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Solar Activity Report for 4/18/02

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  • b1blancer_29501
    ** G-1 Geomagnetic Storm In Progress ** ** Aurora Watch In Effect ** The CME from flare of 4/15 arrived this morning, triggering a G-2 geomagnetic storm and an
    Message 1 of 1 , Apr 17, 2002
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      ** G-1 Geomagnetic Storm In Progress **
      ** Aurora Watch In Effect **

      The CME from flare of 4/15 arrived this morning, triggering a G-2
      geomagnetic storm and an S-1 solar radiation storm. The impact
      happened at about 7am EDT. People in the Pacific time zone who
      happened to be out at that time of the morning were treated to an
      aurora display that was spotted as far south as Washington State.
      While geomagnetic activity has subsided since then, more aurora are a
      possibility in the higher latitudes, especially if the Interplanetary
      Magnetic Field (IMF) stays in a south-pointing orientation like it is
      right now. And guess what? There's more on the way. A nice M2.6 flare
      was generated today as sunspot region 9906 continued its active ways.
      It hurled a somewhat lopsided full-halo CME our way, and it is
      estimated that it will be arriving in our neck of the woods on the
      19th or the 20th. It could easily trigger another round of high
      geomagnetic activity.

      The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :

      NOAA sunspot number : 137
      SFI : 194
      A index : 31
      K index : 3

      Solar wind speed : 514.6 km/sec
      Solar wind density : 3.1 protons/cc
      Solar wind pressure : 1.3 nPa

      IMF : 13.2 nT
      IMF Orientation : 12.4 nT South

      Conditions for the last 24 hours :
      Space weather for the past 24 hours has been moderate. Geomagnetic
      storms reaching the G2 level occurred. Solar radiation storms reaching
      the S1 level occurred. Radio blackouts reaching the R1 level occurred.

      Forecast for the next 24 hours :
      Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be minor.
      Geomagnetic storms reaching the G1 level are expected. Solar radiation
      storms reaching the S1 level are expected. Radio blackouts reaching
      the R1 level are expected.

      Solar activity forecast :
      Solar activity is expected to be moderate. Additional M-class flares,
      possibly including a major flare, are expected in Region 9906.

      Geomagnetic activity forecast :
      The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active to minor storm
      levels as the current disturbance recovers over the next 24 hours.
      Another disturbance at minor to major storm levels is expected to
      begin on 19 April in response to the LDE M2/CME which occurred on 17
      April. The greater than 10 MeV proton event currently in progress is
      expected to end within the next 24 hours.

      Recent significant solar flare activity :
      17-Apr-2002 0824Z M2.6
      16-Apr-2002 1319Z M2.5
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