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Re: Hurricane 2001

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  • Pawnfart
    And as it turned out, overall, despite the slow start, it was above average with 14 named storms. My forecast was more accurate, because I predicted
    Message 1 of 702 , Mar 27, 2001
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      And as it turned out, overall, despite the slow start, it was above <br>average with
      14 named storms. My forecast was more accurate, because I <br>predicted where the danger
      for landfall was and the character of the <br>storms as well as the character of the
      distribution of the storms over <br>the season. Dams matter to climate, and the discussion must
      have driven <br>Jeff Norman crazy, crazy enough to boot me from his right wing bb. See
      <br>my TT predictions from last year (one
      example):<br><br><br><a href=http://www.cfis.org/ubb/Forum2/HTML/000154.html target=new>http://www.cfis.org/ubb/Forum2/HTML/000154.html</a><br><br>"So what is going on? Here is my thinking. July is winter in the Southern <br>Hemisphere.
      But as we move into August, it becomes spring for them. <br>Specifically, in South America
      some of the spring melts in the mountains <br>start, and the flows from the Amazon and
      Orinico, for instance, go much <br>more strongly. Sedimentation rates and dilution rises. The
      biological <br>material is there for making methane. This causes ocean conditions NOT
      <br>favorable for upwelling, and the oceans in the Gulf basin start having <br>surface temperatures
      that are unseasonably warm. Hurricane or tropical <br>activity follows."<br><br>"What is
      interesting about some of the trends in hurricanes is that there <br>are fewer that seem to land
      fall further north, like NYC, for instance. <br>The seasons over the past two years have
      been late, with Mitch, and what <br>I really consider a very late tropical storm in the
      flooding in <br>Venezuala. This year bodes the same. Why this isn't out in the press is
      <br>beyond me, but then I am way out ahead of everyone, it seems."<br><br>Now, I don't have a lot
      of time to get into it, so I will delve into it <br>tomorrow, but I do want to talk about
      the El Nino predicted by Dr. Gray.<br><br>Start with this link, which is really cool,
      right at hurricane season <br>during the 500 year El
      Nino:<br><br><a href=http://psbsgi1.nesdis.noaa.gov:8080/PSB/EPS/SST/climo_archive/data/anomnig target=new>http://psbsgi1.nesdis.noaa.gov:8080/PSB/EPS/SST/climo_archive/data/anomnig</a><br>ht.9.16.1997.gif<br><br>Now, my thinking on El Nino and hurricane season is less about "shearing" <br>winds, which
      really, if you think about it, doesn't make sense <br>scientifically and makes more sense as a
      metaphor. Anyway, the idea of <br>iris makes some sense, with my electrical aspect of convection
      <br>modification. That is, normally, just south of central American and just <br>about South America
      there is a body of water that is warm in the fall and <br>early winter that may be a good
      source of convection to fuel tropical <br>storms. But in an El Nino year that whole region
      gets on fire and so you <br>have a different cloud wieghted SST that results in upper air
      iris <br>cooling to include a region of where hurricanes may form at that time of <br>year.
      So I agree that all bets are off if we have an El Nino, but I <br>don't necessarily agree
      with an El Nino. Here is the SST we have now and <br>the one at this time before the 500
      year El
      Nino:<br><br><a href=http://psbsgi1.nesdis.noaa.gov:8080/PSB/EPS/SST/climo_archive/data/anomnig target=new>http://psbsgi1.nesdis.noaa.gov:8080/PSB/EPS/SST/climo_archive/data/anomnig</a><br>ht.3.25.1997.gif<br><a href=http://psbsgi1.nesdis.noaa.gov:8080/PSB/EPS/SST/data/anomnight.3.27.2001.g target=new>http://psbsgi1.nesdis.noaa.gov:8080/PSB/EPS/SST/data/anomnight.3.27.2001.g</a><br>if<br><br>Last year we had state sized ice bergs and that changed the sinking and <br>the upwelling
      and this year compared to 1997 we have a lot more sea ice <br>in the Southern oceans . . .
      more tomorrow.
    • b1blancer_29501
      On Feb 28th, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field swung to a strong south-pointing orientation. That, coupled with an elevated solar wind speed and density,
      Message 702 of 702 , Mar 1, 2002
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        On Feb 28th, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field
        swung to a strong south-pointing orientation. That,
        coupled with an elevated solar wind speed and density,
        triggered a G-1 class geomagnetic storm. The result was
        some high latitude aurora. See this link for a
        photgraph of aurora observed over Quebec :
        <a href=http://www.spaceweather.com/aurora/images/01mar02/Moussette2.jpg target=new>http://www.spaceweather.com/aurora/images/01mar02/Moussette2.jpg</a> . As of right now, there are 3 sunspot regions,
        namely 9839, 9842, and 9845, that appear to be capable
        of producing M-class flares. Regions 9839 and 9842
        are close to rotating out of view over the western
        limb of the solar disk. Sunspot region 9845, however,
        is close to the sun's central meridian. A rather
        large coronal hole is also approaching the sun's
        central meridian, and coming into an Earth-pointing
        position. High speed colar wind gusts are likely around the
        first of next week.<br><br>The current solar and
        geomagnetic conditions are :<br><br>NOAA sunspot number :
        153<br>SFI : 188<br>A index : 10<br>K index : 1<br><br>Solar
        wind speed : 372.3 km/sec<br>Solar wind density : 4.4
        protons/cc<br>Solar wind pressure : 1.1 nPa<br><br>IMF : 8.4
        nT<br>IMF Orientation : 0.7 nT North<br><br>Conditions for
        the last 24 hours : <br>Solar activity was low. The
        geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Stratwarm Alert
        exists Friday.<br><br>Forecast for the next 24 hours
        :<br>Solar activity will be low to moderate. The geomagnetic
        field will be quiet to unsettled.<br><br>Solar Activity
        Forecast :<br>Solar activity is expected to be low to
        moderate for the next three days. Region 9845 is a
        possible source for isolated M-class
        flares.<br><br>Geomagnetic activity forecast :<br>Geomagnetic field activity
        is expected to be mainly quiet to unsettled, until
        the onset of high speed stream effects from a
        recurrent coronal hole begin to develop by day three of the
        forecast period. Isolated active conditions are
        anticipated thereafter.<br><br>Recent significant solar flare
        activity :<br>None
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