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Solar activity report for 1/2/02

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  • b1blancer_29501
    ** S-1 Solar Radiation Storm In Progress ** The solar radiation storm that has persisted on and off since 12/28 is stubbornly hanging on. There have
    Message 1 of 702 , Jan 2, 2002
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      ** S-1 Solar Radiation Storm In Progress
      **<br><br>The solar radiation storm that has persisted on and
      off since 12/28 is stubbornly hanging on. There have
      been 2 M-class flares today. The largest of which, an
      M2.4 eruption, was produced by sunspot region 9754.
      Region 9767 remains quiet. It has decreased in area,
      although it's magnetic structure is unchanged. It is still
      a threat for a major flare.<br><br>The current
      solar and geomagnetic conditions are :<br><br>NOAA
      sunspot number : 241<br>SFI : 231<br>A index : 7<br>K
      index : 0<br><br>Solar wind speed : 358.5
      km/sec<br>Solar wind density : 2.7 protons/cc<br>Solar wind
      pressure : 0.7 nPa<br><br>IMF : 4.8 nT<br>IMF Orientation
      : 0.3 nT North<br><br>Conditions for the last 24
      hours :<br>Solar activity was moderate. The geomagnetic
      field was quiet to unsettled. A satellite proton event
      began at 0245 UTC on 30 December. Stratwarm Alert
      exists Wednesday.<br><br>Forecast for the next 24 hours
      :<br>Solar activity will be moderate. The geomagnetic field
      will be quiet to unsettled. The proton event is
      expected to continue.<br><br>Solar activity forecast
      :<br>Solar activity is expected to be at moderate
      levels.<br><br>Geomagnetic activity forecast :<br>The geomagnetic field is
      expected to remain at quiet to unsettled levels. The
      greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to end late
      on day two of the forecast<br><br>Recent significant
      solar flare activity :<br>02-Jan-2002 2148Z M1.1
      <br>02-Jan-2002 1252Z M2.4
    • b1blancer_29501
      On Feb 28th, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field swung to a strong south-pointing orientation. That, coupled with an elevated solar wind speed and density,
      Message 702 of 702 , Mar 1, 2002
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        On Feb 28th, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field
        swung to a strong south-pointing orientation. That,
        coupled with an elevated solar wind speed and density,
        triggered a G-1 class geomagnetic storm. The result was
        some high latitude aurora. See this link for a
        photgraph of aurora observed over Quebec :
        <a href=http://www.spaceweather.com/aurora/images/01mar02/Moussette2.jpg target=new>http://www.spaceweather.com/aurora/images/01mar02/Moussette2.jpg</a> . As of right now, there are 3 sunspot regions,
        namely 9839, 9842, and 9845, that appear to be capable
        of producing M-class flares. Regions 9839 and 9842
        are close to rotating out of view over the western
        limb of the solar disk. Sunspot region 9845, however,
        is close to the sun's central meridian. A rather
        large coronal hole is also approaching the sun's
        central meridian, and coming into an Earth-pointing
        position. High speed colar wind gusts are likely around the
        first of next week.<br><br>The current solar and
        geomagnetic conditions are :<br><br>NOAA sunspot number :
        153<br>SFI : 188<br>A index : 10<br>K index : 1<br><br>Solar
        wind speed : 372.3 km/sec<br>Solar wind density : 4.4
        protons/cc<br>Solar wind pressure : 1.1 nPa<br><br>IMF : 8.4
        nT<br>IMF Orientation : 0.7 nT North<br><br>Conditions for
        the last 24 hours : <br>Solar activity was low. The
        geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Stratwarm Alert
        exists Friday.<br><br>Forecast for the next 24 hours
        :<br>Solar activity will be low to moderate. The geomagnetic
        field will be quiet to unsettled.<br><br>Solar Activity
        Forecast :<br>Solar activity is expected to be low to
        moderate for the next three days. Region 9845 is a
        possible source for isolated M-class
        flares.<br><br>Geomagnetic activity forecast :<br>Geomagnetic field activity
        is expected to be mainly quiet to unsettled, until
        the onset of high speed stream effects from a
        recurrent coronal hole begin to develop by day three of the
        forecast period. Isolated active conditions are
        anticipated thereafter.<br><br>Recent significant solar flare
        activity :<br>None
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