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No El Nino this year and why

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  • Pawnfart
    Check out these links and note that we have a drought in New York and along the East Coast:
    Message 1 of 702 , Feb 9, 2002
      Check out these links and note that we have a
      drought in New York and along the East
      Coast:<br><br><a href=http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/toga-tao/pmel-graphics/gif/winter.gif target=new>http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/toga-tao/pmel-graphics/gif/winter.gif</a><br><br><a href=http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/toga-tao/pmel-graphics/gif/summer.gif target=new>http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/toga-tao/pmel-graphics/gif/summer.gif</a><br><br>Please notice that there are dry patch anomalies for
      winter El Ninos--that match the New York/East Coast dry
      patch drought. IMHO, the mechanism is related to the
      idea that El Ninos bring warmer SSTs in the tropical
      Atlantic, which in turn makes the Gulf Stream warmer, which
      in turn causes the Gulf counter current at DEPTHs to
      melt hydrates and decrease cirrus enhancement. Put
      another way, electrical resistance along the East coast
      is decreased. Melted hydrates are not as insulating
      and cirrus are reduced or not as enhanced. Part of
      this dynamic is Gaia and explains a kind of bistable
      system where biological conditions feedback two
      different states of climate, La Nina and El Nino, both
      related to where there are persistent western and eastern
      winds. But this at the end of the day results in the
      Southern Oceans currents and winds reversing themselves
      and not reducing cirrus. The Southern Oscillation
      historically predates El Ninos by about four months (see John
      Daly's El Nino expert's page).<br><br>Now, I think that
      the past two winters, with flaring and wind patterns,
      were in a way favorable for an El Nino to develope but
      it did not and will not because the ocean
      temperatures in the Southern Oceans are so warm that large ice
      bergs are calving as opposed to being warm and
      conductive and therefore big time cirrus reducers by
      inducting current into the earth and then afterwards the
      earth with that current actually alters the earth's
      magnetic field such that where the isobars are close there
      is a change in what induction can occur and cirrus
      clouds begin to be able to form in the Southern Oceans.
      So there is such a thing as too warm for El Nino.
      Indeed, during Milankovitch warming from 12,500 to 7,500
      there were no El Ninos per Equador lake bed core
      studies.<br><br>Check out this
      link:<br><br><a href=http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/climo_archive/anomnight.1.5.1998.gif target=new>http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/climo_archive/anomnight.1.5.1998.gif</a> <br><br>This is the last big El Nino. Please look
      at the warm anomalies respecting the Antarctic
      circumpolar--warm where there should be cirrus reducing eastward
      ocean movements. Neat, eh? What is called the Southern
      Oscilltion preceeds the El Nino by about 4 months. What I
      think happened is following Mt. Pinatubo there was so
      much SOx emissions, dropping phase change temps of
      cirrus, and cooling the planet, that there was less
      melting of glaciel ice at the same time there was
      flaring/warm conditions in the S/O that starts an electrical
      condition where the earth's magnetic field gets distorted
      for a short period of time and the entire induction
      dynamic of the ocean changes. Indeed, it is my view that
      it would take a reversal of the Southern Ocean or a
      blockage of it, perhaps with ice, to cause a magnetic
      field reversal. <br><br>In any event, because the ice
      bergs are in the Southern Ocean, there is less specific
      conductivity and the cirrus reduction of the EASTWARD
      movements is less meaningful, putting fewer electrons into
      the oceans and ultimately into the earth that would
      cause a change in the magnetic field DESPITE WARM
      these flip flop of magnetic conditions required to end
      the dampening that seems to occur where winds move
      back and forth smoothly from east to west on shorter
      timescales as in nuetral event years, and a sustained El
      Nino wind occurs.<br><br>Once that wind does occur
      biological conditions feed back on it for a time, and the
      wind stays for a season.
    • b1blancer_29501
      On Feb 28th, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field swung to a strong south-pointing orientation. That, coupled with an elevated solar wind speed and density,
      Message 702 of 702 , Mar 1, 2002
        On Feb 28th, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field
        swung to a strong south-pointing orientation. That,
        coupled with an elevated solar wind speed and density,
        triggered a G-1 class geomagnetic storm. The result was
        some high latitude aurora. See this link for a
        photgraph of aurora observed over Quebec :
        <a href=http://www.spaceweather.com/aurora/images/01mar02/Moussette2.jpg target=new>http://www.spaceweather.com/aurora/images/01mar02/Moussette2.jpg</a> . As of right now, there are 3 sunspot regions,
        namely 9839, 9842, and 9845, that appear to be capable
        of producing M-class flares. Regions 9839 and 9842
        are close to rotating out of view over the western
        limb of the solar disk. Sunspot region 9845, however,
        is close to the sun's central meridian. A rather
        large coronal hole is also approaching the sun's
        central meridian, and coming into an Earth-pointing
        position. High speed colar wind gusts are likely around the
        first of next week.<br><br>The current solar and
        geomagnetic conditions are :<br><br>NOAA sunspot number :
        153<br>SFI : 188<br>A index : 10<br>K index : 1<br><br>Solar
        wind speed : 372.3 km/sec<br>Solar wind density : 4.4
        protons/cc<br>Solar wind pressure : 1.1 nPa<br><br>IMF : 8.4
        nT<br>IMF Orientation : 0.7 nT North<br><br>Conditions for
        the last 24 hours : <br>Solar activity was low. The
        geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Stratwarm Alert
        exists Friday.<br><br>Forecast for the next 24 hours
        :<br>Solar activity will be low to moderate. The geomagnetic
        field will be quiet to unsettled.<br><br>Solar Activity
        Forecast :<br>Solar activity is expected to be low to
        moderate for the next three days. Region 9845 is a
        possible source for isolated M-class
        flares.<br><br>Geomagnetic activity forecast :<br>Geomagnetic field activity
        is expected to be mainly quiet to unsettled, until
        the onset of high speed stream effects from a
        recurrent coronal hole begin to develop by day three of the
        forecast period. Isolated active conditions are
        anticipated thereafter.<br><br>Recent significant solar flare
        activity :<br>None
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