Loading ...
Sorry, an error occurred while loading the content.

Kelvin waves and ENSO

Expand Messages
  • pawnfart
    http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2002/05mar_kelvinwave.htm Comment: Is it the first sign of a new El Niño -- or just another Kelvin wave? I have already
    Message 1 of 2 , Mar 5, 2002
    View Source
    • 0 Attachment
      http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2002/05mar_kelvinwave.htm

      Comment:

      Is it the first sign of a new El Niño -- or just another "Kelvin
      wave?"

      I have already predicted NO El Nino despite some NOAA monitoring of
      ocean temps that indicated an El Nino. It also counters Daly's site.

      Let me tell you why I think Kelvin waves are predicitive. The move
      WESTWARD, inducting current, and warmer, they are more conductive and
      when they hit South America the rain they bring can be a spark that
      washes sed and detritus from a dry patch into the oceans and increase
      electrically insulating conditions. The storms generated themselves
      add electrical change to a region. But the key is whether the wind
      patterns will remain persistant and for a full blown El Nino it is
      more about the Southern Ocean and a larger dynamic that IMHO includes
      the earth's magnetic field. That is why the state sized berg that
      broke off of Antarctica just south of New Zealand is a key player.
      Understand the isobars of the earth's magnetic field are closest near
      the poles and the feedbacks to cirrus are very strong, despite
      colder, less conductive waters. The more conductive warmer waters on
      the one hand will send and inducted current INTO the oceans that
      reduces cirrus enhancement as the circumpolar current there moves
      with great intensity EASTWARD. HOWEVER, a change in the earth's
      magnetic field from this induction alters the very field!!!. If
      combined with a strong flaring event, such as we had this winter, the
      entire dynamic is altered and an El Nino occurs. The biggest sign of
      this is about 4 months before an El Nino the Southern Oceans go warm
      anomaly.

      Got to this link and compare late February and early March, 1997 with
      the most recent anomalies:

      http://psbsgi1.nesdis.noaa.gov:8080/PSB/EPS/SST/climo.html

      What you will see is right now eastward from the berg are cold
      anomalies and then the entire Southern Ocean was on fire. Not only
      will there not be an El Nino as NOAA estimates but the berg promises
      to bring a very solid La Nina.
    • b1blancer_29501
      I tried to post that NASA story yesterday afternoon, but it apparantly vanished in cyber-space. Glad you found it anyway.
      Message 2 of 2 , Mar 6, 2002
      View Source
      • 0 Attachment
        I tried to post that NASA story yesterday afternoon, but it apparantly
        vanished in cyber-space. Glad you found it anyway.
      Your message has been successfully submitted and would be delivered to recipients shortly.