** G-1 Geomagnetic Storm In Progress **
** S-1 Solar Radiation Storm In Progress **
** Aurora Watch In Effect **
The CME full-halo CME from the M2-class, long duration flare of 3/15
struck home today, triggering a geomagnetic storm and a solar
radiation storm. For the time being at least, the Interplanetary
Magnetic Field has a south-pointing orientation, and aurora are
definitely a possibility this evening. Skywatchers should keep an eye
out around local midnight for aurora. That isn't all the action,
either. Today, there was another full-halo, albeit lopsided, CME that
was generated by a somewhat long duration M1-class flare, again from
sunspot region 9866. That CME is scheduled to arrive sometime on the
20th, and could trigger another round of geomagnetic storm activity.
Sunspot regiuons 9866 and 9871 remain a threat for more flares.
The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :
NOAA sunspot number : 136
SFI : 178
A index : 11
K index : 5
Solar wind speed : 438.9 km/sec
Solar wind density : 7.9 protons/cc
Solar wind pressure : 2.8 nPa
IMF : 13.8 nT
IMF Orientation : 9.7 nT South
Conditions for the last 24 hours :
Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor. Geomagnetic storms
reaching the G1 level occurred. Solar radiation storms reaching the S1
Forecast for the next 24 hours :
Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be minor.
Geomagnetic storms reaching the G1 level are expected. Solar radiation
storms reaching the S1 level are expected. Radio blackouts reaching
the R1 level are expected.
Solar activity forecast :
Solar activity is expected to be moderate. Regions 9866 and 9871 are
considered to be the most likely sources for M-class flares. There is
a slight chance for a major flare during the next three days.
Geomagnetic activity forecast :
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly active for the next 24
hours, with a chance for some isolated minor storm periods. After the
current transient flow subsides there should be a lull in activity,
but another shock is expected to arrive near mid-day (UT time) on the
20th in response to today's halo CME. Activity following this shock is
expected to be mostly active. Conditions should subside to unsettled
sometime on the third day. The greater than 10 MeV proton event is
likely to end sometime in the next 12 hours.
Recent significant solar flare activity :
18-Mar-2002 0231Z M1.0
17-Mar-2002 1931Z M4.0
17-Mar-2002 1019Z M1.3