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Solar Activity Report for 12/4/01

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  • b1blancer_29501
    M-class solar flares continue to be produced, and two new sunspot groups are getting into the act. 9715, which produced a long string of M-class flares a few
    Message 1 of 702 , Dec 4, 2001
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      M-class solar flares continue to be produced, and
      two new sunspot groups are getting into the act.
      9715, which produced a long string of M-class flares a
      few days ago, appears to be decaying and is
      approaching the western limb of the solar disk. However,
      sunspot groups 9717 and 9718 have developed magnetic
      field which make them look like a likely source for
      more M-class flares. The Earth's magnetosphere is
      feeling the effects of some coronal hole induced solar
      wind gusts. The solar wind speed and density are
      elevated, and the K index is in the unsettled category this
      evening.<br><br>The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are
      :<br><br>NOAA sunspot number : 214<br>SFI : 233<br>A index :
      7<br>K index : 3<br><br>Solar wind speed : 453.8
      km/sec<br>Solar wind density : 5.1 protons/cc<br>Solar wind
      pressure : 1.8 nPa<br><br>IMF : 7.5 nT<br>IMF Orientation
      : 3.4 nT North<br><br>Conditions for the last 24
      hours :<br>Solar activity was low. The geomagnetic
      field was quiet to unsettled.<br><br>Forecast for the
      next 24 hours :<br>Solar activity will be low to
      moderate. The geomagnetic field will be quiet to
      unsettled.<br><br>Solar activity forecast :<br>Solar activity is expected
      to be low to moderate. There is a chance for a major
      flare from Region 9718.<br><br>Geomagnetic activity
      forecast :<br>The geomagnetic field is expected to be
      quiet to unsettled<br><br>Recent significant solar
      flare activity :<br>04-Dec-2001 0546Z M1.3
      <br>04-Dec-2001 0045Z M1.0 <br>02-Dec-2001 2206Z M2.0
      <br>02-Dec-2001 1500Z M1.3
    • b1blancer_29501
      On Feb 28th, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field swung to a strong south-pointing orientation. That, coupled with an elevated solar wind speed and density,
      Message 702 of 702 , Mar 1 9:47 PM
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        On Feb 28th, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field
        swung to a strong south-pointing orientation. That,
        coupled with an elevated solar wind speed and density,
        triggered a G-1 class geomagnetic storm. The result was
        some high latitude aurora. See this link for a
        photgraph of aurora observed over Quebec :
        <a href=http://www.spaceweather.com/aurora/images/01mar02/Moussette2.jpg target=new>http://www.spaceweather.com/aurora/images/01mar02/Moussette2.jpg</a> . As of right now, there are 3 sunspot regions,
        namely 9839, 9842, and 9845, that appear to be capable
        of producing M-class flares. Regions 9839 and 9842
        are close to rotating out of view over the western
        limb of the solar disk. Sunspot region 9845, however,
        is close to the sun's central meridian. A rather
        large coronal hole is also approaching the sun's
        central meridian, and coming into an Earth-pointing
        position. High speed colar wind gusts are likely around the
        first of next week.<br><br>The current solar and
        geomagnetic conditions are :<br><br>NOAA sunspot number :
        153<br>SFI : 188<br>A index : 10<br>K index : 1<br><br>Solar
        wind speed : 372.3 km/sec<br>Solar wind density : 4.4
        protons/cc<br>Solar wind pressure : 1.1 nPa<br><br>IMF : 8.4
        nT<br>IMF Orientation : 0.7 nT North<br><br>Conditions for
        the last 24 hours : <br>Solar activity was low. The
        geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Stratwarm Alert
        exists Friday.<br><br>Forecast for the next 24 hours
        :<br>Solar activity will be low to moderate. The geomagnetic
        field will be quiet to unsettled.<br><br>Solar Activity
        Forecast :<br>Solar activity is expected to be low to
        moderate for the next three days. Region 9845 is a
        possible source for isolated M-class
        flares.<br><br>Geomagnetic activity forecast :<br>Geomagnetic field activity
        is expected to be mainly quiet to unsettled, until
        the onset of high speed stream effects from a
        recurrent coronal hole begin to develop by day three of the
        forecast period. Isolated active conditions are
        anticipated thereafter.<br><br>Recent significant solar flare
        activity :<br>None
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