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More Gray matter . . .

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  • Pawnfart
    http://typhoon.atmos.colostate.edu/forecasts/2002/fcst2002/ The
    Message 1 of 702 , Dec 10, 2001
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      <a href=http://typhoon.atmos.colostate.edu/forecasts/2002/fcst2002/ target=new>http://typhoon.atmos.colostate.edu/forecasts/2002/fcst2002/</a> <br><br>The parameters responsible for these
      skillful early December hindcasts included two measures of
      the nine-month extrapolated Quasi-biennial
      Oscillation (QBO) winds at 30 and 50 mb . . . <br><br>In
      addition it is almost certain that QBO 30 mb and 50 mb
      winds in September 2002 will be from a westerly
      direction. We view the latter as a modest enhancing factor
      for the formation of low latitude hurricanes to the
      east of the Antilles.
      <br><br><a href=http://typhoon.atmos.colostate.edu/forecasts/2002/fcst2002/decpre.png target=new>http://typhoon.atmos.colostate.edu/forecasts/2002/fcst2002/decpre.png</a> <br><br>What you should know about these
      pressures is there solar application. Flaring particles of
      protons and electrons (electrons travel faster) pulse
      into the atmosphere and become part of the earth's
      electrical dyanamic. At low pressures, like 50 mb, the
      insulation impact of the air is minimal and the ion movement
      can be defined by the winds better. As ENSO is
      electrical, so is this indicator of it at low pressures near
      the equator. <br><br>500 mb is where high cirrus
      reside. Where they are looking in their graphic at the
      altitude of those cirrus is near the magnetic north, or at
      least as close as you can get in context with the major
      oceans of the Atlantic and Pacific. So, what this is
      saying to me, in yet another way, is that by looking at
      how solar flaring is impacting, in the context of
      Gaia, the electrical dynamic, and by looking at cirrus,
      a key forcing, you can determine hurricane
      activity! <br><br>BTW, Dr. Gray redeemed himself with a
      cartoon. He is no longer a liar, in my book, but someone
      who is just too afraid to go further with what he
      knows .
    • b1blancer_29501
      On Feb 28th, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field swung to a strong south-pointing orientation. That, coupled with an elevated solar wind speed and density,
      Message 702 of 702 , Mar 1, 2002
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        On Feb 28th, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field
        swung to a strong south-pointing orientation. That,
        coupled with an elevated solar wind speed and density,
        triggered a G-1 class geomagnetic storm. The result was
        some high latitude aurora. See this link for a
        photgraph of aurora observed over Quebec :
        <a href=http://www.spaceweather.com/aurora/images/01mar02/Moussette2.jpg target=new>http://www.spaceweather.com/aurora/images/01mar02/Moussette2.jpg</a> . As of right now, there are 3 sunspot regions,
        namely 9839, 9842, and 9845, that appear to be capable
        of producing M-class flares. Regions 9839 and 9842
        are close to rotating out of view over the western
        limb of the solar disk. Sunspot region 9845, however,
        is close to the sun's central meridian. A rather
        large coronal hole is also approaching the sun's
        central meridian, and coming into an Earth-pointing
        position. High speed colar wind gusts are likely around the
        first of next week.<br><br>The current solar and
        geomagnetic conditions are :<br><br>NOAA sunspot number :
        153<br>SFI : 188<br>A index : 10<br>K index : 1<br><br>Solar
        wind speed : 372.3 km/sec<br>Solar wind density : 4.4
        protons/cc<br>Solar wind pressure : 1.1 nPa<br><br>IMF : 8.4
        nT<br>IMF Orientation : 0.7 nT North<br><br>Conditions for
        the last 24 hours : <br>Solar activity was low. The
        geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Stratwarm Alert
        exists Friday.<br><br>Forecast for the next 24 hours
        :<br>Solar activity will be low to moderate. The geomagnetic
        field will be quiet to unsettled.<br><br>Solar Activity
        Forecast :<br>Solar activity is expected to be low to
        moderate for the next three days. Region 9845 is a
        possible source for isolated M-class
        flares.<br><br>Geomagnetic activity forecast :<br>Geomagnetic field activity
        is expected to be mainly quiet to unsettled, until
        the onset of high speed stream effects from a
        recurrent coronal hole begin to develop by day three of the
        forecast period. Isolated active conditions are
        anticipated thereafter.<br><br>Recent significant solar flare
        activity :<br>None
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