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Review of Dr. Gray's 2002 forecast

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  • Pawnfart
    http://typhoon.atmos.colostate.edu/forecasts/2002/fcst2002/ I am
    Message 1 of 702 , Dec 9, 2001
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      <a href=http://typhoon.atmos.colostate.edu/forecasts/2002/fcst2002/ target=new>http://typhoon.atmos.colostate.edu/forecasts/2002/fcst2002/</a> <br><br>I am about to go off on Dr. Gray, but not
      as bad as I have in the past. Last year, I wrote
      something to the effect that if I were King for a day I
      would have Gray shot--because of the number of lives it
      would saved from his lies. (And of course the response
      was if I were a King for a day I would order the
      contestants for Miss America into my chambers . . .).
      <br><br>There are lies, damn lies, and statistics. <br><br>Dr.
      Gray's whole vantage is correlative statistics. So it
      becomes very dangerous. My initial comments is there is a
      little for everyone. The cartoon, which incidently I
      agree with. The research is now sponsered by CSU, an
      Automobile Association (carbon clubber), and an Insurance
      Lobby. The insurance lobby wants people to be afraid for
      heavy hurricane activity, which is what Dr. Gray
      predicts. However, landfalling hasn't occurred. That's the
      rub. On increase of hurricane activity caused by
      CO2--there's no reasonable way -- meaningless. <br><br>On
      Africa. Last year he throw out his West Africa
      statistics. This year he attributes the problems with false
      reporting by the Africans! ROFLMAO. <br><br>The Africans
      built these HUGE hydro plants and its the lying
      Africans. BLAH. Surprised he didn't use the 'n' word.
    • b1blancer_29501
      On Feb 28th, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field swung to a strong south-pointing orientation. That, coupled with an elevated solar wind speed and density,
      Message 702 of 702 , Mar 1, 2002
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        On Feb 28th, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field
        swung to a strong south-pointing orientation. That,
        coupled with an elevated solar wind speed and density,
        triggered a G-1 class geomagnetic storm. The result was
        some high latitude aurora. See this link for a
        photgraph of aurora observed over Quebec :
        <a href=http://www.spaceweather.com/aurora/images/01mar02/Moussette2.jpg target=new>http://www.spaceweather.com/aurora/images/01mar02/Moussette2.jpg</a> . As of right now, there are 3 sunspot regions,
        namely 9839, 9842, and 9845, that appear to be capable
        of producing M-class flares. Regions 9839 and 9842
        are close to rotating out of view over the western
        limb of the solar disk. Sunspot region 9845, however,
        is close to the sun's central meridian. A rather
        large coronal hole is also approaching the sun's
        central meridian, and coming into an Earth-pointing
        position. High speed colar wind gusts are likely around the
        first of next week.<br><br>The current solar and
        geomagnetic conditions are :<br><br>NOAA sunspot number :
        153<br>SFI : 188<br>A index : 10<br>K index : 1<br><br>Solar
        wind speed : 372.3 km/sec<br>Solar wind density : 4.4
        protons/cc<br>Solar wind pressure : 1.1 nPa<br><br>IMF : 8.4
        nT<br>IMF Orientation : 0.7 nT North<br><br>Conditions for
        the last 24 hours : <br>Solar activity was low. The
        geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Stratwarm Alert
        exists Friday.<br><br>Forecast for the next 24 hours
        :<br>Solar activity will be low to moderate. The geomagnetic
        field will be quiet to unsettled.<br><br>Solar Activity
        Forecast :<br>Solar activity is expected to be low to
        moderate for the next three days. Region 9845 is a
        possible source for isolated M-class
        flares.<br><br>Geomagnetic activity forecast :<br>Geomagnetic field activity
        is expected to be mainly quiet to unsettled, until
        the onset of high speed stream effects from a
        recurrent coronal hole begin to develop by day three of the
        forecast period. Isolated active conditions are
        anticipated thereafter.<br><br>Recent significant solar flare
        activity :<br>None
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