Loading ...
Sorry, an error occurred while loading the content.

Re: Review of Dr. Gray's 2002 forecast

Expand Messages
  • Pawnfart
    One of his ENSO indicators was at 50 mb near the north pole, which is interesting to me because at those low pressures flaring patterns are sensitive and the
    Message 1 of 702 , Dec 9, 2001
    View Source
    • 0 Attachment
      One of his ENSO indicators was at 50 mb near the
      north pole, which is interesting to me because at those
      low pressures flaring patterns are sensitive and the
      isobar lines are closer together respecting the earth's
      magnetic fields. <br><br>It isn't just the state sized
      glaciers melting that indicates La Nina. I suspect the
      biosphere and methanogens begin their dance of wet patch
      and dry patch, creating those electrical conditions
      of an El Nino or La Nina. Indeed, the very
      regularity of ENSO suggests just how biological it is in the
      context of all the chaotic forcings . . . <br><br>The
      lack of landfall is related to river and dams and low
      Great Lake levels and the like. The statistics of
      improbability point to dependant variables. For instance, with
      the Mississippi, it's been subsisting about 25 square
      miles every year in the delta, putting out huge
      quantities of methanogen food, especially in the spring.
      Given the three year drought in Florida and post
      flaring and the floods in Iowa this spring, and low SOx
      emissions from lack of any major volcanic activity, and
      budding warm SSTs at the delta of the Mississipi in
      April, this is how I was able in April to predict a
      stalling and flooding early tropical storm between Texas
      and Louisanna--Allison. Conversely, the river
      conditions of low Great Lakes and then the post flaring end
      of the Florida dry patch and the dams on the Orinoco
      and West Africa, all spelled conditions for low U.S.
      landfall, despite the huge number of storms. Understand,
      late or early, they won't track north to land as well.
      Further, healthy cirrus from lack of SOx emissions makes
      these storms more creaters of their own energies and
      less able to be steared by ambiant wind conditions
      that would drive them ashore--they stay closer to
      their electrical energy sources--the oceans.
    • b1blancer_29501
      On Feb 28th, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field swung to a strong south-pointing orientation. That, coupled with an elevated solar wind speed and density,
      Message 702 of 702 , Mar 1, 2002
      View Source
      • 0 Attachment
        On Feb 28th, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field
        swung to a strong south-pointing orientation. That,
        coupled with an elevated solar wind speed and density,
        triggered a G-1 class geomagnetic storm. The result was
        some high latitude aurora. See this link for a
        photgraph of aurora observed over Quebec :
        <a href=http://www.spaceweather.com/aurora/images/01mar02/Moussette2.jpg target=new>http://www.spaceweather.com/aurora/images/01mar02/Moussette2.jpg</a> . As of right now, there are 3 sunspot regions,
        namely 9839, 9842, and 9845, that appear to be capable
        of producing M-class flares. Regions 9839 and 9842
        are close to rotating out of view over the western
        limb of the solar disk. Sunspot region 9845, however,
        is close to the sun's central meridian. A rather
        large coronal hole is also approaching the sun's
        central meridian, and coming into an Earth-pointing
        position. High speed colar wind gusts are likely around the
        first of next week.<br><br>The current solar and
        geomagnetic conditions are :<br><br>NOAA sunspot number :
        153<br>SFI : 188<br>A index : 10<br>K index : 1<br><br>Solar
        wind speed : 372.3 km/sec<br>Solar wind density : 4.4
        protons/cc<br>Solar wind pressure : 1.1 nPa<br><br>IMF : 8.4
        nT<br>IMF Orientation : 0.7 nT North<br><br>Conditions for
        the last 24 hours : <br>Solar activity was low. The
        geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Stratwarm Alert
        exists Friday.<br><br>Forecast for the next 24 hours
        :<br>Solar activity will be low to moderate. The geomagnetic
        field will be quiet to unsettled.<br><br>Solar Activity
        Forecast :<br>Solar activity is expected to be low to
        moderate for the next three days. Region 9845 is a
        possible source for isolated M-class
        flares.<br><br>Geomagnetic activity forecast :<br>Geomagnetic field activity
        is expected to be mainly quiet to unsettled, until
        the onset of high speed stream effects from a
        recurrent coronal hole begin to develop by day three of the
        forecast period. Isolated active conditions are
        anticipated thereafter.<br><br>Recent significant solar flare
        activity :<br>None
      Your message has been successfully submitted and would be delivered to recipients shortly.