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Solar Activity Report for 2/3/02

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  • b1blancer_29501
    There hasn t been a whole lot of solar flare activity over the last 2 days to speak of, despite the fact that sunspot region 9802 has a magnetic field that
    Message 1 of 702 , Feb 3, 2002
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      There hasn't been a whole lot of solar flare
      activity over the last 2 days to speak of, despite the
      fact that sunspot region 9802 has a magnetic field
      that makes it look like it could fire off a major
      flare at any time. However, the relative lack of solar
      activity didn't stop some aurora from happening the night
      of 2/1. A solar wind disturbance generated by the
      M3.6 flare of 1/31, coupled with a strongly
      south-pointing interplanetary magnetic field (IMF), combined to
      create minor geomagnetic storm conditions. The result
      was aurora, which were spotted and photographed in
      Alaska, Canada, and North Dakota. Here are some pictures
      :
      <a href=http://www.spaceweather.com/aurora/gallery_01feb02.html target=new>http://www.spaceweather.com/aurora/gallery_01feb02.html</a> . A large coronal hole is now squarely in an
      Earth pointing position. High speed solar wind gusts
      from that will likely reach Earth on Wednesday or
      Thursday. Geomagnetic storm conditions are definitely a
      possibility.<br><br>The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are
      :<br><br>NOAA sunspot number : 273<br>SFI : 233<br>A index :
      5<br>K index : 2<br><br>Solar wind speed : 340.2
      km/sec<br>Solar wind density : 5.7 protons/cc<br>Solar wind
      pressure : 1.0 nPa<br><br>IMF : 6.5 nT<br>IMF Orientation
      : 5.7 nT North<br><br>Conditions for the last 24
      hours :<br>Solar activity was moderate. The geomagnetic
      field was quiet to unsettled.<br><br>Forecast for the
      next 24 hours :<br>Solar activity will be low to
      moderate. The geomagnetic field will be quiet to
      unsettled.<br><br>Solar activity forecast :<br>Solar activity is expected
      to be at predominantly low to moderate levels. A
      slight chance for major flare activity is
      possible.<br><br>Geomagnetic activity forecast :<br>The geomagnetic field
      activity is expected to be quiet to unsettled through days
      one and two of the forecast period. Day three may see
      active levels with possible minor storm conditions due
      to the onset of a favorably positioned coronal
      hole<br><br>Recent significant solar flare activity :<br>04-Feb-2002
      0555Z M1.5
    • b1blancer_29501
      On Feb 28th, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field swung to a strong south-pointing orientation. That, coupled with an elevated solar wind speed and density,
      Message 702 of 702 , Mar 1, 2002
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        On Feb 28th, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field
        swung to a strong south-pointing orientation. That,
        coupled with an elevated solar wind speed and density,
        triggered a G-1 class geomagnetic storm. The result was
        some high latitude aurora. See this link for a
        photgraph of aurora observed over Quebec :
        <a href=http://www.spaceweather.com/aurora/images/01mar02/Moussette2.jpg target=new>http://www.spaceweather.com/aurora/images/01mar02/Moussette2.jpg</a> . As of right now, there are 3 sunspot regions,
        namely 9839, 9842, and 9845, that appear to be capable
        of producing M-class flares. Regions 9839 and 9842
        are close to rotating out of view over the western
        limb of the solar disk. Sunspot region 9845, however,
        is close to the sun's central meridian. A rather
        large coronal hole is also approaching the sun's
        central meridian, and coming into an Earth-pointing
        position. High speed colar wind gusts are likely around the
        first of next week.<br><br>The current solar and
        geomagnetic conditions are :<br><br>NOAA sunspot number :
        153<br>SFI : 188<br>A index : 10<br>K index : 1<br><br>Solar
        wind speed : 372.3 km/sec<br>Solar wind density : 4.4
        protons/cc<br>Solar wind pressure : 1.1 nPa<br><br>IMF : 8.4
        nT<br>IMF Orientation : 0.7 nT North<br><br>Conditions for
        the last 24 hours : <br>Solar activity was low. The
        geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Stratwarm Alert
        exists Friday.<br><br>Forecast for the next 24 hours
        :<br>Solar activity will be low to moderate. The geomagnetic
        field will be quiet to unsettled.<br><br>Solar Activity
        Forecast :<br>Solar activity is expected to be low to
        moderate for the next three days. Region 9845 is a
        possible source for isolated M-class
        flares.<br><br>Geomagnetic activity forecast :<br>Geomagnetic field activity
        is expected to be mainly quiet to unsettled, until
        the onset of high speed stream effects from a
        recurrent coronal hole begin to develop by day three of the
        forecast period. Isolated active conditions are
        anticipated thereafter.<br><br>Recent significant solar flare
        activity :<br>None
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