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Re: Hurricane 2001

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  • Pawnfart
    Further, CO2 forms carbonic acid in the rain, and higher concentrations results in a greater electrical interaction between ocean and land. Not a single word
    Message 1 of 702 , Apr 10 9:58 AM
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      Further, CO2 forms carbonic acid in the rain, and
      higher concentrations results in a greater electrical
      interaction between ocean and land. Not a single word in his
      crappy forecast examines the character of recent storms,
      he just comments on the frequency and intensity of
      the hurricanes over the past 6 years.<br><br>Not a
      word about Mt. Pinatubo. Why? Why not discuss how
      recent storms have stalled and flooded? Because he is
      not looking at biology, he is looking only at
      experiance and correlative relationships, not casual,
      biological relationships. Turns out sulfur reduces the phase
      change temperature of methane hydrates. Sulfur also
      changes the electrical dynamic of rain. A simple
      comparision of what happened to a landfalling Bret and Andrew
      is all that is needed to show this. Any forecast
      without consideration of sulfer and volcanic erruptions
      is fundimentally flawed. <br><br>Of course, the
      forecast misses completely river activity, dams, deltas
      subsisting, strip mining, deforestation. Like the dams in the
      northwest. Clue--that is why (one thing he does list) they
      haven't been landfalling further north like they did 50
      years ago. <br><br>All of the factors that change
      sedimentation rates matter and should make his forecast. Also,
      with respect to Africa, if the conditions are dry
      enough, ironically, detritus makes in to the ocean by
      blowing in the wind from the Sahara! <br><br>He goes on:
      <br><br><br>"Gobally, total tropical cyclone activity has shown a
      downward trend since 1995. See our 21 November 2000
      verification on this Web site for more discussion. "<br><br>It
      has gone down in the Pacific because of the dams.
      40,000 in China alone over the last 30 years, including
      [see <a href=http://www.ssiatty.com/climate/3gorge.html target=new>http://www.ssiatty.com/climate/3gorge.html</a> ]the
      900 foot Three Gorge Dam. Also, conditions are
      getting so warm in some oceans that methane hydrates are
      not taking a role--iris essentially. But the dams in
      China are huge factor to the Pacific. When we were
      doing dams and reveling and canals and delta lakes with
      U.S. rivers, we had a Dust Bowl and some seasons there
      were NO hurricanes whatsoever in the basins of theses
      munipulated rivers.<br><br>"We also anticipate the El Ni�o
      characteristics during 2001 will be more typical of the El Ni�o
      events of the 1950s and 1960s (i.e., 1951-53-57-63-65)
      wherein equatorial Pacific SST warming trends begin along
      the coast of Peru and spread westward with time to
      the Dateline (as originally discussed by Rasmussen
      and Carpenter 1982). "<br><br>He compares ENSO now to
      that of the past. Mistake. I think by the fall it will
      be so small that it will only aid in hurricane
      formation, as it will represent an area not large enough for
      an iris effect.
    • b1blancer_29501
      On Feb 28th, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field swung to a strong south-pointing orientation. That, coupled with an elevated solar wind speed and density,
      Message 702 of 702 , Mar 1, 2002
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        On Feb 28th, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field
        swung to a strong south-pointing orientation. That,
        coupled with an elevated solar wind speed and density,
        triggered a G-1 class geomagnetic storm. The result was
        some high latitude aurora. See this link for a
        photgraph of aurora observed over Quebec :
        <a href=http://www.spaceweather.com/aurora/images/01mar02/Moussette2.jpg target=new>http://www.spaceweather.com/aurora/images/01mar02/Moussette2.jpg</a> . As of right now, there are 3 sunspot regions,
        namely 9839, 9842, and 9845, that appear to be capable
        of producing M-class flares. Regions 9839 and 9842
        are close to rotating out of view over the western
        limb of the solar disk. Sunspot region 9845, however,
        is close to the sun's central meridian. A rather
        large coronal hole is also approaching the sun's
        central meridian, and coming into an Earth-pointing
        position. High speed colar wind gusts are likely around the
        first of next week.<br><br>The current solar and
        geomagnetic conditions are :<br><br>NOAA sunspot number :
        153<br>SFI : 188<br>A index : 10<br>K index : 1<br><br>Solar
        wind speed : 372.3 km/sec<br>Solar wind density : 4.4
        protons/cc<br>Solar wind pressure : 1.1 nPa<br><br>IMF : 8.4
        nT<br>IMF Orientation : 0.7 nT North<br><br>Conditions for
        the last 24 hours : <br>Solar activity was low. The
        geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Stratwarm Alert
        exists Friday.<br><br>Forecast for the next 24 hours
        :<br>Solar activity will be low to moderate. The geomagnetic
        field will be quiet to unsettled.<br><br>Solar Activity
        Forecast :<br>Solar activity is expected to be low to
        moderate for the next three days. Region 9845 is a
        possible source for isolated M-class
        flares.<br><br>Geomagnetic activity forecast :<br>Geomagnetic field activity
        is expected to be mainly quiet to unsettled, until
        the onset of high speed stream effects from a
        recurrent coronal hole begin to develop by day three of the
        forecast period. Isolated active conditions are
        anticipated thereafter.<br><br>Recent significant solar flare
        activity :<br>None
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