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Re: Review of Dr. Gray's 2002 forecast

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  • Pawnfart
    Of course, all of this isn t what the insurance lobby wants to hear. So it is no wonder this kind of discussion is missing from a sell out like Dr. Gray, who s
    Message 1 of 702 , Dec 9, 2001
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      Of course, all of this isn't what the insurance
      lobby wants to hear. So it is no wonder this kind of
      discussion is missing from a sell out like Dr. Gray, who's
      forecast is sponsered by an insurance interest! Further,
      these monster storms aren't happy news for places like
      Central America. I can only imagine what it was like for
      Cuba with Michelle. And with the Yangtze, and Three
      Gorge, this year we had the last year of a three year
      drought. The drought is related in large part to the
      diversion in November 1997 and a massive movement of people
      to the Yangtze delta from what is to be the flood
      plain of this Superior sized man made lake. The SST
      changes as a result are visable and so has the drought.
      (I should mention that the driest conditions from
      where I write occurred in the 1970s when there as a lot
      of work done on the Columbia river with about 10
      dams, along with some Keeling Whorf moon earth orbital
      depressization conditions on the methane hydrate fields. Anyway,
      a dry patch store a lot of rotting detritus, and
      when the rains do come, as they have, it causes a wet
      patch, even if the trend is toward more cycling of dry
      and wet. This, I suspect, will rise Great Lake
      levels. While there have been several hydro electrical
      projects along the North East associated with the Great
      Lakes, higher levels should bring warmer SSTs to the
      North Atlantic and more favorable conditions for
      landfall next year . . .
    • b1blancer_29501
      On Feb 28th, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field swung to a strong south-pointing orientation. That, coupled with an elevated solar wind speed and density,
      Message 702 of 702 , Mar 1, 2002
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        On Feb 28th, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field
        swung to a strong south-pointing orientation. That,
        coupled with an elevated solar wind speed and density,
        triggered a G-1 class geomagnetic storm. The result was
        some high latitude aurora. See this link for a
        photgraph of aurora observed over Quebec :
        <a href=http://www.spaceweather.com/aurora/images/01mar02/Moussette2.jpg target=new>http://www.spaceweather.com/aurora/images/01mar02/Moussette2.jpg</a> . As of right now, there are 3 sunspot regions,
        namely 9839, 9842, and 9845, that appear to be capable
        of producing M-class flares. Regions 9839 and 9842
        are close to rotating out of view over the western
        limb of the solar disk. Sunspot region 9845, however,
        is close to the sun's central meridian. A rather
        large coronal hole is also approaching the sun's
        central meridian, and coming into an Earth-pointing
        position. High speed colar wind gusts are likely around the
        first of next week.<br><br>The current solar and
        geomagnetic conditions are :<br><br>NOAA sunspot number :
        153<br>SFI : 188<br>A index : 10<br>K index : 1<br><br>Solar
        wind speed : 372.3 km/sec<br>Solar wind density : 4.4
        protons/cc<br>Solar wind pressure : 1.1 nPa<br><br>IMF : 8.4
        nT<br>IMF Orientation : 0.7 nT North<br><br>Conditions for
        the last 24 hours : <br>Solar activity was low. The
        geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Stratwarm Alert
        exists Friday.<br><br>Forecast for the next 24 hours
        :<br>Solar activity will be low to moderate. The geomagnetic
        field will be quiet to unsettled.<br><br>Solar Activity
        Forecast :<br>Solar activity is expected to be low to
        moderate for the next three days. Region 9845 is a
        possible source for isolated M-class
        flares.<br><br>Geomagnetic activity forecast :<br>Geomagnetic field activity
        is expected to be mainly quiet to unsettled, until
        the onset of high speed stream effects from a
        recurrent coronal hole begin to develop by day three of the
        forecast period. Isolated active conditions are
        anticipated thereafter.<br><br>Recent significant solar flare
        activity :<br>None
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