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Re: Hurricane 2001

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  • Pawnfart
    Seems like the power to talk is in the hands of narrow minded thinkers who model the world in terms of chaos, probability and uncertainty. And with these
    Message 1 of 702 , Apr 10 9:58 AM
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      Seems like the power to talk is in the hands of
      narrow minded thinkers who model the world in terms of
      chaos, probability and uncertainty. And with these
      models, greed can rule because there is alway a doubt
      that the poison in the water is somehow harmless. Here
      is an example of someone claiming the science is
      set, perhaps the most famous climate forecaster in the
      world, who made news programs across the country:
      <br><br><a href=http://typhoon.atmos.colostate.edu/forecasts/2001/april2001/ target=new>http://typhoon.atmos.colostate.edu/forecasts/2001/april2001/</a><br><br>This link is to Dr. William Gray's updated hurricane
      forecast. His update now approaches mine, but his language
      is still the same tired chaos theory. Funny, his
      adjustment comes shortly after I put mine out. His only
      major forecast adjustment is due to, surprise, West
      Africa.<br><br>"However, it is notable that these [rainfall in two areas
      in West Africa] have not worked as well during the
      active hurricane seasons of the last few years
      (1995-2000) as it had in earlier decades and we judge them to
      be of little influence in dictating how the coming
      hurricane season will evolve." <br><br>"Have not worked as
      well" ROFLMAO. This is the leading hurricane expert!
      WHAT hasn't worked out such that you upwardly adjust
      your forecast 10%!?!?!? Okay. So you didn't get the
      fact that they built dams on the rivers in West Africa
      and this changed the sed and flow rates and the
      ditritis in the North Atlantic, giving methanogens a
      different habitat. You are forgiven for that. But it gets
      better:<br><br>"Part of this statistical model underprediction problem
      is likely due to an apparent weakening of the strong
      West African rainfall - hurricane relationship which
      is an important component of our statistical
      forecast scheme. For this reason, we have recently
      expanded our studies to analog years with pre-season
      climate conditions similar to 2001. "<br><br>Meaning he
      is going to SST anomalies. This will have a more
      direct relationship to methanogen activity, so this is a
      good move. "It appears that the training data sets for
      our statistical schemes, developed from 1950-1997 do
      not fully capture conditions associated with the
      unusually enhanced hurricane activity of the last six
      years."<br><br>Meaning we have no idea whatsoever is going on and we
      ourselves our doubting our experiance. Chaos thinkers have
      lots of trouble with this kind of problem. The word
      'uncertainty' usually pops up.<br><br>"There has been some
      speculation put forth in the media regarding the recent large
      upswing in Atlantic hurricane activity (since 1995) as
      being in some way related to increased human-induced
      greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide (CO2). Such an
      interpretation of the recent sharp upward Atlantic hurricane
      activity is not plausible. "<br><br>This is where it gets
      great. So here is this famous hurricane expert, stumped
      by his own data, now having the ability to conclude
      that it is not related to CO2 emissions. Allow me to
      explain the mechanism. CO2 is used by methanogens to
      breath. The metabolize it in absence of ditritus,
      essentially using the energy from H2 bonds to make methane
      and water. So, a higher concentration of CO2 in the
      oceans is going to improve the existance of these
      microbes, all other things remaining the same.
    • b1blancer_29501
      On Feb 28th, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field swung to a strong south-pointing orientation. That, coupled with an elevated solar wind speed and density,
      Message 702 of 702 , Mar 1, 2002
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        On Feb 28th, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field
        swung to a strong south-pointing orientation. That,
        coupled with an elevated solar wind speed and density,
        triggered a G-1 class geomagnetic storm. The result was
        some high latitude aurora. See this link for a
        photgraph of aurora observed over Quebec :
        <a href=http://www.spaceweather.com/aurora/images/01mar02/Moussette2.jpg target=new>http://www.spaceweather.com/aurora/images/01mar02/Moussette2.jpg</a> . As of right now, there are 3 sunspot regions,
        namely 9839, 9842, and 9845, that appear to be capable
        of producing M-class flares. Regions 9839 and 9842
        are close to rotating out of view over the western
        limb of the solar disk. Sunspot region 9845, however,
        is close to the sun's central meridian. A rather
        large coronal hole is also approaching the sun's
        central meridian, and coming into an Earth-pointing
        position. High speed colar wind gusts are likely around the
        first of next week.<br><br>The current solar and
        geomagnetic conditions are :<br><br>NOAA sunspot number :
        153<br>SFI : 188<br>A index : 10<br>K index : 1<br><br>Solar
        wind speed : 372.3 km/sec<br>Solar wind density : 4.4
        protons/cc<br>Solar wind pressure : 1.1 nPa<br><br>IMF : 8.4
        nT<br>IMF Orientation : 0.7 nT North<br><br>Conditions for
        the last 24 hours : <br>Solar activity was low. The
        geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Stratwarm Alert
        exists Friday.<br><br>Forecast for the next 24 hours
        :<br>Solar activity will be low to moderate. The geomagnetic
        field will be quiet to unsettled.<br><br>Solar Activity
        Forecast :<br>Solar activity is expected to be low to
        moderate for the next three days. Region 9845 is a
        possible source for isolated M-class
        flares.<br><br>Geomagnetic activity forecast :<br>Geomagnetic field activity
        is expected to be mainly quiet to unsettled, until
        the onset of high speed stream effects from a
        recurrent coronal hole begin to develop by day three of the
        forecast period. Isolated active conditions are
        anticipated thereafter.<br><br>Recent significant solar flare
        activity :<br>None
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