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Solar Activity Report for 4/22/02

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  • b1blancer_29501
    ** S-2 Solar Radiation Storm In Progress ** ** Aurora Watch In Effect ** A solar radiation is still in progress as a result of yesterday s massive X1.5 flare.
    Message 1 of 1 , Apr 22 9:05 PM
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      ** S-2 Solar Radiation Storm In Progress **
      ** Aurora Watch In Effect **

      A solar radiation is still in progress as a result of yesterday's
      massive X1.5 flare. The flare shot off a CME. It was not squarely
      Earth-directed, but there does appear to be at least a partial halo
      component to it, which indicates that we should at least receive a
      glancing blow from it. See this link for a short movie of the CME.
      The thousands of sparkles seen in the movie are caused by protons from
      the flare striking the CCD imager of the SOHO coronagraph.
      http://science.nasa.gov/spaceweather/images2002/21apr02/cme_c3_big.gif
      . The CME should arrive either late tonight or tomorrow. Skywatchers
      should keep an eye out for aurora, especially around local midnight.
      Sunspot region 9906, the cause of all the recent action, has rotated
      out of view over the western limb of the solar disk. Sunspot region
      9912 has the potential of generating an M-class flare.

      The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :

      NOAA sunspot number : 155
      SFI : 170
      A index : 13
      K index : 1

      Solar wind speed : 432.9 km/sec
      Solar wind density : 3.6 protons/cc
      Solar wind pressure : n/a

      IMF : 7.1 nT
      IMF Orientation : 3.2 nT South

      Conditions for the last 24 hours :
      Space weather for the past 24 hours has been strong. Solar radiation
      storms reaching the S3 level occurred.

      Forecast for the next 24 hours :
      Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be moderate.
      Geomagnetic storms reaching the G1 level are expected. Solar radiation
      storms reaching the S2 level are expected. Radio blackouts reaching
      the R1 level are expected.

      Solar activity forecast :
      Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. There's a
      chance for an isolated M-class flare from Region 9912.

      Geomagnetic activity forecast :
      Geomagnetic field activity is expected to increase to active to minor
      storm levels on 23 April in response to yesterday's X1/partial-halo
      CME event. Unsettled to active conditions are expected on 24 April as
      the disturbance winds down. Unsettled conditions are expected on the
      final day. The greater than 100 MeV proton event is expected to end
      early on 23 April. The greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to
      end on 24
      April.

      Recent significant solar flare activity :
      21-Apr-2002 0151Z X1.5
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