Sunspot group 9866 is turning out to be an active sunspot region. It
banged off a long duration M2-class flare yesterday, and launched an
accompanying CME into space. The CME was not squarely Earth-directed,
but there does appear to be a faint halo component to it. We could
receive a glancing blow from the CME, possibly as early as Wednesday.
Sunspot region 9866 now covers an area equal to 5 times Earth's
surface, and more strong M-class flares are definitely a possibility.
The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :
NOAA sunspot number : 153
SFI : 182
A index : 11
K index : 2
Solar wind speed : 432.9 km/sec
Solar wind density : 4.2 protons/cc
Solar wind pressure : 1.2 nPa
IMF : 11.2 nT
IMF Orientation : 1.5 nT North
Conditions for the last 24 hours :
Solar activity was low. The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
Forecast for the next 24 hours :
Solar activity will be low to moderate. The geomagnetic field will be
quiet to unsettled.
Solar activity forecast :
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 9866 has the
potential for M-class and major events.
Geomagnetic activity forecast :
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.
There is a slight chance of isolated active conditions.
Recent significant solar flare activity :
10-Mar-2002 2320Z M2.1