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Re: Review of Dr. Gray's 2002 forecast

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  • Pawnfart
    He notes the increadible SHIFT in the hurricane season this season, how it was busy and late in a record setting way. But then says NOTHING about it in his
    Message 1 of 702 , Dec 9, 2001
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      He notes the increadible SHIFT in the hurricane
      season this season, how it was busy and late in a record
      setting way. But then says NOTHING about it in his
      forecast. This is one of the things I predicted right here
      on NPR in APRIL on another Bush thread in the
      catagory Talk of the Nation--that the season would be
      shifted. Frankly, I posted it everywhere. Anyway, it's
      from the dams. I have MANY MANY THINGS to say about
      Dr. Gray, and I cannot possibly hit every issue in
      this series of posts. <br><br>I hope Dr. Gray stops
      saying that climate has nothing to do with CO2 emissions
      in newspaper interviews. I will tell you right here
      a direct, non-Gaia way that it does as a GHG, even
      as this is a small forcing compared to cirrus: The
      GHG impact is greatest on the surface, and will
      increase SSTs, which in turn increases specific
      conductivity of the oceans, and makes for greater ocean
      organizations of energies, and hence cyclonic behavior. Most of
      this impact is confounded by river changes. Humans
      have built 45,000 dams 15 meters or higher in the past
      100 years! <br><br>ENSO and 'canes. 'Canes don't like
      strong El Ninos. After our 500 year El Nino, there were
      several years in a row where state sized glaciers were
      peeling off Antarctica like the millions peeled from
      Hilderbrant's coffers to Cheney. This year there was only one
      berg of import and it was relatively small . . . which
      is a sign of El Nino coming, perhaps a big one, and
      hence lower cyclonic activity.
    • b1blancer_29501
      On Feb 28th, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field swung to a strong south-pointing orientation. That, coupled with an elevated solar wind speed and density,
      Message 702 of 702 , Mar 1, 2002
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        On Feb 28th, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field
        swung to a strong south-pointing orientation. That,
        coupled with an elevated solar wind speed and density,
        triggered a G-1 class geomagnetic storm. The result was
        some high latitude aurora. See this link for a
        photgraph of aurora observed over Quebec :
        <a href=http://www.spaceweather.com/aurora/images/01mar02/Moussette2.jpg target=new>http://www.spaceweather.com/aurora/images/01mar02/Moussette2.jpg</a> . As of right now, there are 3 sunspot regions,
        namely 9839, 9842, and 9845, that appear to be capable
        of producing M-class flares. Regions 9839 and 9842
        are close to rotating out of view over the western
        limb of the solar disk. Sunspot region 9845, however,
        is close to the sun's central meridian. A rather
        large coronal hole is also approaching the sun's
        central meridian, and coming into an Earth-pointing
        position. High speed colar wind gusts are likely around the
        first of next week.<br><br>The current solar and
        geomagnetic conditions are :<br><br>NOAA sunspot number :
        153<br>SFI : 188<br>A index : 10<br>K index : 1<br><br>Solar
        wind speed : 372.3 km/sec<br>Solar wind density : 4.4
        protons/cc<br>Solar wind pressure : 1.1 nPa<br><br>IMF : 8.4
        nT<br>IMF Orientation : 0.7 nT North<br><br>Conditions for
        the last 24 hours : <br>Solar activity was low. The
        geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Stratwarm Alert
        exists Friday.<br><br>Forecast for the next 24 hours
        :<br>Solar activity will be low to moderate. The geomagnetic
        field will be quiet to unsettled.<br><br>Solar Activity
        Forecast :<br>Solar activity is expected to be low to
        moderate for the next three days. Region 9845 is a
        possible source for isolated M-class
        flares.<br><br>Geomagnetic activity forecast :<br>Geomagnetic field activity
        is expected to be mainly quiet to unsettled, until
        the onset of high speed stream effects from a
        recurrent coronal hole begin to develop by day three of the
        forecast period. Isolated active conditions are
        anticipated thereafter.<br><br>Recent significant solar flare
        activity :<br>None
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