Loading ...
Sorry, an error occurred while loading the content.

Solar Activity Report for 4/2/02

Expand Messages
  • b1blancer_29501
    ** Aurora Watch In Effect ** The Earth remains inside a persistent high speed solar wind stream this evening, and skywatchers in the higher latitudes should
    Message 1 of 1 , Apr 2 9:03 PM
    • 0 Attachment
      ** Aurora Watch In Effect **

      The Earth remains inside a persistent high speed solar wind stream
      this evening, and skywatchers in the higher latitudes should keep an
      eye out for aurora around local midnight. I apparently spoke too soon
      in saying that no geomagnetic activity had been caused by the fast
      moving solar wind blast. See this link for a picture of aurora taken
      in Alaska on the night of 3/31 :
      http://www.spaceweather.com/images2002/31mar02/hoffmeyer.jpg . The
      magnetic field of sunspot region 9885 has decayed a bit in the last 24
      hours, but it is still a definite threat for at least M-class flares.
      Sunspot region 9887 has grown in size, and also has flare-producing
      potential. The sunspot number has climbed dramatically in the last few
      days, and now stands at in the mid 200's for the first time in a good
      while.

      The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :

      NOAA sunspot number : 262
      SFI : 206
      A index : 12
      K index : 3

      Solar wind speed : 615.4 km/sec
      Solar wind density : 1.2 protons/cc
      Solar wind pressure : 1.1 nPa

      IMF : 4.7 nPa
      IMF Orientation : 2.7 nT South

      Conditions for the last 24 hours :
      No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.

      Forecast for the next 24 hours :
      Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be minor. Radio
      blackouts reaching the R1 level are expected.

      Solar activity forecast :
      Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 9887 appears
      to be a likely source for continued C-class and potential M-class
      flare activity. Region 9885 (N13W14) also retains sufficient size and
      complexity for potentially significant flare activity.

      Geomagnetic activity forecast :
      The geomagnetic field is expected to be mainly quiet to unsettled for
      the next three days. Isolated active periods are possible in local
      nighttime sectors during the next 12-24 hours as high speed stream
      effects continue to wane. A chance for moderate to high flux levels of
      greater than 2 MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit exists for the
      next three days.

      Recent significant solar flare activiry :
      None
    Your message has been successfully submitted and would be delivered to recipients shortly.