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Time already for some John Daly ENSO call bashing.

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  • pawnfart
    Daly called for El Nino and has been critical for those making these predictions to not go all out with it at Queensland DNR because the winds were so strong
    Message 1 of 1 , Apr 2, 2002
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      Daly called for El Nino and has been critical for those making these
      predictions to not go all out with it at Queensland DNR because the
      winds were so strong El Nino -- it's all there at his web page.
      What's not all there, however, is the latest winds--which went back
      to La Nina on March 31!!!! Already! ROFLMAO!!!!!

      http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/SeasonalClimateOutlook/SouthernOscil
      lationIndex/30DaySOIValues/

      "Tahiti = Barometric pressure (daily reading)

      Darwin = Barometric pressure (daily reading) 30 day Av.SOI = Average
      daily SOI value for the previous 30 days.

      90 day Av.SOI = Average daily SOI value for the previous 90 days.

      Note: Calculated using the 1887-1989 base period. This information is
      usually updated every weekday at 2:00pm (AEST), public holidays
      excluded. **Daily values are not the SOI but contribute to the
      calculation of the monthly SOI. Daily values are presented for
      research purposes only. 30 day (or larger) average SOI values are the
      key indices for forecast purposes.

      Date Tahiti Darwin Daily** 30 day 90 day Av.SOI Av.SOI

      ---------------------------------------------------------

      . . .

      26-Mar-2002 1011.26 1008.80 -7.80 -6.74 0.65

      27-Mar-2002 1012.19 1008.65 -2.70 -6.34 0.71

      28-Mar-2002 1012.51 1008.40 0.00 -5.90 0.89

      29-Mar-2002 1012.24 1008.85 -3.40 -5.78 1.10

      30-Mar-2002 1012.71 1009.55 -4.50 -5.87 1.17

      31-Mar-2002 1013.78 1009.30 1.70 -5.87 1.12

      1-Apr-2002 1013.24 1011.20 -2.50 -6.17 0.96

      2-Apr-2002 1011.33 1011.15 -15.90 -7.09 0.64 "

      There is more stuff on this data here:

      http://www.nt.gov.au/dbird/dpif/pubcat/newsletters/krr/Krrapr01_files/
      OscillationIndex.shtml

      Now, let me explain what these winds mean. If the winds are moving
      WESTWARD along the tropical waters long enough, you get El Nino
      conditions. It is warmer simply because the warmest waters are
      getting electrical induction relative to the earth's magnetic field
      that enhances cirrus clouds. Going the other way, you get reduction
      of cirrus with your warmest waters.

      Anyway, what you should know is that there was a substantial flaring
      event that B-1 has recorded over the past few days that is pushing
      back El Nino winds. This flaring has become less occurring in the
      down turn of the flaring cycle, as B-1 so well noted a few posts ago,
      and soon the elliptical orbit of the earth will make flaring even
      less important relative to prevailing ocean currents. In short, with
      those glaciers melting in the Southern Oceans--no El Nino and it's
      going to be clear very soon how wrong Daly was and, really, how his
      statistician actually helps prove the melting glacial ice of
      Antarctica in relative terms.
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