Solar Activity Report for 4/4/02
- The high speed solar wind stream that has persisted for the last week
is dying out, but not before creating some beautiful aurora.
Impressive aurora display were photographed in Canada and Alaska.
There was a very powerful M6-class flare today. Ironically, it did not
come from one of the large sunspot regions now visible. Rather, it
came from just over the southeastern limb of the solar disk. It
appears to have come from what was designated as suspot region 9866 on
its last trip around. The fact that this sunspot region has held
together for a full rotation of the sun is unusual. It was responsible
for kicking off some very strong flares during its last appearance.
How this pass will play out remains to be seen, but if today's flare
is any indication it could be interesting.
The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :
NOAA sunspot number : 176
SFI : 216
A index : 6
K index : 1
Solar wind speed : 414.7 km/sec
Solar wind density : 1.5 protons/cc
Solar wind pressure : 0.4 nPa
IMF : 4.7 nT
IMF Orientation : 1.7 nT South
Conditions for the last 24 hours :
Space weather for the past 24 hours has been moderate. Radio blackouts
reaching the R2 level occurred.
Forecast for the next 24 hours :
Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be minor. Radio
blackouts reaching the R1 level are expected.
Solar activity forecast :
Solar activity is expected to be predominantly low to moderate for the
next three days. A chance for isolated major flare activity exists, in
particular with the return of old Region 9866.
Geomagnetic activity forecast :
The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominantly quiet to
unsettled. A chance for some isolated active periods exists for days
two and three of the forecast period, due to the possibility of some
flanking shock passage effects from the CME events observed earlier
today. Greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to persist at
moderate to high levels for the next two to three days.
Recent significant solar flare activity :
04-Apr-2002 1532Z M6.1