Time already for some John Daly ENSO call bashing.
- Daly called for El Nino and has been critical for those making these
predictions to not go all out with it at Queensland DNR because the
winds were so strong El Nino -- it's all there at his web page.
What's not all there, however, is the latest winds--which went back
to La Nina on March 31!!!! Already! ROFLMAO!!!!!
"Tahiti = Barometric pressure (daily reading)
Darwin = Barometric pressure (daily reading) 30 day Av.SOI = Average
daily SOI value for the previous 30 days.
90 day Av.SOI = Average daily SOI value for the previous 90 days.
Note: Calculated using the 1887-1989 base period. This information is
usually updated every weekday at 2:00pm (AEST), public holidays
excluded. **Daily values are not the SOI but contribute to the
calculation of the monthly SOI. Daily values are presented for
research purposes only. 30 day (or larger) average SOI values are the
key indices for forecast purposes.
Date Tahiti Darwin Daily** 30 day 90 day Av.SOI Av.SOI
. . .
26-Mar-2002 1011.26 1008.80 -7.80 -6.74 0.65
27-Mar-2002 1012.19 1008.65 -2.70 -6.34 0.71
28-Mar-2002 1012.51 1008.40 0.00 -5.90 0.89
29-Mar-2002 1012.24 1008.85 -3.40 -5.78 1.10
30-Mar-2002 1012.71 1009.55 -4.50 -5.87 1.17
31-Mar-2002 1013.78 1009.30 1.70 -5.87 1.12
1-Apr-2002 1013.24 1011.20 -2.50 -6.17 0.96
2-Apr-2002 1011.33 1011.15 -15.90 -7.09 0.64 "
There is more stuff on this data here:
Now, let me explain what these winds mean. If the winds are moving
WESTWARD along the tropical waters long enough, you get El Nino
conditions. It is warmer simply because the warmest waters are
getting electrical induction relative to the earth's magnetic field
that enhances cirrus clouds. Going the other way, you get reduction
of cirrus with your warmest waters.
Anyway, what you should know is that there was a substantial flaring
event that B-1 has recorded over the past few days that is pushing
back El Nino winds. This flaring has become less occurring in the
down turn of the flaring cycle, as B-1 so well noted a few posts ago,
and soon the elliptical orbit of the earth will make flaring even
less important relative to prevailing ocean currents. In short, with
those glaciers melting in the Southern Oceans--no El Nino and it's
going to be clear very soon how wrong Daly was and, really, how his
statistician actually helps prove the melting glacial ice of
Antarctica in relative terms.