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Solar Activity Report for 4/16/02

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  • b1blancer_29501
    ** Aurora Watch In Effect ** Things could get interesting over the next couple of days with the arrival of the full-halo CME I mentioned yesterday. Skywatchers
    Message 1 of 1 , Apr 16, 2002
      ** Aurora Watch In Effect **

      Things could get interesting over the next couple of days with the
      arrival of the full-halo CME I mentioned yesterday. Skywatchers in the
      middle and upper latitudes should keep an eye out for aurora Wednesday
      and Thursday nights. In fact, the solar wind density is elevated,
      which could indicate the first signs of the CME arrival. On the other
      hand, it could also be as a result of the M2 that occurred today.
      Sunspot region 9906 has been quite active already, and has the
      potential for producing a major flare.

      The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :

      NOAA sunspot number : 172
      SFI : 196
      A index : 7
      K index : 2

      Solar wind speed : 327.9 km/sec
      Solar wind density : 7.0 protons/cc
      Solar wind pressure : 1.0 nPa

      IMF : 7.2 nT
      IMF Orientation : 1.2 nT South

      Conditions for the last 24 hours :
      Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor. Radio blackouts
      reaching the R1 level occurred.

      Forecast for the next 24 hours :
      Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be minor. Radio
      blackouts reaching the R1 level are expected.

      Solar activity forecast :
      Solar activity is expected to be predominantly low to moderate,
      although Region 9893 and 9897 (S02W17) both possess the potential to
      produce an isolated major flare.

      Geomagnetic activity forecast :
      Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled
      levels with isolated active periods possible on days one and two of
      the forecast period. Day three should return to predominantly quiet
      conditions. The greater than 2 Mev electron flux should be slightly
      enhanced through the first day of the period.

      Recent significant solar flare activity :
      16-Apr-2002 1319Z M2.5
      15-Apr-2002 2324Z M1.2
      15-Apr-2002 0355Z M1.2
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