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Solar Activity Report for 12/11/01

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  • b1blancer_29501
    Sunspot group 9727 finally lived up to its advertising today by producing a major X2.8 class flare. The eruption was fairly short-lived, and it is uncertain at
    Message 1 of 702 , Dec 11, 2001
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      Sunspot group 9727 finally lived up to its
      advertising today by producing a major X2.8 class flare. The
      eruption was fairly short-lived, and it is uncertain at
      this time whether or not the flare created an
      Earth-directed CME. There should be more news about that
      tomorrow. Meanwhile, we are still expecting to see some
      high speed solar wind gusts late this week due to a
      large coronal hole that is now in an Earth-pointing
      position. Sunspot group 9727 is still capable of producing
      more major flares, and sunspot group 9733 is also
      capable of producing at least M-class flares.<br><br>The
      current solar and geomagnetic conditions are
      :<br><br>NOAA sunspot number : 154<br>SFI : 221<br>A index :
      4<br>K index : 1<br><br>Solar wind speed : 358
      km/sec<br>Solar wind density : 7.2 protons/cc<br>Solar wind
      pressure : 1.7 nPa<br><br>IMF : 11.2 nT<br>IMF Orientation
      : 8.4 nT South<br><br>Conditions for the last 24
      hours :<br>Solar activity was high. The geomagnetic
      field was quiet. A major flare occurred at 0808 UTC on
      11 Dec.<br><br>Forecast for the next 24 hours
      :<br>Solar activity will be moderate to high. The
      geomagnetic field will be quiet to unsettled.<br><br>Solar
      activity forecast :<br>Solar activity is expected to be at
      moderate to high levels. Isolated M-class flares are
      expected from Regions 9727 and 9733. Either region could
      produce a major flare during the period as
      well.<br><br>Geomagnetic activity forecast :<br>Geomagnetic field activity
      is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels
      through the period. There will be a chance for a proton
      flare from Regions 9727 and 9733<br><br>Recent
      significant solar flare activity :<br>11-Dec-2001 1451Z M1.3
      <br>11-Dec-2001 0808Z X2.8
    • b1blancer_29501
      On Feb 28th, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field swung to a strong south-pointing orientation. That, coupled with an elevated solar wind speed and density,
      Message 702 of 702 , Mar 1, 2002
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        On Feb 28th, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field
        swung to a strong south-pointing orientation. That,
        coupled with an elevated solar wind speed and density,
        triggered a G-1 class geomagnetic storm. The result was
        some high latitude aurora. See this link for a
        photgraph of aurora observed over Quebec :
        <a href=http://www.spaceweather.com/aurora/images/01mar02/Moussette2.jpg target=new>http://www.spaceweather.com/aurora/images/01mar02/Moussette2.jpg</a> . As of right now, there are 3 sunspot regions,
        namely 9839, 9842, and 9845, that appear to be capable
        of producing M-class flares. Regions 9839 and 9842
        are close to rotating out of view over the western
        limb of the solar disk. Sunspot region 9845, however,
        is close to the sun's central meridian. A rather
        large coronal hole is also approaching the sun's
        central meridian, and coming into an Earth-pointing
        position. High speed colar wind gusts are likely around the
        first of next week.<br><br>The current solar and
        geomagnetic conditions are :<br><br>NOAA sunspot number :
        153<br>SFI : 188<br>A index : 10<br>K index : 1<br><br>Solar
        wind speed : 372.3 km/sec<br>Solar wind density : 4.4
        protons/cc<br>Solar wind pressure : 1.1 nPa<br><br>IMF : 8.4
        nT<br>IMF Orientation : 0.7 nT North<br><br>Conditions for
        the last 24 hours : <br>Solar activity was low. The
        geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Stratwarm Alert
        exists Friday.<br><br>Forecast for the next 24 hours
        :<br>Solar activity will be low to moderate. The geomagnetic
        field will be quiet to unsettled.<br><br>Solar Activity
        Forecast :<br>Solar activity is expected to be low to
        moderate for the next three days. Region 9845 is a
        possible source for isolated M-class
        flares.<br><br>Geomagnetic activity forecast :<br>Geomagnetic field activity
        is expected to be mainly quiet to unsettled, until
        the onset of high speed stream effects from a
        recurrent coronal hole begin to develop by day three of the
        forecast period. Isolated active conditions are
        anticipated thereafter.<br><br>Recent significant solar flare
        activity :<br>None
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