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Father Time and Gaia

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  • Pawnfart
    Carl Sagan, I suppose, was the first public figure to really talk about it. The sun is getting brighter. It is slowly turning to a red giant. Red Giants are
    Message 1 of 702 , Jan 3, 2002
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      Carl Sagan, I suppose, was the first public
      figure to really talk about it. The sun is getting
      brighter. It is slowly turning to a red giant. Red Giants
      are stars seen throughout the universe--stars like
      our sun, only older but much bigger and hotter to
      their inner planets. When life first evolved several
      billion years ago, the sun was much less bright--perhaps
      25%, compared to today. And, yes, the future will be
      25% more intense on that same billion year timescale.
      That warming, we are told by most experts on the
      subject, isn't meaningful to the debate on climate,
      because compared to other changes in overall climate,
      such as orbital changes, is insignificant. But
      recently a scientist trained to the ken of
      physics<br>speculated that the increasing lumenousity of the sun would
      cause the earth's oceans to vaporize within a billion
      years from the added heat. <br><br>A solution to this
      problem by the same type of physics minded people was to
      alter the orbit of a large astroid or comment, close to
      the earth and moon so as to deflect them to a wider
      orbit around the sun. In so doing, it is suggested we
      would add to our mortality. <br><br>++++++<br><br>I
      spoke to my father on Christmas Day about happy and sad
      things. The tear jerker was over his father, once a proud
      warrior who faught the Germans in the Battle of the Bulge
      as an officer, is now losing his memory. My
      grandfather recognizes my father as his son, but doesn't know
      his name anymore. Such are the ravages of time. And
      this is hardly to complain--my grandfather was born in
      1904.<br><br>Each of us face our own metaphors of our mortality, I
      suppose, and I apologize in advance for talking about this
      subject, but I think it is important to talk about human
      activity and climate change in a much different context
      then it has been discussed in the past. That is
      because climate is part of a living system, a system that
      like us has aged and faces mortality. This makes
      healthcare of our planet a much different context then has
      been previously realized.<br><br>For instance, the
      solution of moving the earth to a wider orbit has
      secondary considerations. For instance, at this time, the
      moon is almost twice as far away from the earth as it
      was when life first evolved. The day is perhaps three
      times as long. These changes have in turn caused the
      earth's innards to be warm from friction form tidal
      forces, and kept the nickle iron core warm and the
      magnetic field in flux. In this context, life has evolved
      ways of maintaining the earth's electro-magnetic
      fields in such a way as to keep cirrus clouds
      munipulated to feedback living chemical and temperature
      conditions for survival. Yet, this was all in the context of
      a less lumenous sun. As the sun has grown warmer
      and the moon further away, the ability of the biology
      to feedback warming cirrus cloud behavior has
      diminished, but so has the threat of colder climate. Now the
      threat is different, the threat that it has become too
      warm for the feedbacks themselves to
      work.<br><br>Hence, the problem and the solution are misunderstood.
      The issue isn't whether the oceans will boil in a
      billion years, but what is the threshhold of climate at
      which the microbrial biology can no longer modulate
      conditions that produce climate? It could be in three
      billion, it could be in 20 million, assuming, of course,
      no human activity. And the solution of moving the
      orbit brings issues of depressurization of methane
      hydrate fields from changes in the moon's orbit, as well
      as biological questions about whether there are
      microbrial conditions available to warm the earth that
      existed a hundred million years ago.
    • b1blancer_29501
      On Feb 28th, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field swung to a strong south-pointing orientation. That, coupled with an elevated solar wind speed and density,
      Message 702 of 702 , Mar 1, 2002
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        On Feb 28th, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field
        swung to a strong south-pointing orientation. That,
        coupled with an elevated solar wind speed and density,
        triggered a G-1 class geomagnetic storm. The result was
        some high latitude aurora. See this link for a
        photgraph of aurora observed over Quebec :
        <a href=http://www.spaceweather.com/aurora/images/01mar02/Moussette2.jpg target=new>http://www.spaceweather.com/aurora/images/01mar02/Moussette2.jpg</a> . As of right now, there are 3 sunspot regions,
        namely 9839, 9842, and 9845, that appear to be capable
        of producing M-class flares. Regions 9839 and 9842
        are close to rotating out of view over the western
        limb of the solar disk. Sunspot region 9845, however,
        is close to the sun's central meridian. A rather
        large coronal hole is also approaching the sun's
        central meridian, and coming into an Earth-pointing
        position. High speed colar wind gusts are likely around the
        first of next week.<br><br>The current solar and
        geomagnetic conditions are :<br><br>NOAA sunspot number :
        153<br>SFI : 188<br>A index : 10<br>K index : 1<br><br>Solar
        wind speed : 372.3 km/sec<br>Solar wind density : 4.4
        protons/cc<br>Solar wind pressure : 1.1 nPa<br><br>IMF : 8.4
        nT<br>IMF Orientation : 0.7 nT North<br><br>Conditions for
        the last 24 hours : <br>Solar activity was low. The
        geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Stratwarm Alert
        exists Friday.<br><br>Forecast for the next 24 hours
        :<br>Solar activity will be low to moderate. The geomagnetic
        field will be quiet to unsettled.<br><br>Solar Activity
        Forecast :<br>Solar activity is expected to be low to
        moderate for the next three days. Region 9845 is a
        possible source for isolated M-class
        flares.<br><br>Geomagnetic activity forecast :<br>Geomagnetic field activity
        is expected to be mainly quiet to unsettled, until
        the onset of high speed stream effects from a
        recurrent coronal hole begin to develop by day three of the
        forecast period. Isolated active conditions are
        anticipated thereafter.<br><br>Recent significant solar flare
        activity :<br>None
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