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QBO Comments

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  • pawnfart
    If you look at the field of biology before Crick and Watson and the discovery of DNA, you see a pattern of complex and confusing classification without much
    Message 1 of 1 , May 3, 2002
      If you look at the field of biology before Crick and Watson and the
      discovery of DNA, you see a pattern of complex and confusing
      classification without much descriptive or predictive power. Much is
      the same with meteorology and climate at this time. No better
      example is QBO (among other factors) used by Dr. Gray in his
      hurricane prediction. I am about to describe to you a cutting edge,
      not unlike Crick and Watson's discover, of a living, electrical
      planet where the QBO is very much a product. This framework is
      incredibly powerful.

      Let's start with the old to see the new. Here is Dr. Gray:


      "Other meteorological factors anticipated to influence 2002 hurricane
      activity include the following:

      3. The phase of the stratospheric Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) of
      zonal winds at 30 mb and 50 mb (which can be extrapolated six months
      into the future). These winds will be in the favorable westerly mode
      for this year."

      and from December:


      2001 Values for 2002 Forecast

      (1) - November 500 mb geopotential height (67.5-85N, 10E-50W) (+) -
      (2) - October-November SLP (45-65N, 120-160W) (-) -1.0
      (3) - September 500 mb geopotential height (35-55N, 100-120W) (+)
      (4) - July 50 mb U (5S-5N, 0-360) (-) -1.1
      (5) - September-November ENSO CLIPER forecast for NiƱo 3.4 (-) +

      "The parameters responsible for these skillful early December
      hindcasts included two measures of
      the nine-month extrapolated Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO) winds at
      30 and 50 mb . . . In
      addition it is almost certain that QBO 30 mb and 50 mb winds in
      September 2002 will be from a westerly
      direction. We view the latter as a modest enhancing factor for the
      formation of low latitude hurricanes to the east of the Antilles."

      What you should know about these factors is there solar application.
      Flaring particles of
      protons and electrons (electrons travel faster) pulse into the
      atmosphere and become part of the earth's
      electrical dyanamic. At low pressures, like 50 mb, the insulation
      impact of the air is minimal and the ion movement can be defined by
      the winds better. As ENSO is in significant part electrical, so is
      this indicator of it at low pressures near the equator. And as
      cirrus cloud measures (anything that looks at 500 mb is where cirrus
      clouds reside, you are essentially taking an electircal reading. If
      the reading is near Greenland, it is a non-biological reading more
      related to the earth's electro magnetic field and to ocean currents
      in general.

      I have already mentioned that the African factors are in error
      because of the dams built there--which is why Dr. Gray had to throw
      them out given what has happened to his forecasts over the past 7
      years. The biology of river run off from African rains had
      previously, before the dams, marked electrical insulation from
      hydrate activity and hence Cape Verde wave activity, impacting SSTs
      and hurricane probability down flow. With the dams, using data from
      before the dams is obscurred.

      500 mb is where high cirrus reside at the high pressure end (from 300
      mb). Where they are looking in the Dr. Gray graphic at the altitude
      of those cirrus is near the magnetic north, or at least as close as
      you can get in context with the major oceans of the Atlantic and
      Pacific. So, what this is saying to me, in yet another way, is that
      by looking at how solar flaring is impacting, in the context of Gaia,
      the electrical dynamic, and by looking at cirrus, a key forcing, you
      can determine hurricane
      activity, because ultimately cirrus are the key forcing per Fu and
      Lindzen's papers on iris. The QBO is a similar electrical reading.
      In the case of the QBO, the providing electrical constant is the
      expanding and contracting ionosphere, which causes electrical
      conductor movement through the electro-magnetical field of space
      there, in the context also of the global circuit, which itself
      inducts a electrical field upwards into space. The vectors from
      contraction and expansion are actually tangent to the earth's
      circumference toward what I would call an approximate mid-day
      position, such that the net vector is electrically upward facing.
      The only moving conducter in question in the atmosphere is the
      ionosphere, where higher pressure air is to insulative to conduct a
      current or present ions from collisions with solar wind ions or UV

      Here are two specific links on the QBO:



      Several concepts not currently expressed in the study of the QBO must
      be understood. It should be understood that the thin air at 50 mbs
      is composed of ions that have electrical properties. The ionosphere
      itself changes in size with the flaring cycle, increasing about 2
      percent to the peak of the 11 year cycle from min to max. The
      largest gyres (ignoring things like Rossby waves for a moment) in the
      oceans are in a sense electrically assymmetrical. What I mean by
      this is that to the top of gyres they move against electrical
      induction, from west to east, that puts electrical currents into the
      oceans. Yet, in the tropics the gyres in general move ocean currents
      from east to west. Yet, because the tropics are warmer, convection
      moves surface wind vectors in a more upward direction in the
      tropics! In addition to the major gyres like the Gulf Stream, there
      is the Equatorial current, which moves electrically, per Fleming's
      right hand rule essentially against cirrus enhancement, by, again,
      putting a vector of electrons down into the oceans. Also in
      addition, there is the circumpolar current that navigates Antarctica--
      again, west to east to reduce cirrus. That is why in the second link
      above the upper level winds show the hemispheric pattern in the last

      Now, the movement of QBO winds also follow a Fleming rule--called the
      LEFT hand rule. The right hand rule is how a movement in a conducter
      through a magnetic field can induct a current, the left hand rule is
      how electrical current through a conducter moving through a magnetic
      field can create mechanical energy. It is like the difference
      between an electrical generater and an electrical motor. The former
      makes electric current from mechanical motions, in this case the
      movement of the oceans, the latter takes electrical current and makes
      movement in the upper winds.

      There is a way of really proving the electrical motive--QBO is
      generated from top down! If indeed, the QBO winds were REALLY
      connected thermodynamically to, say, Rossby waves, then the movement
      would be from below first. But the wind direction change comes from
      the top down!

      SOx emissions from volcanoes impact the phase change temperatures of
      cirrus clouds, and hence radiative balances of that which Gaia
      modulates from insulations of hydrate fields in the biosphere
      feedbacks. So these movements ultimately have a biological context,
      along with a electro-magnetic.

      Hurricanes and QBO. A hurricane is also electrically assymetric.
      What I mean by that is that the equator side of a cyclone contains
      warmer waters which will tend to rise faster and hence, even as they
      induct AGAINST cirrus enhancement, do not do so with strong winds.
      OTOH, colder SSTs to the temperate zone side of cyclones will cause
      winds drawn to the surface low of a cyclone to be right turned and
      move along the surface, as they are cold and their density relatively
      high, in such a manner to cause a strong induction sustaining
      cirrus. So in a sense a cyclone has the best of both worlds, cirrus
      and electrical field speaking, in that convection from warm waters
      causes good cirrus conditions to the equator side of a cyclone and
      east to west winds, strongly on the surface, cause good electrical
      induction, despite colder surface winds, for good cirrus caused
      warming. But because a cyclone is assymmetrical electronically in
      this manner, the direction of the QBO dampens (or not) the electrical
      energies high above a cyclone and impacts on its cirrus enhancing
      abilities. Hence, the QBO is a factor in cyclonic forecasts, such
      as Dr. Gray recognizes. This year, that factor is enhanced.
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