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Solar Activity Report for 1/14/02

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  • b1blancer_29501
    The sun is dotted with several sunspot regions this evening, with sunspot regions 9773 and 9778 having the potential of producing a major X-class flare.
    Message 1 of 702 , Jan 14, 2002
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      The sun is dotted with several sunspot regions
      this evening, with sunspot regions 9773 and 9778
      having the potential of producing a major X-class flare.
      Additionally, sunspot region 9775 has M-class flare potential.
      There have been six M-class flares in the last 48
      hours, the largest being an strong, long duration M4.4
      eruption which occurred just over the southwestern limb of
      the solar disk. It kicked off an impressive figure
      "8" shaped CME, which can be seen here :
      <a href=http://www.spaceweather.com/images2002/14jan02/cme_c3_big.gif target=new>http://www.spaceweather.com/images2002/14jan02/cme_c3_big.gif</a> . It was not Earth directed.<br><br>The current
      solar and geomagnetic conditions are :<br><br>NOAA
      sunspot number : 191<br>SFI : 229<br>A index : 10<br>K
      index : 2<br><br>Solar wind speed : 519.3
      km/sec<br>Solar wind density : 3.8 protons/cc<br>Solar wind
      pressure : 0.9 nPa<br><br>IMF : 5.7 nT<br>IMF Orientation
      : 1.1 nT South<br><br>Conditions for the last 24
      hours :<br>Solar activity was moderate. The geomagnetic
      field was quiet to unsettled.<br><br>Forecast for the
      next 24 hours :<br>Solar activity will be moderate.
      The geomagnetic field will be quiet to
      unsettled.<br><br>Solar activity forecast :<br>Solar activity is expected
      to be low to moderate for the next three days.
      Isolated major flare activity is possible from the regions
      discussed in Section 1A above.<br><br>Geomagnetic activity
      forecast :<br>Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be
      predominantly quiet to unsettled. Enhancements of particle
      fluxes for >10MeV protons or >2MeV electrons could
      result in above-threshold events during the
      period<br><br>Recent significant solar flare activity :<br>14-Jan-2002
      2246Z M1.1 <br>14-Jan-2002 0627Z M4.4 <br>14-Jan-2002
      0156Z M1.7 <br>14-Jan-2002 0136Z M1.0 <br>13-Jan-2002
      0946Z M2.2 <br>13-Jan-2002 0310Z M1.4
    • b1blancer_29501
      On Feb 28th, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field swung to a strong south-pointing orientation. That, coupled with an elevated solar wind speed and density,
      Message 702 of 702 , Mar 1, 2002
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        On Feb 28th, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field
        swung to a strong south-pointing orientation. That,
        coupled with an elevated solar wind speed and density,
        triggered a G-1 class geomagnetic storm. The result was
        some high latitude aurora. See this link for a
        photgraph of aurora observed over Quebec :
        <a href=http://www.spaceweather.com/aurora/images/01mar02/Moussette2.jpg target=new>http://www.spaceweather.com/aurora/images/01mar02/Moussette2.jpg</a> . As of right now, there are 3 sunspot regions,
        namely 9839, 9842, and 9845, that appear to be capable
        of producing M-class flares. Regions 9839 and 9842
        are close to rotating out of view over the western
        limb of the solar disk. Sunspot region 9845, however,
        is close to the sun's central meridian. A rather
        large coronal hole is also approaching the sun's
        central meridian, and coming into an Earth-pointing
        position. High speed colar wind gusts are likely around the
        first of next week.<br><br>The current solar and
        geomagnetic conditions are :<br><br>NOAA sunspot number :
        153<br>SFI : 188<br>A index : 10<br>K index : 1<br><br>Solar
        wind speed : 372.3 km/sec<br>Solar wind density : 4.4
        protons/cc<br>Solar wind pressure : 1.1 nPa<br><br>IMF : 8.4
        nT<br>IMF Orientation : 0.7 nT North<br><br>Conditions for
        the last 24 hours : <br>Solar activity was low. The
        geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Stratwarm Alert
        exists Friday.<br><br>Forecast for the next 24 hours
        :<br>Solar activity will be low to moderate. The geomagnetic
        field will be quiet to unsettled.<br><br>Solar Activity
        Forecast :<br>Solar activity is expected to be low to
        moderate for the next three days. Region 9845 is a
        possible source for isolated M-class
        flares.<br><br>Geomagnetic activity forecast :<br>Geomagnetic field activity
        is expected to be mainly quiet to unsettled, until
        the onset of high speed stream effects from a
        recurrent coronal hole begin to develop by day three of the
        forecast period. Isolated active conditions are
        anticipated thereafter.<br><br>Recent significant solar flare
        activity :<br>None
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