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the jet?

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  • pawleewurx
    hello everyone, new member here. though i tend to be and will continue to be a silent observer of this discussion, (as i have been since introduced on TWC) i
    Message 1 of 702 , Dec 12, 2001
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      hello everyone, new member here. though i tend to
      be and will continue to be a silent observer of this
      discussion, (as i have been since introduced on TWC) i have
      been wanting to get your opinion(s) on a thought i
      had...<br><br>looking back in retrospect now that Dr. Gray's report has
      been made public, i am wondering if the jet stream
      wasn't in fact the major player as to the lack of major
      HC development this past year. here's
      why...<br><br>since the jet has been for the better part of summer
      and fall riding a predominantly high pattern over the
      US, although LP centers have formed bringing sweeping
      cold fronts over and through the gulf as well as SW
      atlantic, they have not ended up having much "gusto" at
      their southernmost points. depending upon how strong a
      front is, when you reach the southernmost point (such
      as over the gulf or SW atlantic), if the upper level
      temperature is not extremely colder, there won't be a
      dramatic flare up of convection. although the gulf and SW
      atlantic water temps have been fairly normal, due to the
      lack of cold air aloft which would be set into place
      by the work of the jet stream well to the N, we've
      had limited convection because of mild
      surface/atmosphere temp contrast and hence; weaker storms. to add
      substance to this notion, when you look back at allison as
      well as a few other prolific soakers over the
      southland this past year, you notice they didn't move much
      during their course all due to a lack of upper level
      steering... now i am not posting to argue or whatnot because
      i know many of you are extremely passionate on this
      subject but i can't help but offer my $.02 worth. i am
      definitely one to seek objective clarification at all times.
      after all, in my time on the net, the epic methane
      hydrate related discussions have been among the most
      educational opportunities i have been fortunate to
      encounter...<br><br>reply at will and for the record i do believe $$$ in
      Dr. Gray's pocket is likely to have been an influence
      in his report. that or everyone just wants to jump
      on the "corporate landfall bandwagon"... ;)
    • b1blancer_29501
      On Feb 28th, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field swung to a strong south-pointing orientation. That, coupled with an elevated solar wind speed and density,
      Message 702 of 702 , Mar 1, 2002
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        On Feb 28th, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field
        swung to a strong south-pointing orientation. That,
        coupled with an elevated solar wind speed and density,
        triggered a G-1 class geomagnetic storm. The result was
        some high latitude aurora. See this link for a
        photgraph of aurora observed over Quebec :
        <a href=http://www.spaceweather.com/aurora/images/01mar02/Moussette2.jpg target=new>http://www.spaceweather.com/aurora/images/01mar02/Moussette2.jpg</a> . As of right now, there are 3 sunspot regions,
        namely 9839, 9842, and 9845, that appear to be capable
        of producing M-class flares. Regions 9839 and 9842
        are close to rotating out of view over the western
        limb of the solar disk. Sunspot region 9845, however,
        is close to the sun's central meridian. A rather
        large coronal hole is also approaching the sun's
        central meridian, and coming into an Earth-pointing
        position. High speed colar wind gusts are likely around the
        first of next week.<br><br>The current solar and
        geomagnetic conditions are :<br><br>NOAA sunspot number :
        153<br>SFI : 188<br>A index : 10<br>K index : 1<br><br>Solar
        wind speed : 372.3 km/sec<br>Solar wind density : 4.4
        protons/cc<br>Solar wind pressure : 1.1 nPa<br><br>IMF : 8.4
        nT<br>IMF Orientation : 0.7 nT North<br><br>Conditions for
        the last 24 hours : <br>Solar activity was low. The
        geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Stratwarm Alert
        exists Friday.<br><br>Forecast for the next 24 hours
        :<br>Solar activity will be low to moderate. The geomagnetic
        field will be quiet to unsettled.<br><br>Solar Activity
        Forecast :<br>Solar activity is expected to be low to
        moderate for the next three days. Region 9845 is a
        possible source for isolated M-class
        flares.<br><br>Geomagnetic activity forecast :<br>Geomagnetic field activity
        is expected to be mainly quiet to unsettled, until
        the onset of high speed stream effects from a
        recurrent coronal hole begin to develop by day three of the
        forecast period. Isolated active conditions are
        anticipated thereafter.<br><br>Recent significant solar flare
        activity :<br>None
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