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NASA makes ENSO call

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  • Pawnfart
    For the latest NOAA discussion on the potential 2002 El Nino event see:
    Message 1 of 702 , Feb 5, 2002
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      For the latest NOAA discussion on the potential
      2002 El Nino event see:
      <br><br><a href=http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory target=new>http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory</a> <br><br>They are calling for one soon.
      <br><br><a href=http://www.john-daly.com/elnino.htm target=new>http://www.john-daly.com/elnino.htm</a> <br><br>If you take a look at Daly's ENSO page
      it's been La Nina for the past month or so. Flaring
      hit a double peak last month but since then it has
      actually been slow on the flaring front. For space weather
      info, we have a retired MET, B-1, at our Methane
      Hydrate Club, making space weather reports daily. See
      <br><br><a href=http://www.clubs.yahoo.com/clubs/methanehydrateclub target=new>http://www.clubs.yahoo.com/clubs/methanehydrateclub</a> <br><br>I would mention we had a little flaring
      yesterday and all of a sudden we get Chris, a cat 5 on
      hurricane scale. <br><br>B-1 mentions a new space weather
      sat being launched that will bring even greater
      detail. <br><br>The fact that flaring matters is
      signficant as far as I am concerned because if ENSO is
      purely a thermal thing were warmer waters cause more
      water vapor and Walker cells then flaring shouldn't
      matter. But flaring matters because a Walker cell IS
      electrical with WEST moving surface winds and cirrus being
      inducted above or not. Flaring causes enhancement
      disconnected with SSTs and surface winds and hence alters ENSO
      conditions, especially because with warmer SSTs more
      conductive, different signed ions are sorted with warmer to
      colder and colder to warmer electrically speaking.
      <br><br><a href=http://www.john-daly.com/elnino.htm target=new>http://www.john-daly.com/elnino.htm</a> <br><br>I would note that Daly himself, other
      then his solar man's prediction, has not made any El
      Nino call yet. "Dr Theodor Landscheidt's new solar
      model which explains the timing of ENSO events,
      predicting the next El Ni�o to peak in late 2002, �6 months.
      This suggests the next El Ni�o should start around
      April/May 2002 (possibly as early as November 2001, or as
      late as November 2002)." <br><br>I would note that
      Landscheidt's stats are based on history and haven't had to
      deal with warmer oceans, hence more conductive and
      more cirrus reduction in the southern oceans combined
      with that state sized berg. Landscheidt also noted a
      SST change in the SO that predates El Nino by about 4
      months. This clearly occurred for the 1998 El Nino and
      IMHO is related to induction down increasing at first
      but then finding a magnetic field alteration. And it
      doesn't yet appear:
      <br><br><a href=http://psbsgi1.nesdis.noaa.gov:8080/PSB/EPS/SST/climo.html target=new>http://psbsgi1.nesdis.noaa.gov:8080/PSB/EPS/SST/climo.html</a> <br><br>One must then ponder how all this flaring
      AND this huge glacier plays in the cirrus enhancement
      dynamic, starting the the SO. Merely looking at ocean
      temperatures and their progression isn't going to necessarily
      do it, which appears to be what NASA is trying to
    • b1blancer_29501
      On Feb 28th, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field swung to a strong south-pointing orientation. That, coupled with an elevated solar wind speed and density,
      Message 702 of 702 , Mar 1 9:47 PM
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        On Feb 28th, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field
        swung to a strong south-pointing orientation. That,
        coupled with an elevated solar wind speed and density,
        triggered a G-1 class geomagnetic storm. The result was
        some high latitude aurora. See this link for a
        photgraph of aurora observed over Quebec :
        <a href=http://www.spaceweather.com/aurora/images/01mar02/Moussette2.jpg target=new>http://www.spaceweather.com/aurora/images/01mar02/Moussette2.jpg</a> . As of right now, there are 3 sunspot regions,
        namely 9839, 9842, and 9845, that appear to be capable
        of producing M-class flares. Regions 9839 and 9842
        are close to rotating out of view over the western
        limb of the solar disk. Sunspot region 9845, however,
        is close to the sun's central meridian. A rather
        large coronal hole is also approaching the sun's
        central meridian, and coming into an Earth-pointing
        position. High speed colar wind gusts are likely around the
        first of next week.<br><br>The current solar and
        geomagnetic conditions are :<br><br>NOAA sunspot number :
        153<br>SFI : 188<br>A index : 10<br>K index : 1<br><br>Solar
        wind speed : 372.3 km/sec<br>Solar wind density : 4.4
        protons/cc<br>Solar wind pressure : 1.1 nPa<br><br>IMF : 8.4
        nT<br>IMF Orientation : 0.7 nT North<br><br>Conditions for
        the last 24 hours : <br>Solar activity was low. The
        geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Stratwarm Alert
        exists Friday.<br><br>Forecast for the next 24 hours
        :<br>Solar activity will be low to moderate. The geomagnetic
        field will be quiet to unsettled.<br><br>Solar Activity
        Forecast :<br>Solar activity is expected to be low to
        moderate for the next three days. Region 9845 is a
        possible source for isolated M-class
        flares.<br><br>Geomagnetic activity forecast :<br>Geomagnetic field activity
        is expected to be mainly quiet to unsettled, until
        the onset of high speed stream effects from a
        recurrent coronal hole begin to develop by day three of the
        forecast period. Isolated active conditions are
        anticipated thereafter.<br><br>Recent significant solar flare
        activity :<br>None
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