storegga Slide, could bring on or
          > > accelerate a cycle of global warming.
          > >
          > > Warming cycles might already have been underway when such slides
          > > occurred, triggered by some as-yet-unknown mechanism that warmed
          > the
          > > oceans enough to destabilize gas hydrates, which dissolve when
          > > temperatures rise or pressures decrease.
          > >
          > > While release of methane from beneath the ocean floor could lead
          to
          > a
          > > vicious cycle of warming, Paull and other scientists caution
          there
          > is
          > > more at play. Rising sea levels would actually increase pressures
          > on
          > > those hydrate deposits, locking them in and perhaps leading to a
          > > reverse cooling cycle.
          > >
          > > Whatever role they have played in the cycles of global climate
          > > change -- as well as chemical changes in the oceans -- it is
          clear
          > > that research into these odd combustible undersea ice formations
          is
          > > essential to understanding planet Earth.
          > >
          > > In time, such research could lead to a way to predict or at least
          > > calculate the risk of events like the Storegga Slide.
          > >
          > > ``If we understand what happened in the past, then we're in a
          > better
          > > position to anticipate the future,'' said Farrell.
          > >
          > > ``What we first have to do is make sure we know where these gas
          > > hydrate layers are,'' through research like that being done by
          the
          > > ODP, a partnership with seven international consortia
          representing
          > > more than 20 countries. ``Then if we know about any factors that
          > > affect the temperature and pressure .... we might ultimately
          reduce
          > > the uncertainty'' about where and when the continental margins
          > might
          > > collapse and trigger tsunami.
          > >
          > > The world's largest Earth science research project, the ODP is
          > > administered by the Joint Oceanographic Institutions funded in
          part
          > > by the National Science Foundation. It will target an area off
          > Oregon
          > > in its next gas hydrate expedition, in 2002. "
          > > .....
          > >
          > > What I think should be appreciated about Keeling Whorf and the
          > > Younger Dryas is that the Mississippi lost its glacial lake
          > sourcing,
          > > so the microbrial biosphere lost its source of "food" in the GOM.
          > The
          > > water then flowed to the N. Pacific in a fairly inactive way,
          > > biologically speaking, to a part of the ocean with little
          > biological
          > > activity. Hence, the change that occurred initially to mark the
          > cold
          > > snap of the Younger Dryas wasn't so much about fresh water
          capping
          > as
          > > it was about a significant change to the intermediate ocean
          > > microbrial biosphere. A thousand years of cold conditions
          followed!
          > > Doing a similar thing to the Gulf of California is making for dry
          > > conditions in Los Angeles, as much of the rain is either
          monsoonal
          > or
          > > from winter snow fall to the mountains that would be impacted by
          > the
          > > monsoonal flow.
          > >
          > > It is true LA does not rely on local runoff for their water. It
          > > relies on aqueducts from the Colorado, the Owens Valley and
          > Northern
          > > California. Low local rainfall does not really affect the human
          > > population there. A huge proportion of the water, well over 90%
          > goes
          > > to agriculture. Residential water was a very small, albeit media
          > > huge, amount. Also, the California coast from above San Francisco
          > > south, gets almost all of its rainfall in the winter months. But
          a
          > > regional drought will impact local hydrates directly and
          > indirectly.
          > >
          > > Indeed, the history of water diversions from just north of L.A.
          > make
          > > some interesting history. Mountains with snow caps run water to
          the
          > > cities, and from where I am near Lake Shasta in N. California, we
          > are
          > > sending water all the way to San Diego this year.
          > >
          > > Yet, indeed it was dry in N. California last year and in
          particular
          > > on the Oregon-California border with the Klamath River. These dry
          > > conditions are related to the conditions of the N. Pacific in
          > > general, IMHO. That said, the dry conditions here in the last few
          > > years take second place to when regional rivers went through a
          time
          > > of heavy dams construction and reconstruction. This time with a
          > > little Keeling Whorf cycling and Shasta Lake, for instance, which
          > is
          > > about 5 miles from me, was like half empty. And the Shasta dam
          > > itself, when constructed, caused a relatively drier climate in
          the
          > > region, IMHO. Why? Because the deforestation combined with the
          > river
          > > delays of flow, sedimentation and detritus into the summer months
          > > reduced the intensity of the winter spring precipitation. If the
          > > sedimentation, detritus and flow occur when the earth is angled
          > away
          > > from the sun in the winter and spring, the electrical interaction
          > > with the atmosphere from the sun doesn't upset the electrical
          > > enhancement created by biologically created electrical insolation
          > in
          > > the context of ocean current derived electrical fields that
          enhance
          > > cirrus.
          > >
          > > Interestingly, just after the Bay Series quake, there was a law
          > > passed called CALFED to balance the competing use interests on
          the
          > > Sacramento. One of those interests were waterfowl in the Bay
          > Estuary.
          > > So there always was a managed flow, from then, to the Bay.
          Perhaps
          > > low but always steady, always enough. Since then there has not
          been
          > > significant siesmic activity or drought!
          > >
          > > What I am saying about the Colorado and Lake Mead is that in the
          > past
          > > they always let something go over in the spring but they stopped
          it
          > > last year and the Mexicans haven't exactly been great about
          letting
          > > some water flow to the ocean--and now they are paying for this
          > policy
          > > with drought. It is incredibly stupid.
        • pawnfart
          Fred, Let me respond to both of your posts. This link: http://crwua.mwd.dst.ca.us/lor/crwua_lor.htm gives some history of water use before the 1930s and it is
          Message 4 of 7 , May 6, 2002
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            Fred,

            Let me respond to both of your posts.

            This link:

            http://crwua.mwd.dst.ca.us/lor/crwua_lor.htm

            gives some history of water use before the 1930s and it is clear that
            there was diversions, including in 1932 for the Hoover dam. Then
            there is the Imperial Valley Salt Lake deal and the water use issues
            of the 7 states and Mexico. Don't forget that there are two other
            main rivers--the Rio and the Mississippi. This history shows the tie
            in between the Rio and the Colorado and the water use fight. But the
            Mississippi is key, too. Understand at this point over the past 10
            years or so the Mississippi is going the other way--with too much sed
            and flow comparted to the Colorado and Rio.

            The Mississippi has changed its course numerous times by human
            activity in the past (there are, of course, natural changes). Many of
            the man made changes occurred upstream before 1924, to prevent local
            flooding and erosion. But on the delta itself a major change occurred
            in 1924, when the Inner Harbor Navigation Canal, or the Industrial
            Canal was opened, linking the Mississippi River with a "lake." The
            Army Corps of Engineers built spillways, that prevent breaks, that
            can be opened if New Orleans is threatened by a flood crest. Much of
            the water that flows into Lake Pontchartrain comes as a result of man-
            made operations. Then in 1931 the Corps of Engineers built the Bonnet
            Carre Spillway.

            The timing of these major changes to the rivers matches perfectly
            with the Dust Bowl, only altered in minor ways by ENSO.

            As far as there being other factors, I again would point to the
            Keeling Whorf and Fu papers in terms of the inverse relationship
            between cloud wieghted SSTs and cirrus and say that the forcing from
            clouds is extremely significant and controlling--otherwise no Gaia
            and we wouldn't be here. The forcing from cirrus also should be
            thought of as modulating. Therefore, the cold oceans and
            thermohaline is a product of modulation, not that STTs are a normal
            state where chaotic events alter them. So what we have here is a
            changing modulation based on a key forcing changing, not some chaotic
            event in the context of chaotic behavior. The problem is much
            different than that.

            --- In methanehydrateclub@y..., fredwx <no_reply@y...> wrote:
            > You said "First, warmer oceans mean that they are more specifically
            > conductive--less resistive to electrical currents. This is related
            to
            > the cold SSTs to the top of the N. Pacific gyre, IMHO, and hence,
            > provides less rain to S. Cal."
            >
            > SST's are below normal over the eastern North Pacific and I agree
            > that the dry weather is a likely result.
            >
            >
            http://psbsgi1.nesdis.noaa.gov:8080/PSB/EPS/SST/data/anomnight.4.30.20
            > 02.gif
            >
            > ....but there could be other reasons for this besides electrical
            > currents.
            >
            >
            >
            >
            >
            > --- In methanehydrateclub@y..., "pawnfart" <mike@u...> wrote:
            > > L.A. is having the driest year since records were recorded--four
            > > inches of rain so far.
            > >
            > > Last year it was decided to take run off from excess spring rains
            > > that over flow from Lake Mead and run them to California. This
            was
            > > despite the damage already caused by CAP--see
            > > http://www.geocities.com/NapaValley/8339/CAP.html That decision
            > looks
            > > pretty dumb from where I sit.
            > >
            > > But there is also an issue of warmer oceans. Warmer, again, means
            > > more conductive, and for west to east moving currents, it means
            > less
            > > cirrus.
            > >
            > > No El Nino is also hard on S. Cal rain conditions.
            > >
            > > So is 30,000 dams built in Asia over the past 30 years,
            culminated
            > > with the Three Gorge diversion and relocation to the delta, and
            > delta
            > > sedimentation retention projects for land for these people to
            live.
            > >
            > >
            > >
            > > Here are some thoughts back, first in cryptic form and then
            perhaps
            > > some code breaking background--I hope it communicates. First,
            > warmer
            > > oceans mean that they are more specifically conductive--less
            > > resistive to electrical currents. This is related to the cold
            SSTs
            > to
            > > the top of the N. Pacific gyre, IMHO, and hence, provides less
            rain
            > > to S. Cal. That is because a more conductive ocean cuts both
            ways,
            > > including an idea that currents moving from west to east will
            > induct
            > > against cirrus enhancement per the IR measures discussed in
            Lindzen
            > > and Fu's papers (yes, they ignore direction of current in their
            > > papers but their data is solid if not their mechanism
            conclusions).
            > > Second, 30,000 dams have been built in Asia over the past 30
            years,
            > > culminated by Three Gorge. That means more electrical leakage or
            > less
            > > Gaia insulation. Third, recent changes in output from Lake Mead,
            > > although not the same as building Hoover and creating a Dust
            Bowl,
            > > have had significant impact on SW climate. Specifically, recently
            a
            > > controversy arose relative to the American Mexican treaty over
            > water
            > > to the Gulf of California and the health of the estuary as it
            > > pertained to these dolphins there, and the Mexicans asked that
            > > spring "overspill" from Lake Mead continue, and the Americans
            > elected
            > > to send this water to California via ducts. Not wise--as it has
            > > caused record dry conditions in the region--to include mountains
            in
            > > S. Cal that eventually run off S. Cal rivers to methane hydrate
            > > fields along the S. Cal coast. From a biological standpoint,
            > > conditions are very electrically poor for S. Cal and it is
            starting
            > > to show in poor rainfall amounts
            > >
            > > .....
            > >
            > > The microbiology and chemistry of hydrate formation throws in
            great
            > > complexity in the methanogens role in climate. In my view, as
            most
            > of
            > > you know, the oceans and climate is much more of a living,
            > biological
            > > process than many consider it to be. The complexity confuses many
            > > against seeing the biological aspect. One reason is that methane
            > > hydrate only forms provided extreme conditions AND CONCENTRATIONS
            > of
            > > methane are satisfied. This means there must be lots of methane
            > > concentrated in one place or the methane just dissolves in the
            > water
            > > without forming the ice crystal. There is a good example to see
            how
            > > this is true by experiment. CO2 also forms an additional gas
            > hydrate
            > > similar to methane hydrates, and researchers have designed, for
            > > instance, a torpedo shaped block of frozen CO2, which turns out
            to
            > be
            > > denser than ocean water, that when released from a ship, will
            fall
            > to
            > > the sand at the depths of the ocean and get wedged into it--then
            > form
            > > CO2 hydrate, that although as a hydrate is less dense than the
            > water,
            > > as buried in sand will be 'heavy' enough to stay there. This is
            > > actually a patented idea as a way of carbon sequestration.
            Anyway,
            > > methane hydrate researchers looking into this type of thing have
            > > taken CO2 down to the depths, under 1,280 feet, in robots and
            > > released it in concentrated form. The CO2 spills out and forms a
            > gas
            > > hydrate. But right next to the hydrate is are fish swimming
            about--
            > in
            > > a picture taken of this process! So, the CO2 coming out of their
            > > gills doesn't turn to hydrate, and the O2 they must breath into
            > their
            > > gills isn't ice! A type of protein has evolved in fish that
            > prevents
            > > hydrates from forming! Hence, the archaebacteria, in the
            symbiotic
            > > process to make methane for hydrates in the intermediate depths
            of
            > > the oceans, must make it in sufficient concentrations for it to
            > form.
            > > This sets up a more narrow set of parameters where sufficient
            > > biological conditions must first exist for the microbrial
            activity
            > to
            > > be sufficient to form sufficient concentrations for it to form.
            > This
            > > sets up a more narrow set of parameters where sufficient
            biological
            > > conditions must first exist for the microbrial activity to be
            > > sufficient to form significant hydrate activity.
            > >
            > > For instance, look at the history of the Younger Dryas and
            current
            > > dogma about its cause fresh water capping from the diversion of
            the
            > > Mississippi headwaters to the east to the N. Atlantic. A river
            > fresh
            > > off a glacier, I suspect, doesn't biologically cut it. And if a
            > river
            > > that once flowed out of huge glacial lakes then becomes
            > substantially
            > > less flowing, with less sedimentation and detritus, then the
            > hydrate
            > > activity will substantially decrease.
            > >
            > >
            > > In this case, the significant change is relative to the Gulf of
            > > California. Hydrates are located there:
            > >
            > > http://woodshole.er.usgs.gov/project-pages/hydrates/where.html
            > >
            > > They don't form in shallows--they require 1,275 feet of water or
            > > more.
            > >
            > > They are found on the US west coast as far south as off the coast
            > of
            > > Santa Barbara. Understand the counter current would move
            NORTHWEST.
            > > So, applicable to what I am talking about, they are found IN THE
            > GULF
            > > OF CALIFORNIA.
            > >
            > >
            > > http://www.dri.edu/Projects/Monsoon/3empirical.html
            > >
            > > The monsoon in the SW depends on the surface temperatures of the
            > > waters in the Gulf of California.
            > >
            > > Waters from the tropics in that region tend to move along the
            coast
            > > in a NW manner and peel off west with the N. Pacific gyre.
            > >
            > > The study involved non-El Nino period so that wind direction of
            > > consequence is generally constant for the study. This leave a
            > > question what varied the SSTs. As I have tried to explain, SSTs
            are
            > > MODULATED by the biosphere with energies from IR movements by
            > cirrus
            > > cloud behavior that can change energies absorbed in the range of
            > > between 50 and 200 watts per meter squared per Lindzen and Fu's
            > > papers. Over time scales of a few weeks, this kind of energy is
            > > sufficient to move SSTs!
            > >
            > > What I would like to do is talk for a moment about Keeling Whorf
            > > (K/W) and tidal changes. IMHO, tides not only alter how the
            oceans
            > > move against the beaches, but also how currents move in the
            > > intermediate oceans. While K/W is not much of a factor right now
            on
            > > these kind of timescales it is illistrative of the feedback
            > involved
            > > on shorter periods by way of example.
            > >
            > > I have talked about depressurization of hydrates from K/W before,
            > but
            > > there is also an idea of simple melting from changes in ocean
            > > currents. If there is a lot of sloshing around, to put it
            crudely,
            > > than underneath the gyres, which are the warmest and hence most
            > > electrically significant aspect of climate, than the swath of
            > hydrate
            > > activity underneath the gyres is going to be melted to a larger
            > > extent. That means more electrical leakage. It would be like
            having
            > > MS--the myolin sheaths of nerve tissues becoming defective--the
            > > biological signal to climate is short circuited. Here is a blurb
            > from
            > > K/Ws paper:
            > >
            > >
            > >
            > > "The IRD event (number 5) near 8,100 yr BP is particularly
            > noteworthy
            > > because it appears to be associated with the most abrupt and
            > > widespread climate shift known from the past 10 kyr (10); it is
            > > believed to have been initiated by a large freshwater pulse from
            > > Laurentide lakes, dated at 8,470 yr BP, that reduced surface
            ocean
            > > salinity in the North Atlantic Ocean, thereby causing widespread
            > > cooling near 8,200 yr BP (11). Two recently drilled sedimentary
            > cores
            > > show multiple IRD events between 8,300 and 7,400 yr BP (ref. 1,
            > Fig.
            > > 14). Together with the Elk Lake dust layer of 7,800 yr BP, these
            > data
            > > suggest prolonged or repeated cooling well beyond the time
            expected
            > > for a freshwater discharge to directly affect climate. The
            maximum
            > > tidal forcing near these events at 7,744 yr BP was the greatest
            in
            > > 20,000 years, preceded and succeeded by strong forcing at 8,089
            and
            > > 7,381 yr BP of the 360-yr tidal cycle. Thus the tidal hypothesis
            > > suggests that cooling initiated by a freshwater pulse may have
            been
            > > prolonged by tidal forcing. Also consistent with tidal forcing is
            > the
            > > possibility that the timing of the freshwater pulse occurred
            during
            > a
            > > warm phase of the 1,800-year tidal cycle, about 700 years before
            > > maximum forcing at 7,744 yr BP. "
            > >
            > > See figure
            > >
            > > http://www.pnas.org/cgi/content/full/97/8/3814/F7
            > >
            > > Both quote and figure from:
            > >
            > > http://www.pnas.org/cgi/content/full/070047197
            > >
            > > A mudslide of 8,000 years ago must be put into perspective of the
            > > Keeling Whorf research--and I think is somewhat related to the
            > > Younger Dryas in that the feedbacks out of the glacial hadn't
            > reached
            > > the biological stability we have today after the interglacial has
            > > persisted as long as it has:
            > >
            > > October 5 2000 12:12 PM ET Seabed Gas Crystal Formations Linked
            to
            > > Tsunami
            > >
            > > By Todd Eastham
            > >
            > >
            > > WASHINGTON (Reuters) - About 8,000 years ago, a massive undersea
            > > landslide off the coast of Norway sent a 30-foot wall of water --
            a
            > > tsunami wave -- barreling into the northern coast of Europe.
            > >
            > > If this were to recur today, as scientists say it could, almost
            > > anywhere in the world, it would cost billions if not tens of
            > billions
            > > of dollars to repair the damage to coastal cities. And the cost
            in
            > > lives could be far higher.
            > >
            > > ``A tsunami like that would wash into the Baltic with some
            > > devastation,'' said scientist Charles Paull at the Monterey Bay
            > > Aquarium Research Institute in Moss Landing, California.
            > >
            > > While scientists who study the so-called Storegga Slide with the
            > > tools of geology, biology and seismography are not sure what
            > > triggered it, they are fairly certain a mysterious crystalline
            > solid
            > > composed of water molecules intertwined with methane gas, known
            as
            > > methane or gas hydrates, played a role.
            > >
            > > Paull says an earthquake might have triggered the slide, which
            > > occurred in stages over hundreds of years, removing an enormous
            > chunk
            > > from Norway's continental margin. But its magnitude suggests
            > methane
            > > hydrates played a role.
            > >
            > > ``Whatever the trigger,'' he said in a phone interview, ``this is
            a
            > > natural disaster related to gas hydrates.''
            > >
            > > Methane hydrates, which scientists are studying as a possible
            vast
            > > global energy resource, are among the weirdest natural phenomena.
            > > Sometimes called ``flammable ice,'' they are just that: highly
            > > unstable and combustible crystallized solids existing only in a
            > high
            > > pressure/low temperature environment.
            > >
            > > Discovered by accident late in the 19th century by oil and gas
            > > exploration teams just below the Arctic permafrost, the odd
            > crystals
            > > are thought to contain more clean-burning fossil fuels than
            Earth's
            > > reserves of oil, natural gas and coal combined.
            > >
            > > Equally important is the key role they appear to play in the
            global
            > > climate and marine environment, as well as the occasional
            > cataclysmic
            > > undersea event.
            > >
            > > Acting director John Farrell said the Ocean Drilling Program's 15-
            > > year series of expeditions to explore the ocean floor had
            uncovered
            > > evidence that gas hydrates have spilled into the ocean in massive
            > > bursts repeatedly over the last 50,000 years. Evidence in tiny
            > > plankton shells called ``forams'' show ``a chemical change in the
            > > world's oceans that can only be explained by a lot of methane
            being
            > > injected into the water.''
            > >
            > > Enormous Implications For World Climate
            > >
            > > Events of that kind have enormous implications for global climate
            > > change because methane is a potent greenhouse gas. A large enough
            > > release of methane, as in the Storegga Slide, could bring on or
            > > accelerate a cycle of global warming.
            > >
            > > Warming cycles might already have been underway when such slides
            > > occurred, triggered by some as-yet-unknown mechanism that warmed
            > the
            > > oceans enough to destabilize gas hydrates, which dissolve when
            > > temperatures rise or pressures decrease.
            > >
            > > While release of methane from beneath the ocean floor could lead
            to
            > a
            > > vicious cycle of warming, Paull and other scientists caution
            there
            > is
            > > more at play. Rising sea levels would actually increase pressures
            > on
            > > those hydrate deposits, locking them in and perhaps leading to a
            > > reverse cooling cycle.
            > >
            > > Whatever role they have played in the cycles of global climate
            > > change -- as well as chemical changes in the oceans -- it is
            clear
            > > that research into these odd combustible undersea ice formations
            is
            > > essential to understanding planet Earth.
            > >
            > > In time, such research could lead to a way to predict or at least
            > > calculate the risk of events like the Storegga Slide.
            > >
            > > ``If we understand what happened in the past, then we're in a
            > better
            > > position to anticipate the future,'' said Farrell.
            > >
            > > ``What we first have to do is make sure we know where these gas
            > > hydrate layers are,'' through research like that being done by
            the
            > > ODP, a partnership with seven international consortia
            representing
            > > more than 20 countries. ``Then if we know about any factors that
            > > affect the temperature and pressure .... we might ultimately
            reduce
            > > the uncertainty'' about where and when the continental margins
            > might
            > > collapse and trigger tsunami.
            > >
            > > The world's largest Earth science research project, the ODP is
            > > administered by the Joint Oceanographic Institutions funded in
            part
            > > by the National Science Foundation. It will target an area off
            > Oregon
            > > in its next gas hydrate expedition, in 2002. "
            > > .....
            > >
            > > What I think should be appreciated about Keeling Whorf and the
            > > Younger Dryas is that the Mississippi lost its glacial lake
            > sourcing,
            > > so the microbrial biosphere lost its source of "food" in the GOM.
            > The
            > > water then flowed to the N. Pacific in a fairly inactive way,
            > > biologically speaking, to a part of the ocean with little
            > biological
            > > activity. Hence, the change that occurred initially to mark the
            > cold
            > > snap of the Younger Dryas wasn't so much about fresh water
            capping
            > as
            > > it was about a significant change to the intermediate ocean
            > > microbrial biosphere. A thousand years of cold conditions
            followed!
            > > Doing a similar thing to the Gulf of California is making for dry
            > > conditions in Los Angeles, as much of the rain is either
            monsoonal
            > or
            > > from winter snow fall to the mountains that would be impacted by
            > the
            > > monsoonal flow.
            > >
            > > It is true LA does not rely on local runoff for their water. It
            > > relies on aqueducts from the Colorado, the Owens Valley and
            > Northern
            > > California. Low local rainfall does not really affect the human
            > > population there. A huge proportion of the water, well over 90%
            > goes
            > > to agriculture. Residential water was a very small, albeit media
            > > huge, amount. Also, the California coast from above San Francisco
            > > south, gets almost all of its rainfall in the winter months. But
            a
            > > regional drought will impact local hydrates directly and
            > indirectly.
            > >
            > > Indeed, the history of water diversions from just north of L.A.
            > make
            > > some interesting history. Mountains with snow caps run water to
            the
            > > cities, and from where I am near Lake Shasta in N. California, we
            > are
            > > sending water all the way to San Diego this year.
            > >
            > > Yet, indeed it was dry in N. California last year and in
            particular
            > > on the Oregon-California border with the Klamath River. These dry
            > > conditions are related to the conditions of the N. Pacific in
            > > general, IMHO. That said, the dry conditions here in the last few
            > > years take second place to when regional rivers went through a
            time
            > > of heavy dams construction and reconstruction. This time with a
            > > little Keeling Whorf cycling and Shasta Lake, for instance, which
            > is
            > > about 5 miles from me, was like half empty. And the Shasta dam
            > > itself, when constructed, caused a relatively drier climate in
            the
            > > region, IMHO. Why? Because the deforestation combined with the
            > river
            > > delays of flow, sedimentation and detritus into the summer months
            > > reduced the intensity of the winter spring precipitation. If the
            > > sedimentation, detritus and flow occur when the earth is angled
            > away
            > > from the sun in the winter and spring, the electrical interaction
            > > with the atmosphere from the sun doesn't upset the electrical
            > > enhancement created by biologically created electrical insolation
            > in
            > > the context of ocean current derived electrical fields that
            enhance
            > > cirrus.
            > >
            > > Interestingly, just after the Bay Series quake, there was a law
            > > passed called CALFED to balance the competing use interests on
            the
            > > Sacramento. One of those interests were waterfowl in the Bay
            > Estuary.
            > > So there always was a managed flow, from then, to the Bay.
            Perhaps
            > > low but always steady, always enough. Since then there has not
            been
            > > significant siesmic activity or drought!
            > >
            > > What I am saying about the Colorado and Lake Mead is that in the
            > past
            > > they always let something go over in the spring but they stopped
            it
            > > last year and the Mexicans haven't exactly been great about
            letting
            > > some water flow to the ocean--and now they are paying for this
            > policy
            > > with drought. It is incredibly stupid.
          • fredwx
            Regarding Hoover: A diversion around the dam construction site was done in 1932. This allowed the water to flow around the site but did not restrict the total
            Message 5 of 7 , May 6, 2002
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              Regarding Hoover:
              A diversion around the dam construction site was done in 1932. This
              allowed the water to flow around the site but did not restrict the
              total flow. Water was not restricted prior to 1935.

              RE The Mississippi:
              There were a long series of dams along the Mississippi for many years
              prior to as well as during the 1930's so you can not fix any of these
              as the cause of the dust bowl.

              1884 -- First major reservior system - Leech, Winnibigoshish,
              Pokegama, Minnesota
              1910 -- First dam with a hydroelectric plant - Lock & Dam 1,
              Minneapolis, Minnesota
              1907 Congress authorized a six-foot channel.
              1914 Dam built at Keokuk, Iowa to produce hydroelectric power.
              1924 Congress established the Upper Mississippi Wild Life and Fish
              Refuge.
              1930's Dams built to deepen the main channel to nine feet, over
              objection of Izaak Walton League.

              Fred



              --- In methanehydrateclub@y..., "pawnfart" <mike@u...> wrote:
              > Fred,
              >
              > Let me respond to both of your posts.
              >
              > This link:
              >
              > http://crwua.mwd.dst.ca.us/lor/crwua_lor.htm
              >
              > gives some history of water use before the 1930s and it is clear
              that
              > there was diversions, including in 1932 for the Hoover dam. Then
              > there is the Imperial Valley Salt Lake deal and the water use
              issues
              > of the 7 states and Mexico. Don't forget that there are two other
              > main rivers--the Rio and the Mississippi. This history shows the
              tie
              > in between the Rio and the Colorado and the water use fight. But
              the
              > Mississippi is key, too. Understand at this point over the past 10
              > years or so the Mississippi is going the other way--with too much
              sed
              > and flow comparted to the Colorado and Rio.
              >
              > The Mississippi has changed its course numerous times by human
              > activity in the past (there are, of course, natural changes). Many
              of
              > the man made changes occurred upstream before 1924, to prevent
              local
              > flooding and erosion. But on the delta itself a major change
              occurred
              > in 1924, when the Inner Harbor Navigation Canal, or the Industrial
              > Canal was opened, linking the Mississippi River with a "lake." The
              > Army Corps of Engineers built spillways, that prevent breaks, that
              > can be opened if New Orleans is threatened by a flood crest. Much
              of
              > the water that flows into Lake Pontchartrain comes as a result of
              man-
              > made operations. Then in 1931 the Corps of Engineers built the
              Bonnet
              > Carre Spillway.
              >
              > The timing of these major changes to the rivers matches perfectly
              > with the Dust Bowl, only altered in minor ways by ENSO.
              >
              > As far as there being other factors, I again would point to the
              > Keeling Whorf and Fu papers in terms of the inverse relationship
              > between cloud wieghted SSTs and cirrus and say that the forcing
              from
              > clouds is extremely significant and controlling--otherwise no Gaia
              > and we wouldn't be here. The forcing from cirrus also should be
              > thought of as modulating. Therefore, the cold oceans and
              > thermohaline is a product of modulation, not that STTs are a normal
              > state where chaotic events alter them. So what we have here is a
              > changing modulation based on a key forcing changing, not some
              chaotic
              > event in the context of chaotic behavior. The problem is much
              > different than that.
              >
              > --- In methanehydrateclub@y..., fredwx <no_reply@y...> wrote:
              > > You said "First, warmer oceans mean that they are more
              specifically
              > > conductive--less resistive to electrical currents. This is
              related
              > to
              > > the cold SSTs to the top of the N. Pacific gyre, IMHO, and hence,
              > > provides less rain to S. Cal."
              > >
              > > SST's are below normal over the eastern North Pacific and I agree
              > > that the dry weather is a likely result.
              > >
              > >
              >
              http://psbsgi1.nesdis.noaa.gov:8080/PSB/EPS/SST/data/anomnight.4.30.20
              > > 02.gif
              > >
              > > ....but there could be other reasons for this besides electrical
              > > currents.
              > >
              > >
              > >
              > >
              > >
              > > --- In methanehydrateclub@y..., "pawnfart" <mike@u...> wrote:
              > > > L.A. is having the driest year since records were recorded--
              four
              > > > inches of rain so far.
              > > >
              > > > Last year it was decided to take run off from excess spring
              rains
              > > > that over flow from Lake Mead and run them to California. This
              > was
              > > > despite the damage already caused by CAP--see
              > > > http://www.geocities.com/NapaValley/8339/CAP.html That decision
              > > looks
              > > > pretty dumb from where I sit.
              > > >
              > > > But there is also an issue of warmer oceans. Warmer, again,
              means
              > > > more conductive, and for west to east moving currents, it means
              > > less
              > > > cirrus.
              > > >
              > > > No El Nino is also hard on S. Cal rain conditions.
              > > >
              > > > So is 30,000 dams built in Asia over the past 30 years,
              > culminated
              > > > with the Three Gorge diversion and relocation to the delta, and
              > > delta
              > > > sedimentation retention projects for land for these people to
              > live.
              > > >
              > > >
              > > >
              > > > Here are some thoughts back, first in cryptic form and then
              > perhaps
              > > > some code breaking background--I hope it communicates. First,
              > > warmer
              > > > oceans mean that they are more specifically conductive--less
              > > > resistive to electrical currents. This is related to the cold
              > SSTs
              > > to
              > > > the top of the N. Pacific gyre, IMHO, and hence, provides less
              > rain
              > > > to S. Cal. That is because a more conductive ocean cuts both
              > ways,
              > > > including an idea that currents moving from west to east will
              > > induct
              > > > against cirrus enhancement per the IR measures discussed in
              > Lindzen
              > > > and Fu's papers (yes, they ignore direction of current in their
              > > > papers but their data is solid if not their mechanism
              > conclusions).
              > > > Second, 30,000 dams have been built in Asia over the past 30
              > years,
              > > > culminated by Three Gorge. That means more electrical leakage
              or
              > > less
              > > > Gaia insulation. Third, recent changes in output from Lake
              Mead,
              > > > although not the same as building Hoover and creating a Dust
              > Bowl,
              > > > have had significant impact on SW climate. Specifically,
              recently
              > a
              > > > controversy arose relative to the American Mexican treaty over
              > > water
              > > > to the Gulf of California and the health of the estuary as it
              > > > pertained to these dolphins there, and the Mexicans asked that
              > > > spring "overspill" from Lake Mead continue, and the Americans
              > > elected
              > > > to send this water to California via ducts. Not wise--as it has
              > > > caused record dry conditions in the region--to include
              mountains
              > in
              > > > S. Cal that eventually run off S. Cal rivers to methane hydrate
              > > > fields along the S. Cal coast. From a biological standpoint,
              > > > conditions are very electrically poor for S. Cal and it is
              > starting
              > > > to show in poor rainfall amounts
              > > >
              > > > .....
              > > >
              > > > The microbiology and chemistry of hydrate formation throws in
              > great
              > > > complexity in the methanogens role in climate. In my view, as
              > most
              > > of
              > > > you know, the oceans and climate is much more of a living,
              > > biological
              > > > process than many consider it to be. The complexity confuses
              many
              > > > against seeing the biological aspect. One reason is that
              methane
              > > > hydrate only forms provided extreme conditions AND
              CONCENTRATIONS
              > > of
              > > > methane are satisfied. This means there must be lots of methane
              > > > concentrated in one place or the methane just dissolves in the
              > > water
              > > > without forming the ice crystal. There is a good example to see
              > how
              > > > this is true by experiment. CO2 also forms an additional gas
              > > hydrate
              > > > similar to methane hydrates, and researchers have designed, for
              > > > instance, a torpedo shaped block of frozen CO2, which turns out
              > to
              > > be
              > > > denser than ocean water, that when released from a ship, will
              > fall
              > > to
              > > > the sand at the depths of the ocean and get wedged into it--
              then
              > > form
              > > > CO2 hydrate, that although as a hydrate is less dense than the
              > > water,
              > > > as buried in sand will be 'heavy' enough to stay there. This is
              > > > actually a patented idea as a way of carbon sequestration.
              > Anyway,
              > > > methane hydrate researchers looking into this type of thing
              have
              > > > taken CO2 down to the depths, under 1,280 feet, in robots and
              > > > released it in concentrated form. The CO2 spills out and forms
              a
              > > gas
              > > > hydrate. But right next to the hydrate is are fish swimming
              > about--
              > > in
              > > > a picture taken of this process! So, the CO2 coming out of
              their
              > > > gills doesn't turn to hydrate, and the O2 they must breath into
              > > their
              > > > gills isn't ice! A type of protein has evolved in fish that
              > > prevents
              > > > hydrates from forming! Hence, the archaebacteria, in the
              > symbiotic
              > > > process to make methane for hydrates in the intermediate depths
              > of
              > > > the oceans, must make it in sufficient concentrations for it to
              > > form.
              > > > This sets up a more narrow set of parameters where sufficient
              > > > biological conditions must first exist for the microbrial
              > activity
              > > to
              > > > be sufficient to form sufficient concentrations for it to form.
              > > This
              > > > sets up a more narrow set of parameters where sufficient
              > biological
              > > > conditions must first exist for the microbrial activity to be
              > > > sufficient to form significant hydrate activity.
              > > >
              > > > For instance, look at the history of the Younger Dryas and
              > current
              > > > dogma about its cause fresh water capping from the diversion of
              > the
              > > > Mississippi headwaters to the east to the N. Atlantic. A river
              > > fresh
              > > > off a glacier, I suspect, doesn't biologically cut it. And if a
              > > river
              > > > that once flowed out of huge glacial lakes then becomes
              > > substantially
              > > > less flowing, with less sedimentation and detritus, then the
              > > hydrate
              > > > activity will substantially decrease.
              > > >
              > > >
              > > > In this case, the significant change is relative to the Gulf of
              > > > California. Hydrates are located there:
              > > >
              > > > http://woodshole.er.usgs.gov/project-pages/hydrates/where.html
              > > >
              > > > They don't form in shallows--they require 1,275 feet of water
              or
              > > > more.
              > > >
              > > > They are found on the US west coast as far south as off the
              coast
              > > of
              > > > Santa Barbara. Understand the counter current would move
              > NORTHWEST.
              > > > So, applicable to what I am talking about, they are found IN
              THE
              > > GULF
              > > > OF CALIFORNIA.
              > > >
              > > >
              > > > http://www.dri.edu/Projects/Monsoon/3empirical.html
              > > >
              > > > The monsoon in the SW depends on the surface temperatures of
              the
              > > > waters in the Gulf of California.
              > > >
              > > > Waters from the tropics in that region tend to move along the
              > coast
              > > > in a NW manner and peel off west with the N. Pacific gyre.
              > > >
              > > > The study involved non-El Nino period so that wind direction of
              > > > consequence is generally constant for the study. This leave a
              > > > question what varied the SSTs. As I have tried to explain, SSTs
              > are
              > > > MODULATED by the biosphere with energies from IR movements by
              > > cirrus
              > > > cloud behavior that can change energies absorbed in the range
              of
              > > > between 50 and 200 watts per meter squared per Lindzen and Fu's
              > > > papers. Over time scales of a few weeks, this kind of energy is
              > > > sufficient to move SSTs!
              > > >
              > > > What I would like to do is talk for a moment about Keeling
              Whorf
              > > > (K/W) and tidal changes. IMHO, tides not only alter how the
              > oceans
              > > > move against the beaches, but also how currents move in the
              > > > intermediate oceans. While K/W is not much of a factor right
              now
              > on
              > > > these kind of timescales it is illistrative of the feedback
              > > involved
              > > > on shorter periods by way of example.
              > > >
              > > > I have talked about depressurization of hydrates from K/W
              before,
              > > but
              > > > there is also an idea of simple melting from changes in ocean
              > > > currents. If there is a lot of sloshing around, to put it
              > crudely,
              > > > than underneath the gyres, which are the warmest and hence most
              > > > electrically significant aspect of climate, than the swath of
              > > hydrate
              > > > activity underneath the gyres is going to be melted to a larger
              > > > extent. That means more electrical leakage. It would be like
              > having
              > > > MS--the myolin sheaths of nerve tissues becoming defective--the
              > > > biological signal to climate is short circuited. Here is a
              blurb
              > > from
              > > > K/Ws paper:
              > > >
              > > >
              > > >
              > > > "The IRD event (number 5) near 8,100 yr BP is particularly
              > > noteworthy
              > > > because it appears to be associated with the most abrupt and
              > > > widespread climate shift known from the past 10 kyr (10); it is
              > > > believed to have been initiated by a large freshwater pulse
              from
              > > > Laurentide lakes, dated at 8,470 yr BP, that reduced surface
              > ocean
              > > > salinity in the North Atlantic Ocean, thereby causing
              widespread
              > > > cooling near 8,200 yr BP (11). Two recently drilled sedimentary
              > > cores
              > > > show multiple IRD events between 8,300 and 7,400 yr BP (ref. 1,
              > > Fig.
              > > > 14). Together with the Elk Lake dust layer of 7,800 yr BP,
              these
              > > data
              > > > suggest prolonged or repeated cooling well beyond the time
              > expected
              > > > for a freshwater discharge to directly affect climate. The
              > maximum
              > > > tidal forcing near these events at 7,744 yr BP was the greatest
              > in
              > > > 20,000 years, preceded and succeeded by strong forcing at 8,089
              > and
              > > > 7,381 yr BP of the 360-yr tidal cycle. Thus the tidal
              hypothesis
              > > > suggests that cooling initiated by a freshwater pulse may have
              > been
              > > > prolonged by tidal forcing. Also consistent with tidal forcing
              is
              > > the
              > > > possibility that the timing of the freshwater pulse occurred
              > during
              > > a
              > > > warm phase of the 1,800-year tidal cycle, about 700 years
              before
              > > > maximum forcing at 7,744 yr BP. "
              > > >
              > > > See figure
              > > >
              > > > http://www.pnas.org/cgi/content/full/97/8/3814/F7
              > > >
              > > > Both quote and figure from:
              > > >
              > > > http://www.pnas.org/cgi/content/full/070047197
              > > >
              > > > A mudslide of 8,000 years ago must be put into perspective of
              the
              > > > Keeling Whorf research--and I think is somewhat related to the
              > > > Younger Dryas in that the feedbacks out of the glacial hadn't
              > > reached
              > > > the biological stability we have today after the interglacial
              has
              > > > persisted as long as it has:
              > > >
              > > > October 5 2000 12:12 PM ET Seabed Gas Crystal Formations Linked
              > to
              > > > Tsunami
              > > >
              > > > By Todd Eastham
              > > >
              > > >
              > > > WASHINGTON (Reuters) - About 8,000 years ago, a massive
              undersea
              > > > landslide off the coast of Norway sent a 30-foot wall of water -
              -
              > a
              > > > tsunami wave -- barreling into the northern coast of Europe.
              > > >
              > > > If this were to recur today, as scientists say it could, almost
              > > > anywhere in the world, it would cost billions if not tens of
              > > billions
              > > > of dollars to repair the damage to coastal cities. And the cost
              > in
              > > > lives could be far higher.
              > > >
              > > > ``A tsunami like that would wash into the Baltic with some
              > > > devastation,'' said scientist Charles Paull at the Monterey Bay
              > > > Aquarium Research Institute in Moss Landing, California.
              > > >
              > > > While scientists who study the so-called Storegga Slide with
              the
              > > > tools of geology, biology and seismography are not sure what
              > > > triggered it, they are fairly certain a mysterious crystalline
              > > solid
              > > > composed of water molecules intertwined with methane gas, known
              > as
              > > > methane or gas hydrates, played a role.
              > > >
              > > > Paull says an earthquake might have triggered the slide, which
              > > > occurred in stages over hundreds of years, removing an enormous
              > > chunk
              > > > from Norway's continental margin. But its magnitude suggests
              > > methane
              > > > hydrates played a role.
              > > >
              > > > ``Whatever the trigger,'' he said in a phone interview, ``this
              is
              > a
              > > > natural disaster related to gas hydrates.''
              > > >
              > > > Methane hydrates, which scientists are studying as a possible
              > vast
              > > > global energy resource, are among the weirdest natural
              phenomena.
              > > > Sometimes called ``flammable ice,'' they are just that: highly
              > > > unstable and combustible crystallized solids existing only in a
              > > high
              > > > pressure/low temperature environment.
              > > >
              > > > Discovered by accident late in the 19th century by oil and gas
              > > > exploration teams just below the Arctic permafrost, the odd
              > > crystals
              > > > are thought to contain more clean-burning fossil fuels than
              > Earth's
              > > > reserves of oil, natural gas and coal combined.
              > > >
              > > > Equally important is the key role they appear to play in the
              > global
              > > > climate and marine environment, as well as the occasional
              > > cataclysmic
              > > > undersea event.
              > > >
              > > > Acting director John Farrell said the Ocean Drilling Program's
              15-
              > > > year series of expeditions to explore the ocean floor had
              > uncovered
              > > > evidence that gas hydrates have spilled into the ocean in
              massive
              > > > bursts repeatedly over the last 50,000 years. Evidence in tiny
              > > > plankton shells called ``forams'' show ``a chemical change in
              the
              > > > world's oceans that can only be explained by a lot of methane
              > being
              > > > injected into the water.''
              > > >
              > > > Enormous Implications For World Climate
              > > >
              > > > Events of that kind have enormous implications for global
              climate
              > > > change because methane is a potent greenhouse gas. A large
              enough
              > > > release of methane, as in the Storegga Slide, could bring on or
              > > > accelerate a cycle of global warming.
              > > >
              > > > Warming cycles might already have been underway when such
              slides
              > > > occurred, triggered by some as-yet-unknown mechanism that
              warmed
              > > the
              > > > oceans enough to destabilize gas hydrates, which dissolve when
              > > > temperatures rise or pressures decrease.
              > > >
              > > > While release of methane from beneath the ocean floor could
              lead
              > to
              > > a
              > > > vicious cycle of warming, Paull and other scientists caution
              > there
              > > is
              > > > more at play. Rising sea levels would actually increase
              pressures
              > > on
              > > > those hydrate deposits, locking them in and perhaps leading to
              a
              > > > reverse cooling cycle.
              > > >
              > > > Whatever role they have played in the cycles of global climate
              > > > change -- as well as chemical changes in the oceans -- it is
              > clear
              > > > that research into these odd combustible undersea ice
              formations
              > is
              > > > essential to understanding planet Earth.
              > > >
              > > > In time, such research could lead to a way to predict or at
              least
              > > > calculate the risk of events like the Storegga Slide.
              > > >
              > > > ``If we understand what happened in the past, then we're in a
              > > better
              > > > position to anticipate the future,'' said Farrell.
              > > >
              > > > ``What we first have to do is make sure we know where these gas
              > > > hydrate layers are,'' through research like that being done by
              > the
              > > > ODP, a partnership with seven international consortia
              > representing
              > > > more than 20 countries. ``Then if we know about any factors
              that
              > > > affect the temperature and pressure .... we might ultimately
              > reduce
              > > > the uncertainty'' about where and when the continental margins
              > > might
              > > > collapse and trigger tsunami.
              > > >
              > > > The world's largest Earth science research project, the ODP is
              > > > administered by the Joint Oceanographic Institutions funded in
              > part
              > > > by the National Science Foundation. It will target an area off
              > > Oregon
              > > > in its next gas hydrate expedition, in 2002. "
              > > > .....
              > > >
              > > > What I think should be appreciated about Keeling Whorf and the
              > > > Younger Dryas is that the Mississippi lost its glacial lake
              > > sourcing,
              > > > so the microbrial biosphere lost its source of "food" in the
              GOM.
              > > The
              > > > water then flowed to the N. Pacific in a fairly inactive way,
              > > > biologically speaking, to a part of the ocean with little
              > > biological
              > > > activity. Hence, the change that occurred initially to mark the
              > > cold
              > > > snap of the Younger Dryas wasn't so much about fresh water
              > capping
              > > as
              > > > it was about a significant change to the intermediate ocean
              > > > microbrial biosphere. A thousand years of cold conditions
              > followed!
              > > > Doing a similar thing to the Gulf of California is making for
              dry
              > > > conditions in Los Angeles, as much of the rain is either
              > monsoonal
              > > or
              > > > from winter snow fall to the mountains that would be impacted
              by
              > > the
              > > > monsoonal flow.
              > > >
              > > > It is true LA does not rely on local runoff for their water. It
              > > > relies on aqueducts from the Colorado, the Owens Valley and
              > > Northern
              > > > California. Low local rainfall does not really affect the human
              > > > population there. A huge proportion of the water, well over
              90%
              > > goes
              > > > to agriculture. Residential water was a very small, albeit
              media
              > > > huge, amount. Also, the California coast from above San
              Francisco
              > > > south, gets almost all of its rainfall in the winter months.
              But
              > a
              > > > regional drought will impact local hydrates directly and
              > > indirectly.
              > > >
              > > > Indeed, the history of water diversions from just north of L.A.
              > > make
              > > > some interesting history. Mountains with snow caps run water to
              > the
              > > > cities, and from where I am near Lake Shasta in N. California,
              we
              > > are
              > > > sending water all the way to San Diego this year.
              > > >
              > > > Yet, indeed it was dry in N. California last year and in
              > particular
              > > > on the Oregon-California border with the Klamath River. These
              dry
              > > > conditions are related to the conditions of the N. Pacific in
              > > > general, IMHO. That said, the dry conditions here in the last
              few
              > > > years take second place to when regional rivers went through a
              > time
              > > > of heavy dams construction and reconstruction. This time with a
              > > > little Keeling Whorf cycling and Shasta Lake, for instance,
              which
              > > is
              > > > about 5 miles from me, was like half empty. And the Shasta dam
              > > > itself, when constructed, caused a relatively drier climate in
              > the
              > > > region, IMHO. Why? Because the deforestation combined with the
              > > river
              > > > delays of flow, sedimentation and detritus into the summer
              months
              > > > reduced the intensity of the winter spring precipitation. If
              the
              > > > sedimentation, detritus and flow occur when the earth is angled
              > > away
              > > > from the sun in the winter and spring, the electrical
              interaction
              > > > with the atmosphere from the sun doesn't upset the electrical
              > > > enhancement created by biologically created electrical
              insolation
              > > in
              > > > the context of ocean current derived electrical fields that
              > enhance
              > > > cirrus.
              > > >
              > > > Interestingly, just after the Bay Series quake, there was a law
              > > > passed called CALFED to balance the competing use interests on
              > the
              > > > Sacramento. One of those interests were waterfowl in the Bay
              > > Estuary.
              > > > So there always was a managed flow, from then, to the Bay.
              > Perhaps
              > > > low but always steady, always enough. Since then there has not
              > been
              > > > significant siesmic activity or drought!
              > > >
              > > > What I am saying about the Colorado and Lake Mead is that in
              the
              > > past
              > > > they always let something go over in the spring but they
              stopped
              > it
              > > > last year and the Mexicans haven't exactly been great about
              > letting
              > > > some water flow to the ocean--and now they are paying for this
              > > policy
              > > > with drought. It is incredibly stupid.
            • pawnfart
              Fred, I think you have to be careful with your analysis. I agree with the facts you state but not what it means to the feedbacks I am describing, and I think
              Message 6 of 7 , May 6, 2002
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                Fred,

                I think you have to be careful with your analysis. I agree with the
                facts you state but not what it means to the feedbacks I am
                describing, and I think you are leaving out some key facts.

                Leading up to the Black Sunday, Easter, 1935, there was a prolonged
                and sustained drought in the heartland, that dated back to the mid-
                1920s. The human activity on those rivers occurred in the 1920s and
                1930s and culminated with things like the Inner Harbor Navigation
                Canal in 1924 or the Lake Pontchartrain projects in 1931 and the
                Hoover in 1931. Also understand that if the Colorado causes low
                monsoonal air flow or a lowered sub tropical jet, the rain that would
                land in the heartland won't flow out the Mississippi and Rio
                floodplains--so that there is a sort of compounding impact from west
                to east with these rivers.

                But what I wanted you to notice from the link I provided was that
                there was a great struggle to settle riperian rights that ended in
                early 1920s. That means that the 7 states were then free to start
                piping off water BEFORE the 1930s, AND THEY DID!!!!

                This is key. It isn't what happened in Minnesota up river 1,500
                miles that matters to the microbrial biosphere in the GOM--but this
                biosphere IS impact with large man made delta lakes or massive
                concrete dams and million of acre feet siphoned off by 7 states.
                Don't you see?

                To show how this has happened before in history w/ the Colorado--
                check this out. In 1903 the Mexicans messed up w/ a diversion
                channel and the Imperial valley in Southern California was turned
                into a large salt lake! This occurred during an El Nino when
                rainfall is historically high in the SW AND HURRICANCE ACTIVITY IS
                REDUCED. Now, check out the ENSO PATTERN:

                ++++++++++++++++++++

                El Niño Years La Niña Years

                1900-1901 1903-1904

                1902-1903 1906-1907

                1905-1906 1908-1909


                And then look at the hurricane seasons:


                http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1901/

                http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1902/

                http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1903/

                http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1904/

                http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1905/

                http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1906/

                http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1907/

                I think what you should notice is there is a decided drop off of near
                Texas TS after the Sultan Sea creation during La Nina years when
                historically TS activity in general increases! Likewise, this year,
                we seeing very dry conditions in much of western Texas--which feeds
                the Rio and gives us biological conditions in the GOM for tropical
                activity!

                --- In methanehydrateclub@y..., fredwx <no_reply@y...> wrote:
                > Regarding Hoover:
                > A diversion around the dam construction site was done in 1932. This
                > allowed the water to flow around the site but did not restrict the
                > total flow. Water was not restricted prior to 1935.
                >
                > RE The Mississippi:
                > There were a long series of dams along the Mississippi for many
                years
                > prior to as well as during the 1930's so you can not fix any of
                these
                > as the cause of the dust bowl.
                >
                > 1884 -- First major reservior system - Leech, Winnibigoshish,
                > Pokegama, Minnesota
                > 1910 -- First dam with a hydroelectric plant - Lock & Dam 1,
                > Minneapolis, Minnesota
                > 1907 Congress authorized a six-foot channel.
                > 1914 Dam built at Keokuk, Iowa to produce hydroelectric power.
                > 1924 Congress established the Upper Mississippi Wild Life and Fish
                > Refuge.
                > 1930's Dams built to deepen the main channel to nine feet, over
                > objection of Izaak Walton League.
                >
                > Fred
                >
                >
                >
                > --- In methanehydrateclub@y..., "pawnfart" <mike@u...> wrote:
                > > Fred,
                > >
                > > Let me respond to both of your posts.
                > >
                > > This link:
                > >
                > > http://crwua.mwd.dst.ca.us/lor/crwua_lor.htm
                > >
                > > gives some history of water use before the 1930s and it is clear
                > that
                > > there was diversions, including in 1932 for the Hoover dam. Then
                > > there is the Imperial Valley Salt Lake deal and the water use
                > issues
                > > of the 7 states and Mexico. Don't forget that there are two
                other
                > > main rivers--the Rio and the Mississippi. This history shows the
                > tie
                > > in between the Rio and the Colorado and the water use fight. But
                > the
                > > Mississippi is key, too. Understand at this point over the past
                10
                > > years or so the Mississippi is going the other way--with too much
                > sed
                > > and flow comparted to the Colorado and Rio.
                > >
                > > The Mississippi has changed its course numerous times by human
                > > activity in the past (there are, of course, natural changes).
                Many
                > of
                > > the man made changes occurred upstream before 1924, to prevent
                > local
                > > flooding and erosion. But on the delta itself a major change
                > occurred
                > > in 1924, when the comes as a result of
                > man-
                > > made operations. Then in 1931 the Corps of Engineers built the
                > Bonnet
                > > Carre Spillway.
                > >
                > > The timing of these major changes to the rivers matches perfectly
                > > with the Dust Bowl, only altered in minor ways by ENSO.
                > >
                > > As far as there being other factors, I again would point to the
                > > Keeling Whorf and Fu papers in terms of the inverse relationship
                > > between cloud wieghted SSTs and cirrus and say that the forcing
                > from
                > > clouds is extremely significant and controlling--otherwise no
                Gaia
                > > and we wouldn't be here. The forcing from cirrus also should be
                > > thought of as modulating. Therefore, the cold oceans and
                > > thermohaline is a product of modulation, not that STTs are a
                normal
                > > state where chaotic events alter them. So what we have here is a
                > > changing modulation based on a key forcing changing, not some
                > chaotic
                > > event in the context of chaotic behavior. The problem is much
                > > different than that.
                > >
                > > --- In methanehydrateclub@y..., fredwx <no_reply@y...> wrote:
                > > > You said "First, warmer oceans mean that they are more
                > specifically
                > > > conductive--less resistive to electrical currents. This is
                > related
                > > to
                > > > the cold SSTs to the top of the N. Pacific gyre, IMHO, and
                hence,
                > > > provides less rain to S. Cal."
                > > >
                > > > SST's are below normal over the eastern North Pacific and I
                agree
                > > > that the dry weather is a likely result.
                > > >
                > > >
                > >
                >
                http://psbsgi1.nesdis.noaa.gov:8080/PSB/EPS/SST/data/anomnight.4.30.20
                > > > 02.gif
                > > >
                > > > ....but there could be other reasons for this besides
                electrical
                > > > currents.
                > > >
                > > >
                > > >
                > > >
                > > >
                > > > --- In methanehydrateclub@y..., "pawnfart" <mike@u...> wrote:
                > > > > L.A. is having the driest year since records were recorded--
                > four
                > > > > inches of rain so far.
                > > > >
                > > > > Last year it was decided to take run off from excess spring
                > rains
                > > > > that over flow from Lake Mead and run them to California.
                This
                > > was
                > > > > despite the damage already caused by CAP--see
                > > > > http://www.geocities.com/NapaValley/8339/CAP.html That
                decision
                > > > looks
                > > > > pretty dumb from where I sit.
                > > > >
                > > > > But there is also an issue of warmer oceans. Warmer, again,
                > means
                > > > > more conductive, and for west to east moving currents, it
                means
                > > > less
                > > > > cirrus.
                > > > >
                > > > > No El Nino is also hard on S. Cal rain conditions.
                > > > >
                > > > > So is 30,000 dams built in Asia over the past 30 years,
                > > culminated
                > > > > with the Three Gorge diversion and relocation to the delta,
                and
                > > > delta
                > > > > sedimentation retention projects for land for these people to
                > > live.
                > > > >
                > > > >
                > > > >
                > > > > Here are some thoughts back, first in cryptic form and then
                > > perhaps
                > > > > some code breaking background--I hope it communicates. First,
                > > > warmer
                > > > > oceans mean that they are more specifically conductive--less
                > > > > resistive to electrical currents. This is related to the cold
                > > SSTs
                > > > to
                > > > > the top of the N. Pacific gyre, IMHO, and hence, provides
                less
                > > rain
                > > > > to S. Cal. That is because a more conductive ocean cuts both
                > > ways,
                > > > > including an idea that currents moving from west to east will
                > > > induct
                > > > > against cirrus enhancement per the IR measures discussed in
                > > Lindzen
                > > > > and Fu's papers (yes, they ignore direction of current in
                their
                > > > > papers but their data is solid if not their mechanism
                > > conclusions).
                > > > > Second, 30,000 dams have been built in Asia over the past 30
                > > years,
                > > > > culminated by Three Gorge. That means more electrical leakage
                > or
                > > > less
                > > > > Gaia insulation. Third, recent changes in output from Lake
                > Mead,
                > > > > although not the same as building Hoover and creating a Dust
                > > Bowl,
                > > > > have had significant impact on SW climate. Specifically,
                > recently
                > > a
                > > > > controversy arose relative to the American Mexican treaty
                over
                > > > water
                > > > > to the Gulf of California and the health of the estuary as it
                > > > > pertained to these dolphins there, and the Mexicans asked
                that
                > > > > spring "overspill" from Lake Mead continue, and the Americans
                > > > elected
                > > > > to send this water to California via ducts. Not wise--as it
                has
                > > > > caused record dry conditions in the region--to include
                > mountains
                > > in
                > > > > S. Cal that eventually run off S. Cal rivers to methane
                hydrate
                > > > > fields along the S. Cal coast. From a biological standpoint,
                > > > > conditions are very electrically poor for S. Cal and it is
                > > starting
                > > > > to show in poor rainfall amounts
                > > > >
                > > > > .....
                > > > >
                > > > > The microbiology and chemistry of hydrate formation throws in
                > > great
                > > > > complexity in the methanogens role in climate. In my view, as
                > > most
                > > > of
                > > > > you know, the oceans and climate is much more of a living,
                > > > biological
                > > > > process than many consider it to be. The complexity confuses
                > many
                > > > > against seeing the biological aspect. One reason is that
                > methane
                > > > > hydrate only forms provided extreme conditions AND
                > CONCENTRATIONS
                > > > of
                > > > > methane are satisfied. This means there must be lots of
                methane
                > > > > concentrated in one place or the methane just dissolves in
                the
                > > > water
                > > > > without forming the ice crystal. There is a good example to
                see
                > > how
                > > > > this is true by experiment. CO2 also forms an additional gas
                > > > hydrate
                > > > > similar to methane hydrates, and researchers have designed,
                for
                > > > > instance, a torpedo shaped block of frozen CO2, which turns
                out
                > > to
                > > > be
                > > > > denser than ocean water, that when released from a ship, will
                > > fall
                > > > to
                > > > > the sand at the depths of the ocean and get wedged into it--
                > then
                > > > form
                > > > > CO2 hydrate, that although as a hydrate is less dense than
                the
                > > > water,
                > > > > as buried in sand will be 'heavy' enough to stay there. This
                is
                > > > > actually a patented idea as a way of carbon sequestration.
                > > Anyway,
                > > > > methane hydrate researchers looking into this type of thing
                > have
                > > > > taken CO2 down to the depths, under 1,280 feet, in robots and
                > > > > released it in concentrated form. The CO2 spills out and
                forms
                > a
                > > > gas
                > > > > hydrate. But right next to the hydrate is are fish swimming
                > > about--
                > > > in
                > > > > a picture taken of this process! So, the CO2 coming out of
                > their
                > > > > gills doesn't turn to hydrate, and the O2 they must breath
                into
                > > > their
                > > > > gills isn't ice! A type of protein has evolved in fish that
                > > > prevents
                > > > > hydrates from forming! Hence, the archaebacteria, in the
                > > symbiotic
                > > > > process to make methane for hydrates in the intermediate
                depths
                > > of
                > > > > the oceans, must make it in sufficient concentrations for it
                to
                > > > form.
                > > > > This sets up a more narrow set of parameters where sufficient
                > > > > biological conditions must first exist for the microbrial
                > > activity
                > > > to
                > > > > be sufficient to form sufficient concentrations for it to
                form.
                > > > This
                > > > > sets up a more narrow set of parameters where sufficient
                > > biological
                > > > > conditions must first exist for the microbrial activity to be
                > > > > sufficient to form significant hydrate activity.
                > > > >
                > > > > For instance, look at the history of the Younger Dryas and
                > > current
                > > > > dogma about its cause fresh water capping from the diversion
                of
                > > the
                > > > > Mississippi headwaters to the east to the N. Atlantic. A
                river
                > > > fresh
                > > > > off a glacier, I suspect, doesn't biologically cut it. And if
                a
                > > > river
                > > > > that once flowed out of huge glacial lakes then becomes
                > > > substantially
                > > > > less flowing, with less sedimentation and detritus, then the
                > > > hydrate
                > > > > activity will substantially decrease.
                > > > >
                > > > >
                > > > > In this case, the significant change is relative to the Gulf
                of
                > > > > California. Hydrates are located there:
                > > > >
                > > > > http://woodshole.er.usgs.gov/project-
                pages/hydrates/where.html
                > > > >
                > > > > They don't form in shallows--they require 1,275 feet of water
                > or
                > > > > more.
                > > > >
                > > > > They are found on the US west coast as far south as off the
                > coast
                > > > of
                > > > > Santa Barbara. Understand the counter current would move
                > > NORTHWEST.
                > > > > So, applicable to what I am talking about, they are found IN
                > THE
                > > > GULF
                > > > > OF CALIFORNIA.
                > > > >
                > > > >
                > > > > http://www.dri.edu/Projects/Monsoon/3empirical.html
                > > > >
                > > > > The monsoon in the SW depends on the surface temperatures of
                > the
                > > > > waters in the Gulf of California.
                > > > >
                > > > > Waters from the tropics in that region tend to move along the
                > > coast
                > > > > in a NW manner and peel off west with the N. Pacific gyre.
                > > > >
                > > > > The study involved non-El Nino period so that wind direction
                of
                > > > > consequence is generally constant for the study. This leave a
                > > > > question what varied the SSTs. As I have tried to explain,
                SSTs
                > > are
                > > > > MODULATED by the biosphere with energies from IR movements by
                > > > cirrus
                > > > > cloud behavior that can change energies absorbed in the range
                > of
                > > > > between 50 and 200 watts per meter squared per Lindzen and
                Fu's
                > > > > papers. Over time scales of a few weeks, this kind of energy
                is
                > > > > sufficient to move SSTs!
                > > > >
                > > > > What I would like to do is talk for a moment about Keeling
                > Whorf
                > > > > (K/W) and tidal changes. IMHO, tides not only alter how the
                > > oceans
                > > > > move against the beaches, but also how currents move in the
                > > > > intermediate oceans. While K/W is not much of a factor right
                > now
                > > on
                > > > > these kind of timescales it is illistrative of the feedback
                > > > involved
                > > > > on shorter periods by way of example.
                > > > >
                > > > > I have talked about depressurization of hydrates from K/W
                > before,
                > > > but
                > > > > there is also an idea of simple melting from changes in ocean
                > > > > currents. If there is a lot of sloshing around, to put it
                > > crudely,
                > > > > than underneath the gyres, which are the warmest and hence
                most
                > > > > electrically significant aspect of climate, than the swath of
                > > > hydrate
                > > > > activity underneath the gyres is going to be melted to a
                larger
                > > > > extent. That means more electrical leakage. It would be like
                > > having
                > > > > MS--the myolin sheaths of nerve tissues becoming defective--
                the
                > > > > biological signal to climate is short circuited. Here is a
                > blurb
                > > > from
                > > > > K/Ws paper:
                > > > >
                > > > >
                > > > >
                > > > > "The IRD event (number 5) near 8,100 yr BP is particularly
                > > > noteworthy
                > > > > because it appears to be associated with the most abrupt and
                > > > > widespread climate shift known from the past 10 kyr (10); it
                is
                > > > > believed to have been initiated by a large freshwater pulse
                > from
                > > > > Laurentide lakes, dated at 8,470 yr BP, that reduced surface
                > > ocean
                > > > > salinity in the North Atlantic Ocean, thereby causing
                > widespread
                > > > > cooling near 8,200 yr BP (11). Two recently drilled
                sedimentary
                > > > cores
                > > > > show multiple IRD events between 8,300 and 7,400 yr BP (ref.
                1,
                > > > Fig.
                > > > > 14). Together with the Elk Lake dust layer of 7,800 yr BP,
                > these
                > > > data
                > > > > suggest prolonged or repeated cooling well beyond the time
                > > expected
                > > > > for a freshwater discharge to directly affect climate. The
                > > maximum
                > > > > tidal forcing near these events at 7,744 yr BP was the
                greatest
                > > in
                > > > > 20,000 years, preceded and succeeded by strong forcing at
                8,089
                > > and
                > > > > 7,381 yr BP of the 360-yr tidal cycle. Thus the tidal
                > hypothesis
                > > > > suggests that cooling initiated by a freshwater pulse may
                have
                > > been
                > > > > prolonged by tidal forcing. Also consistent with tidal
                forcing
                > is
                > > > the
                > > > > possibility that the timing of the freshwater pulse occurred
                > > during
                > > > a
                > > > > warm phase of the 1,800-year tidal cycle, about 700 years
                > before
                > > > > maximum forcing at 7,744 yr BP. "
                > > > >
                > > > > See figure
                > > > >
                > > > > http://www.pnas.org/cgi/content/full/97/8/3814/F7
                > > > >
                > > > > Both quote and figure from:
                > > > >
                > > > > http://www.pnas.org/cgi/content/full/070047197
                > > > >
                > > > > A mudslide of 8,000 years ago must be put into perspective of
                > the
                > > > > Keeling Whorf research--and I think is somewhat related to
                the
                > > > > Younger Dryas in that the feedbacks out of the glacial hadn't
                > > > reached
                > > > > the biological stability we have today after the interglacial
                > has
                > > > > persisted as long as it has:
                > > > >
                > > > > October 5 2000 12:12 PM ET Seabed Gas Crystal Formations
                Linked
                > > to
                > > > > Tsunami
                > > > >
                > > > > By Todd Eastham
                > > > >
                > > > >
                > > > > WASHINGTON (Reuters) - About 8,000 years ago, a massive
                > undersea
                > > > > landslide off the coast of Norway sent a 30-foot wall of
                water -
                > -
                > > a
                > > > > tsunami wave -- barreling into the northern coast of Europe.
                > > > >
                > > > > If this were to recur today, as scientists say it could,
                almost
                > > > > anywhere in the world, it would cost billions if not tens of
                > > > billions
                > > > > of dollars to repair the damage to coastal cities. And the
                cost
                > > in
                > > > > lives could be far higher.
                > > > >
                > > > > ``A tsunami like that would wash into the Baltic with some
                > > > > devastation,'' said scientist Charles Paull at the Monterey
                Bay
                > > > > Aquarium Research Institute in Moss Landing, California.
                > > > >
                > > > > While scientists who study the so-called Storegga Slide with
                > the
                > > > > tools of geology, biology and seismography are not sure what
                > > > > triggered it, they are fairly certain a mysterious
                crystalline
                > > > solid
                > > > > composed of water molecules intertwined with methane gas,
                known
                > > as
                > > > > methane or gas hydrates, played a role.
                > > > >
                > > > > Paull says an earthquake might have triggered the slide,
                which
                > > > > occurred in stages over hundreds of years, removing an
                enormous
                > > > chunk
                > > > > from Norway's continental margin. But its magnitude suggests
                > > > methane
                > > > > hydrates played a role.
                > > > >
                > > > > ``Whatever the trigger,'' he said in a phone interview,
                ``this
                > is
                > > a
                > > > > natural disaster related to gas hydrates.''
                > > > >
                > > > > Methane hydrates, which scientists are studying as a possible
                > > vast
                > > > > global energy resource, are among the weirdest natural
                > phenomena.
                > > > > Sometimes called ``flammable ice,'' they are just that:
                highly
                > > > > unstable and combustible crystallized solids existing only in
                a
                > > > high
                > > > > pressure/low temperature environment.
                > > > >
                > > > > Discovered by accident late in the 19th century by oil and
                gas
                > > > > exploration teams just below the Arctic permafrost, the odd
                > > > crystals
                > > > > are thought to contain more clean-burning fossil fuels than
                > > Earth's
                > > > > reserves of oil, natural gas and coal combined.
                > > > >
                > > > > Equally important is the key role they appear to play in the
                > > global
                > > > > climate and marine environment, as well as the occasional
                > > > cataclysmic
                > > > > undersea event.
                > > > >
                > > > > Acting director John Farrell said the Ocean Drilling
                Program's
                > 15-
                > > > > year series of expeditions to explore the ocean floor had
                > > uncovered
                > > > > evidence that gas hydrates have spilled into the ocean in
                > massive
                > > > > bursts repeatedly over the last 50,000 years. Evidence in
                tiny
                > > > > plankton shells called ``forams'' show ``a chemical change in
                > the
                > > > > world's oceans that can only be explained by a lot of methane
                > > being
                > > > > injected into the water.''
                > > > >
                > > > > Enormous Implications For World Climate
                > > > >
                > > > > Events of that kind have enormous implications for global
                > climate
                > > > > change because methane is a potent greenhouse gas. A large
                > enough
                > > > > release of methane, as in the Storegga Slide, could bring on
                or
                > > > > accelerate a cycle of global warming.
                > > > >
                > > > > Warming cycles might already have been underway when such
                > slides
                > > > > occurred, triggered by some as-yet-unknown mechanism that
                > warmed
                > > > the
                > > > > oceans enough to destabilize gas hydrates, which dissolve
                when
                > > > > temperatures rise or pressures decrease.
                > > > >
                > > > > While release of methane from beneath the ocean floor could
                > lead
                > > to
                > > > a
                > > > > vicious cycle of warming, Paull and other scientists caution
                > > there
                > > > is
                > > > > more at play. Rising sea levels would actually increase
                > pressures
                > > > on
                > > > > those hydrate deposits, locking them in and perhaps leading
                to
                > a
                > > > > reverse cooling cycle.
                > > > >
                > > > > Whatever role they have played in the cycles of global
                climate
                > > > > change -- as well as chemical changes in the oceans -- it is
                > > clear
                > > > > that research into these odd combustible undersea ice
                > formations
                > > is
                > > > > essential to understanding planet Earth.
                > > > >
                > > > > In time, such research could lead to a way to predict or at
                > least
                > > > > calculate the risk of events like the Storegga Slide.
                > > > >
                > > > > ``If we understand what happened in the past, then we're in a
                > > > better
                > > > > position to anticipate the future,'' said Farrell.
                > > > >
                > > > > ``What we first have to do is make sure we know where these
                gas
                > > > > hydrate layers are,'' through research like that being done
                by
                > > the
                > > > > ODP, a partnership with seven international consortia
                > > representing
                > > > > more than 20 countries. ``Then if we know about any factors
                > that
                > > > > affect the temperature and pressure .... we might ultimately
                > > reduce
                > > > > the uncertainty'' about where and when the continental
                margins
                > > > might
                > > > > collapse and trigger tsunami.
                > > > >
                > > > > The world's largest Earth science research project, the ODP
                is
                > > > > administered by the Joint Oceanographic Institutions funded
                in
                > > part
                > > > > by the National Science Foundation. It will target an area
                off
                > > > Oregon
                > > > > in its next gas hydrate expedition, in 2002. "
                > > > > .....
                > > > >
                > > > > What I think should be appreciated about Keeling Whorf and
                the
                > > > > Younger Dryas is that the Mississippi lost its glacial lake
                > > > sourcing,
                > > > > so the microbrial biosphere lost its source of "food" in the
                > GOM.
                > > > The
                > > > > water then flowed to the N. Pacific in a fairly inactive way,
                > > > > biologically speaking, to a part of the ocean with little
                > > > biological
                > > > > activity. Hence, the change that occurred initially to mark
                the
                > > > cold
                > > > > snap of the Younger Dryas wasn't so much about fresh water
                > > capping
                > > > as
                > > > > it was about a significant change to the intermediate ocean
                > > > > microbrial biosphere. A thousand years of cold conditions
                > > followed!
                > > > > Doing a similar thing to the Gulf of California is making for
                > dry
                > > > > conditions in Los Angeles, as much of the rain is either
                > > monsoonal
                > > > or
                > > > > from winter snow fall to the mountains that would be impacted
                > by
                > > > the
                > > > > monsoonal flow.
                > > > >
                > > > > It is true LA does not rely on local runoff for their water.
                It
                > > > > relies on aqueducts from the Colorado, the Owens Valley and
                > > > Northern
                > > > > California. Low local rainfall does not really affect the
                human
                > > > > population there. A huge proportion of the water, well over
                > 90%
                > > > goes
                > > > > to agriculture. Residential water was a very small, albeit
                > media
                > > > > huge, amount. Also, the California coast from above San
                > Francisco
                > > > > south, gets almost all of its rainfall in the winter months.
                > But
                > > a
                > > > > regional drought will impact local hydrates directly and
                > > > indirectly.
                > > > >
                > > > > Indeed, the history of water diversions from just north of
                L.A.
                > > > make
                > > > > some interesting history. Mountains with snow caps run water
                to
                > > the
                > > > > cities, and from where I am near Lake Shasta in N.
                California,
                > we
                > > > are
                > > > > sending water all the way to San Diego this year.
                > > > >
                > > > > Yet, indeed it was dry in N. California last year and in
                > > particular
                > > > > on the Oregon-California border with the Klamath River. These
                > dry
                > > > > conditions are related to the conditions of the N. Pacific in
                > > > > general, IMHO. That said, the dry conditions here in the last
                > few
                > > > > years take second place to when regional rivers went through
                a
                > > time
                > > > > of heavy dams construction and reconstruction. This time with
                a
                > > > > little Keeling Whorf cycling and Shasta Lake, for instance,
                > which
                > > > is
                > > > > about 5 miles from me, was like half empty. And the Shasta
                dam
                > > > > itself, when constructed, caused a relatively drier climate
                in
                > > the
                > > > > region, IMHO. Why? Because the deforestation combined with
                the
                > > > river
                > > > > delays of flow, sedimentation and detritus into the summer
                > months
                > > > > reduced the intensity of the winter spring precipitation. If
                > the
                > > > > sedimentation, detritus and flow occur when the earth is
                angled
                > > > away
                > > > > from the sun in the winter and spring, the electrical
                > interaction
                > > > > with the atmosphere from the sun doesn't upset the electrical
                > > > > enhancement created by biologically created electrical
                > insolation
                > > > in
                > > > > the context of ocean current derived electrical fields that
                > > enhance
                > > > > cirrus.
                > > > >
                > > > > Interestingly, just after the Bay Series quake, there was a
                law
                > > > > passed called CALFED to balance the competing use interests
                on
                > > the
                > > > > Sacramento. One of those interests were waterfowl in the Bay
                > > > Estuary.
                > > > > So there always was a managed flow, from then, to the Bay.
                > > Perhaps
                > > > > low but always steady, always enough. Since then there has
                not
                > > been
                > > > > significant siesmic activity or drought!
                > > > >
                > > > > What I am saying about the Colorado and Lake Mead is that in
                > the
                > > > past
                > > > > they always let something go over in the spring but they
                > stopped
                > > it
                > > > > last year and the Mexicans haven't exactly been great about
                > > letting
                > > > > some water flow to the ocean--and now they are paying for
                this
                > > > policy
                > > > > with drought. It is incredibly stupid.
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