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Solar Activity Report for 12/2/01

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  • b1blancer_29501
    The past 3 days have been extremely active as far as solar activity, with 11 M-class flares being produced. The sun is peppered with several sunspot groups.
    Message 1 of 702 , Dec 2, 2001
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      The past 3 days have been extremely active as far
      as solar activity, with 11 M-class flares being
      produced. The sun is peppered with several sunspot groups.
      Most of the activity, however, has been coming from
      sunspot group 9715. It has grown rapidly, and covers an
      area equal to 6 times that of Earth's surface. It has
      a complex, twisted magnetic field, and is capable
      of producing a major X-class flare at any time. A
      coronal hole is crossing the sun's central meridian and
      is an Earth-pointing position. It could send some
      high-speed solar wind gusts towards Earth in the next day or
      two.<br><br>The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are
      :<br><br>NOAA sunspot number : 271<br>SFI : 245<br>A index :
      5<br>K index : 2<br><br>Solar wind speed : 391.8
      km/sec<br>Solar wind density : 6.5 proton/cc<br>Solar wind
      pressure : 1.5 nPa<br><br>IMF : 10.5 nT<br>IMF Orientation
      : 10.1 nT North<br><br>Conditions for the next 24
      hours :<br>Solar activity was moderate. The geomagnetic
      field was quiet to unsettled.<br><br>Forecast for the
      next 24 hours :<br>Solar activity will be moderate to
      high. The geomagnetic field will be quiet to
      unsettled.<br><br>Solar activity forecast :<br>Solar activity is expected
      to be mostly moderate during the period with
      isolated M-class flares likely. There will also be a
      chance for an isolated major flare during the period
      from Region 9715.<br><br>Geomagnetic activity forecast
      :<br>Quiet to unsettled levels are expected. However, there
      will be a chance for active periods during 04 - 05
      December due to coronal hole effects. There will be a
      slight chance for a proton flare from Region
      9715<br><br>Recent significant solar flare activity :<br>02-Dec-2001
      2206Z M2.0 <br>02-Dec-2001 1500Z M1.3 <br>01-Dec-2001
      1749Z M1.8 <br>01-Dec-2001 1731Z M1.5 <br>01-Dec-2001
      1656Z M2.9 <br>01-Dec-2001 1555Z M4.8 <br>01-Dec-2001
      1445Z M1.2 <br>01-Dec-2001 0651Z M2.2 <br>30-Nov-2001
      2001Z M2.9 <br>30-Nov-2001 1418Z M1.5 <br>30-Nov-2001
      0106Z M3.5
    • b1blancer_29501
      On Feb 28th, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field swung to a strong south-pointing orientation. That, coupled with an elevated solar wind speed and density,
      Message 702 of 702 , Mar 1, 2002
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        On Feb 28th, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field
        swung to a strong south-pointing orientation. That,
        coupled with an elevated solar wind speed and density,
        triggered a G-1 class geomagnetic storm. The result was
        some high latitude aurora. See this link for a
        photgraph of aurora observed over Quebec :
        <a href=http://www.spaceweather.com/aurora/images/01mar02/Moussette2.jpg target=new>http://www.spaceweather.com/aurora/images/01mar02/Moussette2.jpg</a> . As of right now, there are 3 sunspot regions,
        namely 9839, 9842, and 9845, that appear to be capable
        of producing M-class flares. Regions 9839 and 9842
        are close to rotating out of view over the western
        limb of the solar disk. Sunspot region 9845, however,
        is close to the sun's central meridian. A rather
        large coronal hole is also approaching the sun's
        central meridian, and coming into an Earth-pointing
        position. High speed colar wind gusts are likely around the
        first of next week.<br><br>The current solar and
        geomagnetic conditions are :<br><br>NOAA sunspot number :
        153<br>SFI : 188<br>A index : 10<br>K index : 1<br><br>Solar
        wind speed : 372.3 km/sec<br>Solar wind density : 4.4
        protons/cc<br>Solar wind pressure : 1.1 nPa<br><br>IMF : 8.4
        nT<br>IMF Orientation : 0.7 nT North<br><br>Conditions for
        the last 24 hours : <br>Solar activity was low. The
        geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Stratwarm Alert
        exists Friday.<br><br>Forecast for the next 24 hours
        :<br>Solar activity will be low to moderate. The geomagnetic
        field will be quiet to unsettled.<br><br>Solar Activity
        Forecast :<br>Solar activity is expected to be low to
        moderate for the next three days. Region 9845 is a
        possible source for isolated M-class
        flares.<br><br>Geomagnetic activity forecast :<br>Geomagnetic field activity
        is expected to be mainly quiet to unsettled, until
        the onset of high speed stream effects from a
        recurrent coronal hole begin to develop by day three of the
        forecast period. Isolated active conditions are
        anticipated thereafter.<br><br>Recent significant solar flare
        activity :<br>None
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