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Solar Activity Report for 3/17/02

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  • b1blancer_29501
    ** Aurora Watch In Effect ** Solar activity has been on the upswing over the weekend, with 3 M-class flares being produced by sunspot region 9866. A long
    Message 1 of 1 , Mar 17 3:00 PM
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      ** Aurora Watch In Effect **

      Solar activity has been on the upswing over the weekend, with 3
      M-class flares being produced by sunspot region 9866. A long duration
      M2.0 flare, which happened on Friday, kicked off a full-halo CME which
      could arrive as this evening. Skywatchers in the northern latitudes
      should keep an eye out for aurora around local midnight. It is
      possible the aurora could extend further south depending upon the
      level of
      geomagnetic activity the arrival of the CME generates. Covering an
      area 5 times that of Earth's surface, sunspot region 9866 is a
      continuing threat for more M-class and possibly X-class flares. The M4
      flare of earlier today triggered a brief S-1 class solar radiation
      storm.

      The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :

      NOAA sunspot number : 124
      SFI : 184
      A index : 2
      K index : 1

      Solar wind speed : 288.6 km/sec
      Solar wind density : 3.0 protons/cc
      Solar wind pressure : 0.4 nPa

      IMF : 5.0 nT
      IMF Orientation : 4.0 nT South

      Conditions for the last 24 hours :
      Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor. Solar radiation
      storms reaching the S1 level occurred. Radio blackouts reaching the R1
      level occurred.

      Forecast for the next 24 hours :
      Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be minor. Radio
      blackouts reaching the R1 level are expected.

      Solar activity forecast :
      Solar activity is expected to be moderate during the next three days,
      with Regions 9866 and 9871 being the most likely sources.

      Geomagnetic activity forecast :
      The geomagnetic field is expected to reach active to minor storm
      levels tomorrow in response to the halo CME event of 15/2310 UTC. A
      decrease to active is expected on the second day and a further decline
      to unsettled is expected by the third day. The current trend of the 10
      MeV protons and the likely arrival of a shock in the next 12 hours all
      suggest that the proton fluxes should once again cross threshold.

      Recent significant solar flare activity :
      17-Mar-2002 1931Z M4.0
      17-Mar-2002 1019Z M1.3
      15-Mar-2002 2315Z M2.0
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