Solar activity report for 5/3/02
- The sunspot number is sharply higher this evening, as 6 different
sunspot groups have very recently rotated into view over the eastern
limb of the solar disk. Of the bunch, sunspot region 9934 is the
largest and looks like it has the greatest flare generating potential.
Regions 9926, which is near the western limb of the solar disk, and
9928, which is one of the new arrivals, might also kick off a flare or
two. The Earth is in the outskirts of a high-speed solar wind stream
this evening. The solar wind speed and density are mildly elevated,
but it doesn't appear to be enough to cause any significant
The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :
NOAA sunspot nunber : 242
SFI : 179
A index : 7
K index : 1
Solar wind speed : 382.8 km/sec
Solar wind density : 5.0 protons/cc
Solar wind pressure : 1.3 nPa
IMF : 6.5 nT
IMF Orientation : 2.9 nT South
Conditions for the last 24 hours :
No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.
Forecast for the next 24 hours :
Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be minor. Radio
blackouts reaching the R1 level are expected.
Solar activity forecast :
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. C-class flares are
expected to continue from a number of sunspot groups. Region 9934
remains the most likely source of M-class activity.
Geomagnetic activity forecast :
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. Enhanced
activity levels are possible on 05-06 May but a significant
disturbance from the LDE/CME discussed in Part IA is not expected.
Recent significant solar flare activity :