Solar Activity Report for 4/16/02
- ** Aurora Watch In Effect **
Things could get interesting over the next couple of days with the
arrival of the full-halo CME I mentioned yesterday. Skywatchers in the
middle and upper latitudes should keep an eye out for aurora Wednesday
and Thursday nights. In fact, the solar wind density is elevated,
which could indicate the first signs of the CME arrival. On the other
hand, it could also be as a result of the M2 that occurred today.
Sunspot region 9906 has been quite active already, and has the
potential for producing a major flare.
The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :
NOAA sunspot number : 172
SFI : 196
A index : 7
K index : 2
Solar wind speed : 327.9 km/sec
Solar wind density : 7.0 protons/cc
Solar wind pressure : 1.0 nPa
IMF : 7.2 nT
IMF Orientation : 1.2 nT South
Conditions for the last 24 hours :
Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor. Radio blackouts
reaching the R1 level occurred.
Forecast for the next 24 hours :
Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be minor. Radio
blackouts reaching the R1 level are expected.
Solar activity forecast :
Solar activity is expected to be predominantly low to moderate,
although Region 9893 and 9897 (S02W17) both possess the potential to
produce an isolated major flare.
Geomagnetic activity forecast :
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled
levels with isolated active periods possible on days one and two of
the forecast period. Day three should return to predominantly quiet
conditions. The greater than 2 Mev electron flux should be slightly
enhanced through the first day of the period.
Recent significant solar flare activity :
16-Apr-2002 1319Z M2.5
15-Apr-2002 2324Z M1.2
15-Apr-2002 0355Z M1.2