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Solar Ac tivity Report for 3/13/01

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  • b1blancer_29501
    ** Aurora Watch In Effect ** The CME produced by sunspot region 9866 on the 11th is on its way. It turned out to be a somewhat lopsided, but yet still
    Message 1 of 1 , Mar 13, 2002
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      ** Aurora Watch In Effect **

      The CME produced by sunspot region 9866 on the 11th is on its way. It
      turned out to be a somewhat lopsided, but yet still full-halo CME. It
      is probably not squarely Earth-directed, but it could still give us at
      least a glancing blow. It is is now estimated to arrive sometime
      tomorrow, and high latitude aurora are a possibility. Sunspot region
      9866 is continuing its active ways, firing off a strong M5 class flare
      today. A new sunspot region that has just rotated over the eastern
      limb of the solar disk, region 9871, is getting into the act as well,
      producing an M1-class flare yesterday.

      The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :

      NOAA sunspot number : 154
      SFI : 184
      A index : 6
      K index : 0

      Solar wind speed : 426.1 km/sec
      Solar wind density : 5.5 protons/cc
      Solar wind pressure : 1.7 nPa

      IMF : 7.1 nT
      IMF Orientation : 2.3 nT North

      Conditions for the last 24 hours :
      Space weather for the past 24 hours has been moderate. Radio blackouts
      reaching the R2 level occurred.

      Forecast for the next 24 hours :
      Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be minor. Radio
      blackouts reaching the R1 level are expected.

      Solar activity forecast :
      Solar activity is expected to be moderate. Low-level M-flares are
      possible in Regions 9866 and 9871.

      Geomagnetic activity forecast :
      The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled.

      Recent significant solar flare activity :
      14-Mar-2002 0150Z M5.0
      12-Mar-2002 2313Z M1.5
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