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NOAA's blown ENSO call

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  • pawnfart
    Here s the latest SST anomoly loop (based on 1950-1979 climatology). http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/clim/sst_olr/sst_anim.shtml It shows what the NOAA people
    Message 1 of 1 , Mar 6, 2002
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      Here's the latest SST anomoly loop (based on 1950-1979 climatology).

      http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/clim/sst_olr/sst_anim.shtml

      It shows what the NOAA people relied on to make their blown El Nino
      call.

      Some of you may question my track record for calling ENSO. Actually,
      my track record on ENSO is outstanding. Last year NOAA made the same
      mistaken call. If you go to

      http://psbsgi1.nesdis.noaa.gov:8080/PSB/EPS/SST/climo.html

      And go to March 23, 2001, the SSTs look very much like an El Nino
      forming. Right here at that time last year I said NO El Nino and
      explained why. I think if you search to about that time last year you
      will find it here and I will look tomorrow for it. And right here a
      few days ago I did the same thing and I will explain why again.

      I would also point out what appears to be a coverup. I have been
      watching the SST anomalies for, what, four years now? And if you
      notice, the anomalies are updated every two or three days. But there
      hasn't been any update since 2/18 almost TWO WEEKS!!!! Very very
      unusual. But what continues to be updated is John Daly's ENSO
      section. Go to http://www.john-daly.com and check it out, near the
      end of his page. You will see the WINDS, which actually are the
      defining part, where SSTs are ASSOCIATED with air pressures, there
      had been a WIND blowing El Nino up until 2/18 but since then it has
      been all La Nina. Indeed, it is my view that if they were to show the
      hidden/missing/covered up SST anomalies it would show that warm area
      is decreasing.

      Now, let me explain. When flaring occurs, or electrical pulses from
      the sun are on an upswing, cirrus are enhanced globally with no
      particular pattern by region. OTOH, when flaring isn't so great,
      cirrus are electrically facing a forcing primarly from ocean currents
      and their direction. And generally the warmer the oceans get the more
      the ocean plays and the flaring's input as a forcing is less
      chaotically/randomly distributed. I digress.

      Anyway, the flaring meets a biosphere that enhances the electrical
      activity from a flaring and resulting storms. These storms cause
      river run off and local electrical changes and biological activity
      and if that biological activity causes further ocean shoreline/river
      cirrus enhancement via an decrease in conductivity near hydrate
      fields, even more rain is fed back and wind directions and patterns
      change and locally there is El Nino like warm waters.

      But that isn't the whole story. In order to form a full blown El Nino
      the winds are global and part of a cumulated impact. The cumumulation
      is pronounced the most in the Southern Oceans. There, a wind reversal
      or even a decrease will hender the cirrus reducing currents and
      winds. It is like talking about pistons and a fly wheel. Without the
      fly wheel, the pumping of the pistons isn't going to go anywhere.

      In this case, the Southern Oceans have been visited by a state sized
      berg. This berg is capping the Southern Oceans with cold, fresh water
      and has very low specific conductivity. It makes it very difficult
      for warm anomalies to show up in the Southern Oceans--period, and is
      the reason why when there was Milankovitch warming from 12,500 to
      7,000 years ago BP and ice went from covering 1/3 of the terresphere
      to the about 10% that is covered now there was no El Ninos. The "fly
      wheel" didn't work then, and it is an electrical/magnetic field fly
      wheel.

      All this does is show just how much warming is occurring, because
      that warming is causing warm waters to melt Antarctica ice . . .
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