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Solar Ac tivity for 4/18/02

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  • b1blancer_29501
    ** Aurora Watch In Effect ** After the geomagnetic storm conditions briefly subsided last evening, a G-3 class geomagnetic storm raged overnight last night. A
    Message 1 of 1 , Apr 18, 2002
      ** Aurora Watch In Effect **

      After the geomagnetic storm conditions briefly subsided last evening,
      a G-3 class geomagnetic storm raged overnight last night. A G-3
      geomagnetic storm is in the "Strong" category. The geomagnetic storm
      conditions persisted for nearly 24 hours before finally dropping below
      storm level today. It is quite possible that we could do this again
      tomorrow or Saturday, as a full-halo CME from yesterday's M2.6 flare
      is on the way. Exactly how strong the coming storm will be remains to
      be seen, but there's at least a change of severe geomagnetic storm
      conditions.

      The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :

      NOAA sunspot number : 160
      SFI : 188
      A index : 45
      K index : 3

      Solar wind speed : 442.1 km/sec
      Solar wind density : 6.2 protons/cc
      Solar wind pressure : 1.7 nPa

      IMF : 10.7 nT
      IMF Orientation : 2.7 nT North

      Conditions for the last 24 hours :
      Space weather for the past 24 hours has been strong. Geomagnetic
      storms reaching the G3 level occurred.

      Forecast for the next 24 hours :
      Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be minor.
      Geomagnetic storms reaching the G1 level are expected. Solar radiation
      storms reaching the S1 level are expected. Radio blackouts reaching
      the R1 level are expected.

      Solar activity forecast :
      Solar activity is expected to be moderate. M-class activity is
      expected in Region 9906. A major flare in this region remains a
      possibility.

      Geomagnetic activity forecast :
      The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels
      through the end of 18 April UTC. Another CME is expected to impact the
      Earth early on 19 April UTC from an LDE/CME that occurred on 17 April.
      Minor to major storm conditions are possible for the 24-48 hours
      following this CME's arrival. Geomagnetic activity is expected to
      decline to unsettled to active levels by the end of the 3-day forecast
      period. Another greater than 10 MeV proton event is possible if Region
      9906 generates a major flare.

      Recent significant solar flare activity :
      17-Apr-2002 0824Z M2.6
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