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Re: [Methane Hydrate Club] ***2002 Gaia Cane forecast--PLEASE RESPONDE****

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  • paul hadfield
    pawnfart said: (I would also be concerned about tornadic activity in the alley in early May. Conditions are almost the same as 1999. ) very interesting... i
    Message 1 of 6 , Apr 1 4:57 AM
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      pawnfart said:

      "(I would also be concerned about tornadic activity in
      the alley in early May. Conditions are almost the same
      as 1999. )"

      very interesting... i say that as a local forecaster
      named Joe Bauer of WANDTV Central IL during a severe
      wx special called "Spring Alert" airing last week
      (3/27) said that "this year was to expected to be weak
      in the way of activity." he offered no supporting
      evidence but since 1999 was a big year around here in
      Central IL (as well as in the S) with 34 tornadoes
      reported in this region alone (source:
      http://www.crh.noaa.gov/ilx/torn.htm), who is to say
      that he is right? in contrast to your statement
      regarding similiar conditions and the historical facts
      associated with 1999 also with the fact that 1998 was
      a HUGE year with 52 reported in Central IL, i wonder
      where someone like him gets his info to make such a
      statement about the outcome when in fact we won't know
      till the season is over. granted, 2000 and 2001 were
      fairly quiet however 2001 presented a "late bloomer"
      on October 24th mauling a large area of Monticello IL
      and way past the usual season. i'll be following your
      theory along with our local met's prediction to see
      who is right or at least closest. so far you've been
      dead on and it would be funny if our local guy eats
      his words... just so long as it isn't at the expense
      of life or property... be well!

      (that link contains a host of interesting Central IL
      tornado stats, take note of the pattern-like flow of
      the numbers.)

      =====
      stop by anytime! http://www.pawleewurx.com

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    • fredwx
      Here is a link to a Satellite photo showing the black tide: http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards/Archive/Mar2002/modis_ fl_blk_20020130_lrg.jpg ...
      Message 2 of 6 , Apr 1 7:12 AM
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        Here is a link to a Satellite photo showing the black tide:
        http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards/Archive/Mar2002/modis_
        fl_blk_20020130_lrg.jpg

        --- In methanehydrateclub@y..., pawnfart <no_reply@y...> wrote:
        > It's April and so here goes. Parenthetically, last Friday on NPR's
        > Talk of the Nation/Science Friday they talked about El Nino and the
        > Drought:
        >
        > ++++++++++++++++
        >
        > http://www.npr.org/ramfiles/totn/20020329.totn.01.ram
        >
        > Drought / El Nino
        >
        > Guests:
        >
        > Donald A. Wilhite
        > * Director, National Drought Mitigation Center
        > * International Drought Information Center
        > * Associate Director and Professor, School of Natural Resource
        > Sciences
        > * University of Nebraska
        > * Lincoln, Nebraska
        >
        > Tony Barnston
        > * Head, Forecast Operations
        > * International Research Institute for Climate Prediction
        > * Lamont Dougherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University
        > * Palisades, New York
        >
        > Joseph Atkinson
        > * Professor, Department of Civil, Structural and Environmental
        > Engineering
        > * Director, Great Lakes Program University at Buffalo, State
        > University of New York
        > * Buffalo, New York
        >
        > East coast states from Maine to Georgia and western states from
        > Montana down through Texas are facing drought conditions. Climate
        > forecasters don't see much relief on the way. In this hour, we'll
        > take a look at the causes of the drought, whether or not there's an
        > El Nino connection, and the climate forecasts for the months ahead.
        > Plus, we'll hear how the drought is affecting one part of the
        country
        > -- the Great Lakes.
        >
        > +++++++++++++
        >
        > This is REALLY worth the listen. I bring this up because the
        opinions
        > of these researchers remind me of what perhaps traditionaly
        > forecaster would say about forecasts of El Nino. And I again say
        > chaos then, chaos now leads to a conclusion, wrongheaded, that
        fossil
        > fuel use is okay. It is biological modulation then, modulation
        now,
        > defect in feedback loops that allows me to rationally state that
        > there is a problem--as well as to make some preductions. Well, I
        > correctly disputed the El Nino call last year about this time right
        > here at this club/group and I am going to do it again this year.
        >
        > I will write this so it is unequivical. No El Nino. And it is
        EASY
        > to forecast this with the flaring peak over and the melting glacial
        > ice in the Southern Oceans. (Thanks B-1--you rule). That is
        critical
        > to any hurricane forecast.
        >
        > Now, let me talk about the drought. Particularly on the East Coast
        > and in the SW and Colorado flood plain. Great Lakes remain at
        record
        > lows like last year--haven't seen low levels like this since
        changes
        > to the Mississippi delta swamps in the 60s. This means there is NO
        > WAY there will be a NE coast landfall. It also means it is less
        > likely, but possible, for a NC landfall. The EPAC will continue to
        > see reduced overall activity AFTER the energy from the "El Nino"
        > winds of March dispates perhaps with another early large May storm.
        >
        > The no El Nino is consistant with this headline discussed here this
        > weekend:
        >
        > SCRIPPS SCIENTIST DISCOVERS WARMING TREND IN SOUTHERN OCEAN OVER
        THE
        > LAST 50 YEARS
        >
        > Decline in Antarctic sea ice, carbon dioxide storage, possible
        > implications
        > http://scrippsnews.ucsd.edu/pressreleases/gille_science_warm.html
        >
        >
        > As I have been saying now for some time, warmer Southern Ocean
        means
        > that it conducts a current better. Put another way, the water has a
        > higher specific conductivity. The general direction of current
        > (excepting the eddy by B-22) has inducted a current against cirrus
        > formation (EASTWARD) and that is why warmer ocean mean both melting
        > glaciers AND colder interior. Of course, where the oceans are
        warmer
        > there is a double effect of where the currents move WESTWARD there
        is
        > greater cirrus enhancement and extremes of flooding and so forth.
        > OTOH, where these warm waters melt ice fresh water capping has the
        > effect the other way, which is why I have been pretty confident
        about
        > no El Nino. That was the case from 12,500 to 7,500 years ago BP--no
        > El Nino. No El Nino means heavy hurricane activity per Dr. Gray's
        > stats. I will hook you up with Gray links if you doubt it.
        >
        > Warmer waters also mean melting hydrate ice, which means drought--
        > like the east coast. It also may be a biological loss that leads
        to
        > low hydrate activity. Which I think is the case w/ the N.
        Pacific.
        > Cold anomalies again dominate the north N. Pacific. Is this warmer
        > waters melting hydrates or 30,000 dams built in Asia over the past
        30
        > years culminated by Three Gorge's diversion in November 1997?
        Could
        > it be the ag changes that go with the hydrology changes as it
        relates
        > to the biosphere in the N. Pacific? Changes in moon earth
        > depressurization and tides? My estimate is it is the dams,
        > particularly the relocation of millions of people to the Yangtze
        > combined with warmer ocean temperatures and it has dramatically
        > depleted the hydrate activity in the northern N. Pacific.
        >
        > What does this have to do with hurricanes? Well, it is your Great
        > Lakes problem, drought in the western plains, and Rockies. This
        > impacts secondary hydrology and therefore impacts the biosphere
        where
        > hurricanes take place. Of greatest note is the Great Lake's
        drainage
        > and the NE coast.
        >
        > It is incredible to see this with the SST anomalies along the NE
        > coast:
        >
        > http://psbsgi1.nesdis.noaa.gov:8080/PSB/EPS/SST/climo.html
        >
        > SST anomalies are up for the 29th. Of interest also are the cold
        > anomalies off West Africa. This is as predicted with the new dams
        > built there in the past 5 years--really screwed up Dr. Gray's
        > forecast. Dams there SHIFT what should be spring rains and
        feedbacks
        > that maintain warmth. Cape Verde storms in particular get shut down
        > until much later in the season and then come on much stronger.
        There
        > is the problem of an Alberto, but that is related to the drought.
        > What happens is the cold anomalies off the NE coast cause really
        > strong coriolis driven WESTWARD winds to move to the south of the
        > cold anomalies. This inducts a strong current and causes over time
        a
        > cummulative warm patch where an Alberto like storm can form. With
        > flaring down, look for a long churning mid N. Atlantic storm end of
        > July or August.
        >
        > Flaring yesterday, for instance, was heavy but otherwise flaring
        has
        > started to be quiet. Quiet as a over all long term trend. SSTs and
        > rivers are really going to matter as we move away from the double
        > peak flaring cycle and are on its decelleration.
        >
        > On the 29th SST anomalie here in N. Cal you see slightly cold
        > anomalies compared to S. Cal w/ straight cold anomalies. That is
        > related to their drought there and very poor Gaia conditions.
        Cold
        > anomalies also dominate in the Gulf of California. That's the
        > drought in the Colorado flood plain and Gaia feeding back no cirrus
        > enhancement. I think this makes for continued drought conditions in
        > the monsoonal zone of the SW and also probably decreases the chance
        > for an Allison storm this spring.
        >
        > The drought in New York and the rest of the east coast will
        continue
        > and is continuing by the SST anomalies. Great Lake levels, again,
        are
        > at 30 year lows--just like last year. This will continue given
        > conditions in the N. Pacific. It is going to be very terrible on
        the
        > east coast this summer. Very bad. And forget about a hurricane
        > providing rain relief. Very unlikely.
        >
        > Let me now sum up in a nutshell some of the basics of my forecast.
        >
        > No El Nino. Very heavy. We will see named storms with an M and
        > perhaps an O. Shifted late. This is a key aspect of the dams,
        > particularly West Africa w/ Cape Verde storms and then the dams on
        > the Orinoco and Amazon and other South/Central American rivers.
        Note
        > new dams on Orinoco and Amazon and West Africa already giving cold
        > anomaly readings, especially West Africa. This is occurring right
        > now. By August the trend starts to reverse and by October the dams
        > bring Gaia feedbacks warm oceans just when conditions are most ripe
        > for storms. Very dangerous. It's your Mitch, Caracus, Kevin,
        > Michelle problem and it aint going away. If you get small flaring
        > event timed with this. Well . . . Mitch.
        >
        > Florida had black algae bloom and no flooding so far in
        Mississipi.
        > It's still early on that. We get some rain and flooding on the
        > Mississippi and that could change in the next few weeks, but as of
        > right now, the Mississippi input is the subsistance from years of
        > abuse and the man made lakes starting to show their age and the
        > swamps in the delta eroding away. 25 square miles per years is
        lost
        > to the GOM and that goes straight to the methanogens. Then there
        is
        > the weathering, higher CO2 disucssion we have had here and there
        you
        > go.
        >
        > The Florida bloom is related to the end of the drought and the
        fires
        > and all that bio material flowing to oceans. While the waters are
        > black with algae and fish aren't being caught, it is very strong
        > hydrate conditions that make Florida a target this year. So Florida
        > and Mississippi are somewhat different biologically this year. I am
        > not sure what that means yet for early GOM storm like Allison,
        except
        > that I suspect that we may see one more to the east of the
        > Mississippi. We will have another post flaring event storm that
        > historically has landfell to Texas, but I think we are talking
        about
        > more of a eastward track.
        >
        > (I would also be concerned about tornadic activity in the alley in
        > early May. Conditions are almost the same as 1999. )
        >
        > Anyway, the biggest news will be the drought on the east coast,
        which
        > as far as I can see will last AT LEAST another 3 months. And mean
        NO
        > land falls to the NE, consistant with the decrease of these storms
        > over the past 30 years as oceans have warmed against hydrate
        activity.
        >
        > All storms will continue to be in general stalling/flooding types,
        > with slower surface buzz sawing risks due to the lack of SOx
        > emissions from any volcanic event. Put another way, while I have my
        > eyes on Florida right now, no Andrew is coming to buzz saw things
        on
        > the ground. Storms will be more like Allison--low wind rainy
        things.
        >
        > Look for an early storm GOM storm, Alberto II in late July, and a
        > heavy shifted season, with most of the action further south then
        > historically seen.
      • fredwx
        Trying the link again - click on the icon over Florida: http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards/
        Message 3 of 6 , Apr 1 10:26 AM
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          Trying the link again - click on the icon over Florida:

          http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards/
          http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards/Archive/Mar2002/modis_
          > fl_blk_20020130_lrg.jpg
          >
          > --- In methanehydrateclub@y..., pawnfart <no_reply@y...> wrote:
          > > It's April and so here goes. Parenthetically, last Friday on
          NPR's
          > > Talk of the Nation/Science Friday they talked about El Nino and
          the
          > > Drought:
          > >
          > > ++++++++++++++++
          > >
          > > http://www.npr.org/ramfiles/totn/20020329.totn.01.ram
          > >
          > > Drought / El Nino
          > >
          > > Guests:
          > >
          > > Donald A. Wilhite
          > > * Director, National Drought Mitigation Center
          > > * International Drought Information Center
          > > * Associate Director and Professor, School of Natural Resource
          > > Sciences
          > > * University of Nebraska
          > > * Lincoln, Nebraska
          > >
          > > Tony Barnston
          > > * Head, Forecast Operations
          > > * International Research Institute for Climate Prediction
          > > * Lamont Dougherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University
          > > * Palisades, New York
          > >
          > > Joseph Atkinson
          > > * Professor, Department of Civil, Structural and Environmental
          > > Engineering
          > > * Director, Great Lakes Program University at Buffalo, State
          > > University of New York
          > > * Buffalo, New York
          > >
          > > East coast states from Maine to Georgia and western states from
          > > Montana down through Texas are facing drought conditions. Climate
          > > forecasters don't see much relief on the way. In this hour, we'll
          > > take a look at the causes of the drought, whether or not there's
          an
          > > El Nino connection, and the climate forecasts for the months
          ahead.
          > > Plus, we'll hear how the drought is affecting one part of the
          > country
          > > -- the Great Lakes.
          > >
          > > +++++++++++++
          > >
          > > This is REALLY worth the listen. I bring this up because the
          > opinions
          > > of these researchers remind me of what perhaps traditionaly
          > > forecaster would say about forecasts of El Nino. And I again say
          > > chaos then, chaos now leads to a conclusion, wrongheaded, that
          > fossil
          > > fuel use is okay. It is biological modulation then, modulation
          > now,
          > > defect in feedback loops that allows me to rationally state that
          > > there is a problem--as well as to make some preductions. Well, I
          > > correctly disputed the El Nino call last year about this time
          right
          > > here at this club/group and I am going to do it again this year.
          > >
          > > I will write this so it is unequivical. No El Nino. And it is
          > EASY
          > > to forecast this with the flaring peak over and the melting
          glacial
          > > ice in the Southern Oceans. (Thanks B-1--you rule). That is
          > critical
          > > to any hurricane forecast.
          > >
          > > Now, let me talk about the drought. Particularly on the East
          Coast
          > > and in the SW and Colorado flood plain. Great Lakes remain at
          > record
          > > lows like last year--haven't seen low levels like this since
          > changes
          > > to the Mississippi delta swamps in the 60s. This means there is
          NO
          > > WAY there will be a NE coast landfall. It also means it is less
          > > likely, but possible, for a NC landfall. The EPAC will continue
          to
          > > see reduced overall activity AFTER the energy from the "El Nino"
          > > winds of March dispates perhaps with another early large May
          storm.
          > >
          > > The no El Nino is consistant with this headline discussed here
          this
          > > weekend:
          > >
          > > SCRIPPS SCIENTIST DISCOVERS WARMING TREND IN SOUTHERN OCEAN OVER
          > THE
          > > LAST 50 YEARS
          > >
          > > Decline in Antarctic sea ice, carbon dioxide storage, possible
          > > implications
          > > http://scrippsnews.ucsd.edu/pressreleases/gille_science_warm.html
          > >
          > >
          > > As I have been saying now for some time, warmer Southern Ocean
          > means
          > > that it conducts a current better. Put another way, the water has
          a
          > > higher specific conductivity. The general direction of current
          > > (excepting the eddy by B-22) has inducted a current against
          cirrus
          > > formation (EASTWARD) and that is why warmer ocean mean both
          melting
          > > glaciers AND colder interior. Of course, where the oceans are
          > warmer
          > > there is a double effect of where the currents move WESTWARD
          there
          > is
          > > greater cirrus enhancement and extremes of flooding and so forth.
          > > OTOH, where these warm waters melt ice fresh water capping has
          the
          > > effect the other way, which is why I have been pretty confident
          > about
          > > no El Nino. That was the case from 12,500 to 7,500 years ago BP--
          no
          > > El Nino. No El Nino means heavy hurricane activity per Dr.
          Gray's
          > > stats. I will hook you up with Gray links if you doubt it.
          > >
          > > Warmer waters also mean melting hydrate ice, which means drought--
          > > like the east coast. It also may be a biological loss that leads
          > to
          > > low hydrate activity. Which I think is the case w/ the N.
          > Pacific.
          > > Cold anomalies again dominate the north N. Pacific. Is this
          warmer
          > > waters melting hydrates or 30,000 dams built in Asia over the
          past
          > 30
          > > years culminated by Three Gorge's diversion in November 1997?
          > Could
          > > it be the ag changes that go with the hydrology changes as it
          > relates
          > > to the biosphere in the N. Pacific? Changes in moon earth
          > > depressurization and tides? My estimate is it is the dams,
          > > particularly the relocation of millions of people to the Yangtze
          > > combined with warmer ocean temperatures and it has dramatically
          > > depleted the hydrate activity in the northern N. Pacific.
          > >
          > > What does this have to do with hurricanes? Well, it is your
          Great
          > > Lakes problem, drought in the western plains, and Rockies. This
          > > impacts secondary hydrology and therefore impacts the biosphere
          > where
          > > hurricanes take place. Of greatest note is the Great Lake's
          > drainage
          > > and the NE coast.
          > >
          > > It is incredible to see this with the SST anomalies along the NE
          > > coast:
          > >
          > > http://psbsgi1.nesdis.noaa.gov:8080/PSB/EPS/SST/climo.html
          > >
          > > SST anomalies are up for the 29th. Of interest also are the cold
          > > anomalies off West Africa. This is as predicted with the new dams
          > > built there in the past 5 years--really screwed up Dr. Gray's
          > > forecast. Dams there SHIFT what should be spring rains and
          > feedbacks
          > > that maintain warmth. Cape Verde storms in particular get shut
          down
          > > until much later in the season and then come on much stronger.
          > There
          > > is the problem of an Alberto, but that is related to the
          drought.
          > > What happens is the cold anomalies off the NE coast cause really
          > > strong coriolis driven WESTWARD winds to move to the south of the
          > > cold anomalies. This inducts a strong current and causes over
          time
          > a
          > > cummulative warm patch where an Alberto like storm can form.
          With
          > > flaring down, look for a long churning mid N. Atlantic storm end
          of
          > > July or August.
          > >
          > > Flaring yesterday, for instance, was heavy but otherwise flaring
          > has
          > > started to be quiet. Quiet as a over all long term trend. SSTs
          and
          > > rivers are really going to matter as we move away from the double
          > > peak flaring cycle and are on its decelleration.
          > >
          > > On the 29th SST anomalie here in N. Cal you see slightly cold
          > > anomalies compared to S. Cal w/ straight cold anomalies. That is
          > > related to their drought there and very poor Gaia conditions.
          > Cold
          > > anomalies also dominate in the Gulf of California. That's the
          > > drought in the Colorado flood plain and Gaia feeding back no
          cirrus
          > > enhancement. I think this makes for continued drought conditions
          in
          > > the monsoonal zone of the SW and also probably decreases the
          chance
          > > for an Allison storm this spring.
          > >
          > > The drought in New York and the rest of the east coast will
          > continue
          > > and is continuing by the SST anomalies. Great Lake levels, again,
          > are
          > > at 30 year lows--just like last year. This will continue given
          > > conditions in the N. Pacific. It is going to be very terrible on
          > the
          > > east coast this summer. Very bad. And forget about a hurricane
          > > providing rain relief. Very unlikely.
          > >
          > > Let me now sum up in a nutshell some of the basics of my forecast.
          > >
          > > No El Nino. Very heavy. We will see named storms with an M and
          > > perhaps an O. Shifted late. This is a key aspect of the dams,
          > > particularly West Africa w/ Cape Verde storms and then the dams
          on
          > > the Orinoco and Amazon and other South/Central American rivers.
          > Note
          > > new dams on Orinoco and Amazon and West Africa already giving
          cold
          > > anomaly readings, especially West Africa. This is occurring
          right
          > > now. By August the trend starts to reverse and by October the
          dams
          > > bring Gaia feedbacks warm oceans just when conditions are most
          ripe
          > > for storms. Very dangerous. It's your Mitch, Caracus, Kevin,
          > > Michelle problem and it aint going away. If you get small
          flaring
          > > event timed with this. Well . . . Mitch.
          > >
          > > Florida had black algae bloom and no flooding so far in
          > Mississipi.
          > > It's still early on that. We get some rain and flooding on the
          > > Mississippi and that could change in the next few weeks, but as
          of
          > > right now, the Mississippi input is the subsistance from years of
          > > abuse and the man made lakes starting to show their age and the
          > > swamps in the delta eroding away. 25 square miles per years is
          > lost
          > > to the GOM and that goes straight to the methanogens. Then there
          > is
          > > the weathering, higher CO2 disucssion we have had here and there
          > you
          > > go.
          > >
          > > The Florida bloom is related to the end of the drought and the
          > fires
          > > and all that bio material flowing to oceans. While the waters are
          > > black with algae and fish aren't being caught, it is very strong
          > > hydrate conditions that make Florida a target this year. So
          Florida
          > > and Mississippi are somewhat different biologically this year. I
          am
          > > not sure what that means yet for early GOM storm like Allison,
          > except
          > > that I suspect that we may see one more to the east of the
          > > Mississippi. We will have another post flaring event storm that
          > > historically has landfell to Texas, but I think we are talking
          > about
          > > more of a eastward track.
          > >
          > > (I would also be concerned about tornadic activity in the alley
          in
          > > early May. Conditions are almost the same as 1999. )
          > >
          > > Anyway, the biggest news will be the drought on the east coast,
          > which
          > > as far as I can see will last AT LEAST another 3 months. And
          mean
          > NO
          > > land falls to the NE, consistant with the decrease of these
          storms
          > > over the past 30 years as oceans have warmed against hydrate
          > activity.
          > >
          > > All storms will continue to be in general stalling/flooding
          types,
          > > with slower surface buzz sawing risks due to the lack of SOx
          > > emissions from any volcanic event. Put another way, while I have
          my
          > > eyes on Florida right now, no Andrew is coming to buzz saw things
          > on
          > > the ground. Storms will be more like Allison--low wind rainy
          > things.
          > >
          > > Look for an early storm GOM storm, Alberto II in late July, and a
          > > heavy shifted season, with most of the action further south then
          > > historically seen.
        • pawnfart
          ... This is actually more reasoned than it seems, despite him giving no support to his conclusion. What it relies on, clearly, is the El Nino call that many
          Message 4 of 6 , Apr 1 11:00 AM
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            --- In methanehydrateclub@y..., paul hadfield <paul@p...> wrote:
            > pawnfart said:
            >
            > "(I would also be concerned about tornadic activity in
            > the alley in early May. Conditions are almost the same
            > as 1999. )"
            >
            > very interesting... i say that as a local forecaster
            > named Joe Bauer of WANDTV Central IL during a severe
            > wx special called "Spring Alert" airing last week
            > (3/27) said that "this year was to expected to be weak
            > in the way of activity." he offered no supporting
            > evidence

            This is actually more reasoned than it seems, despite him giving no
            support to his conclusion. What it relies on, clearly, is the El
            Nino call that many meteorologists have made. As demostrated by
            those experts on that last hurricane link who spoke on the NPR show
            (again, highly recommended listening) the best and brightest think
            chaos and El Nino. Both are flat WRONG.

            Historically, when there is El Nino conditions it means low hurricane
            AND tornadic activity. So his view is reasoned assuming that there
            is an El Nino based on what the experts, like NOAA, called. But, as
            I have posted below in great detail--there will be no El Nino. What
            we will instead have is what I call a post flaring event nuetral or
            cold anomalies. What that tends to mean is that instead of the
            equatorial counter current and winds reversing themselves like an El
            Nino, the equatorials follow normal EASTWARD tracking and when these
            flaring/post El Nino warmed equatorials move in that direction near
            Panama in the E. Pac they then begin to move NW toward the California
            coast. These waters heat up then and really enhance the subtropical
            jet that moves toward the tornado zone.

            So what you have, if you look at SST anomalies from 1999 and what is
            slowly forming now, is a line between cold anomalies in the N.
            Pacific and warm anomalies riding all the way from the E. Pac to the
            GOM to the N. Atlantic. That line that divides these two extremes
            runs right through tornado alley.

            Now, during an El Nino, GENERALLY SPEAKING there is flaring patterns
            that enhance cirrus relative to what the sun is doing, or the action
            is from the sky down--not what the SSTs patterns provide--or the
            action is from the ocean up. That is true despite the obvious ocean
            SST patterns the define an El Nino, and I am speaking about how El
            Nino impacts US weather patterns. What that tends to do is cause
            more steady rainfall conditions and not jet stream driven powerful
            storms where there are contrasting fronts that have organized along
            SST anomalies . . .






            but since 1999 was a big year around here in
            > Central IL (as well as in the S) with 34 tornadoes
            > reported in this region alone (source:
            > http://www.crh.noaa.gov/ilx/torn.htm), who is to say
            > that he is right? in contrast to your statement
            > regarding similiar conditions and the historical facts
            > associated with 1999 also with the fact that 1998 was
            > a HUGE year with 52 reported in Central IL, i wonder
            > where someone like him gets his info to make such a
            > statement about the outcome when in fact we won't know
            > till the season is over. granted, 2000 and 2001 were
            > fairly quiet however 2001 presented a "late bloomer"
            > on October 24th mauling a large area of Monticello IL
            > and way past the usual season. i'll be following your
            > theory along with our local met's prediction to see
            > who is right or at least closest. so far you've been
            > dead on and it would be funny if our local guy eats
            > his words... just so long as it isn't at the expense
            > of life or property... be well!
            >
            > (that link contains a host of interesting Central IL
            > tornado stats, take note of the pattern-like flow of
            > the numbers.)
            >
            > =====
            > stop by anytime! http://www.pawleewurx.com
            >
            > __________________________________________________
            > Do You Yahoo!?
            > Yahoo! Greetings - send holiday greetings for Easter, Passover
            > http://greetings.yahoo.com/
          • pawleewurx
            as always you host the most fascinating discussions. i have been sharing your commentary with a number of local friend s and indeed it has inspired some
            Message 5 of 6 , Apr 2 7:05 PM
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              as always you host the most fascinating discussions. i have been
              sharing your commentary with a number of local friend's and indeed it
              has inspired some spirited debate which as you know weather people do
              best! thanks again and do suppose we shall get to see how it goes as
              the months wear on! just hope NO ONE gets anything close to the
              tornado of May 3rd 1999 in Moore OK as seen on TWC"s "Stormweek"
              tonight... be well!

              --- In methanehydrateclub@y..., pawnfart <no_reply@y...> wrote:
              > --- In methanehydrateclub@y..., paul hadfield <paul@p...> wrote:
              > > pawnfart said:
              > >
              > > "(I would also be concerned about tornadic activity in
              > > the alley in early May. Conditions are almost the same
              > > as 1999. )"
              > >
              > > very interesting... i say that as a local forecaster
              > > named Joe Bauer of WANDTV Central IL during a severe
              > > wx special called "Spring Alert" airing last week
              > > (3/27) said that "this year was to expected to be weak
              > > in the way of activity." he offered no supporting
              > > evidence
              >
              > This is actually more reasoned than it seems, despite him giving no
              > support to his conclusion. What it relies on, clearly, is the El
              > Nino call that many meteorologists have made. As demostrated by
              > those experts on that last hurricane link who spoke on the NPR show
              > (again, highly recommended listening) the best and brightest think
              > chaos and El Nino. Both are flat WRONG.
              >
              > Historically, when there is El Nino conditions it means low
              hurricane
              > AND tornadic activity. So his view is reasoned assuming that there
              > is an El Nino based on what the experts, like NOAA, called. But,
              as
              > I have posted below in great detail--there will be no El Nino.
              What
              > we will instead have is what I call a post flaring event nuetral or
              > cold anomalies. What that tends to mean is that instead of the
              > equatorial counter current and winds reversing themselves like an
              El
              > Nino, the equatorials follow normal EASTWARD tracking and when
              these
              > flaring/post El Nino warmed equatorials move in that direction near
              > Panama in the E. Pac they then begin to move NW toward the
              California
              > coast. These waters heat up then and really enhance the
              subtropical
              > jet that moves toward the tornado zone.
              >
              > So what you have, if you look at SST anomalies from 1999 and what
              is
              > slowly forming now, is a line between cold anomalies in the N.
              > Pacific and warm anomalies riding all the way from the E. Pac to
              the
              > GOM to the N. Atlantic. That line that divides these two extremes
              > runs right through tornado alley.
              >
              > Now, during an El Nino, GENERALLY SPEAKING there is flaring
              patterns
              > that enhance cirrus relative to what the sun is doing, or the
              action
              > is from the sky down--not what the SSTs patterns provide--or the
              > action is from the ocean up. That is true despite the obvious
              ocean
              > SST patterns the define an El Nino, and I am speaking about how El
              > Nino impacts US weather patterns. What that tends to do is cause
              > more steady rainfall conditions and not jet stream driven powerful
              > storms where there are contrasting fronts that have organized along
              > SST anomalies . . .
              >
              >
              >
              >
              >
              >
              > but since 1999 was a big year around here in
              > > Central IL (as well as in the S) with 34 tornadoes
              > > reported in this region alone (source:
              > > http://www.crh.noaa.gov/ilx/torn.htm), who is to say
              > > that he is right? in contrast to your statement
              > > regarding similiar conditions and the historical facts
              > > associated with 1999 also with the fact that 1998 was
              > > a HUGE year with 52 reported in Central IL, i wonder
              > > where someone like him gets his info to make such a
              > > statement about the outcome when in fact we won't know
              > > till the season is over. granted, 2000 and 2001 were
              > > fairly quiet however 2001 presented a "late bloomer"
              > > on October 24th mauling a large area of Monticello IL
              > > and way past the usual season. i'll be following your
              > > theory along with our local met's prediction to see
              > > who is right or at least closest. so far you've been
              > > dead on and it would be funny if our local guy eats
              > > his words... just so long as it isn't at the expense
              > > of life or property... be well!
              > >
              > > (that link contains a host of interesting Central IL
              > > tornado stats, take note of the pattern-like flow of
              > > the numbers.)
              > >
              > > =====
              > > stop by anytime! http://www.pawleewurx.com
              > >
              > > __________________________________________________
              > > Do You Yahoo!?
              > > Yahoo! Greetings - send holiday greetings for Easter, Passover
              > > http://greetings.yahoo.com/
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