Solar Activity Report for 4/18/02
- ** G-1 Geomagnetic Storm In Progress **
** Aurora Watch In Effect **
The CME from flare of 4/15 arrived this morning, triggering a G-2
geomagnetic storm and an S-1 solar radiation storm. The impact
happened at about 7am EDT. People in the Pacific time zone who
happened to be out at that time of the morning were treated to an
aurora display that was spotted as far south as Washington State.
While geomagnetic activity has subsided since then, more aurora are a
possibility in the higher latitudes, especially if the Interplanetary
Magnetic Field (IMF) stays in a south-pointing orientation like it is
right now. And guess what? There's more on the way. A nice M2.6 flare
was generated today as sunspot region 9906 continued its active ways.
It hurled a somewhat lopsided full-halo CME our way, and it is
estimated that it will be arriving in our neck of the woods on the
19th or the 20th. It could easily trigger another round of high
The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :
NOAA sunspot number : 137
SFI : 194
A index : 31
K index : 3
Solar wind speed : 514.6 km/sec
Solar wind density : 3.1 protons/cc
Solar wind pressure : 1.3 nPa
IMF : 13.2 nT
IMF Orientation : 12.4 nT South
Conditions for the last 24 hours :
Space weather for the past 24 hours has been moderate. Geomagnetic
storms reaching the G2 level occurred. Solar radiation storms reaching
the S1 level occurred. Radio blackouts reaching the R1 level occurred.
Forecast for the next 24 hours :
Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be minor.
Geomagnetic storms reaching the G1 level are expected. Solar radiation
storms reaching the S1 level are expected. Radio blackouts reaching
the R1 level are expected.
Solar activity forecast :
Solar activity is expected to be moderate. Additional M-class flares,
possibly including a major flare, are expected in Region 9906.
Geomagnetic activity forecast :
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active to minor storm
levels as the current disturbance recovers over the next 24 hours.
Another disturbance at minor to major storm levels is expected to
begin on 19 April in response to the LDE M2/CME which occurred on 17
April. The greater than 10 MeV proton event currently in progress is
expected to end within the next 24 hours.
Recent significant solar flare activity :
17-Apr-2002 0824Z M2.6
16-Apr-2002 1319Z M2.5