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Can Lindzen think out of the box?

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  • Pawnfart
    I have been thinking about Lindzen s position. There are some people who you know lie--because you just saw their mouth open. Others don t lie, and
    Message 1 of 702 , Dec 2, 2001
      I have been thinking about Lindzen's position.
      There are some <br>people who you know lie--because you
      just saw their mouth open. Others <br>don't lie, and
      some are really really good liars, and some good liars
      <br>aren't telling bad lies but telling lies because of the
      position they are <br>in--as a sometimes subtile way of
      conveying truth. That's what I am not <br>sure about
      Lindzen--whether he's just a good liar or if he's the latter.
      <br>For starters, you can trust his data. As you mention,
      it gets a good <br>going over--and probably wasn't
      even done by him--his PhD candidates or <br>maybe
      people from Exxon, from a Republican Senator's office
      help, or <br>whatever. Once the data was in, then comes
      the spin. He had to select <br>it, so he goes for La
      Nina in trop E. Pac. Now, that is where I would
      <br>predict the strongest counter induction, but I suspect
      that in looking at <br>all of the data, he just
      selected it because the scattering of data <br>showed the
      inverse relation between cloud wieghted SSTs and cirrus.
      <br>Certainly he noticed El Nino turned it around, and I
      suspect he saw some <br>of the persistant wind going west
      and warm anomalies, and east and cold <br>anomalies,
      like we have on our home page of our Methane Hydrate
      Club, so <br>the omission of direction of persistant
      current and wind (another way of <br>saying El Nino-La
      Nina changes) was purpuseful. Then he goes on to make
      <br>his phony calculations. Now, knowing that he's a
      skeptic, he's selling <br>this to fossil fuel politicians.
      But see, it's not so simple. Fossil <br>fuel
      interests basically want everyone to think that warming is
      <br>overstated. This means that he really can't express a new
      concept to the <br>debate, like direction of current or
      wind mattering. It has to be SSTs <br>and CO2 as a
      GHG. He's really in a box, Lindzen, that is.
      <br><br>Here's the deeper reason I think Lindzen is in my camp.
      He uses the word <br>iris. That word was completely
      unacceptible to his sponsers, who quickly <br>renamed what he
      found a "heat vent". Iris, OTOH, implies a BIOLOGICAL
      <br>intelligence. And this iris actually to me is the crux of what
      the <br>future of climate debate is going to be out,
      is whether the biology is <br>modulating okay or
      not. The hypo is if you put your hand in a cold
      <br>bucket of ice water, and then take it out it glows red
      and warms. As it <br>storms here in Northern
      California, I think that is what is going on with <br>a
      bi-stabile shift--and the storms that are tracking in one
      after another <br>after three years of drought. See,
      the issue isn't going to be so much <br>if the hand
      is really glowing hot but if the hand DIES. Then
      there's <br>amputation and maybe death.<br><br>Lindzen's
      politics are from hell. And almost every interview that is
      all <br>you hear him doing is complaining about them.
      That's why I think he's <br>hiding the ball on the
      direction of current, but at the same time talks <br>about
      "no theory on cirrus." For him, truth isn't the
      object--it's <br>surviving in the world he is in. That also
      means he is forced to take a <br>side, much like a
      lawyer has to represent a client, even if he doesn't
      <br>like any of the clients involved.
    • b1blancer_29501
      On Feb 28th, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field swung to a strong south-pointing orientation. That, coupled with an elevated solar wind speed and density,
      Message 702 of 702 , Mar 1, 2002
        On Feb 28th, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field
        swung to a strong south-pointing orientation. That,
        coupled with an elevated solar wind speed and density,
        triggered a G-1 class geomagnetic storm. The result was
        some high latitude aurora. See this link for a
        photgraph of aurora observed over Quebec :
        <a href=http://www.spaceweather.com/aurora/images/01mar02/Moussette2.jpg target=new>http://www.spaceweather.com/aurora/images/01mar02/Moussette2.jpg</a> . As of right now, there are 3 sunspot regions,
        namely 9839, 9842, and 9845, that appear to be capable
        of producing M-class flares. Regions 9839 and 9842
        are close to rotating out of view over the western
        limb of the solar disk. Sunspot region 9845, however,
        is close to the sun's central meridian. A rather
        large coronal hole is also approaching the sun's
        central meridian, and coming into an Earth-pointing
        position. High speed colar wind gusts are likely around the
        first of next week.<br><br>The current solar and
        geomagnetic conditions are :<br><br>NOAA sunspot number :
        153<br>SFI : 188<br>A index : 10<br>K index : 1<br><br>Solar
        wind speed : 372.3 km/sec<br>Solar wind density : 4.4
        protons/cc<br>Solar wind pressure : 1.1 nPa<br><br>IMF : 8.4
        nT<br>IMF Orientation : 0.7 nT North<br><br>Conditions for
        the last 24 hours : <br>Solar activity was low. The
        geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Stratwarm Alert
        exists Friday.<br><br>Forecast for the next 24 hours
        :<br>Solar activity will be low to moderate. The geomagnetic
        field will be quiet to unsettled.<br><br>Solar Activity
        Forecast :<br>Solar activity is expected to be low to
        moderate for the next three days. Region 9845 is a
        possible source for isolated M-class
        flares.<br><br>Geomagnetic activity forecast :<br>Geomagnetic field activity
        is expected to be mainly quiet to unsettled, until
        the onset of high speed stream effects from a
        recurrent coronal hole begin to develop by day three of the
        forecast period. Isolated active conditions are
        anticipated thereafter.<br><br>Recent significant solar flare
        activity :<br>None
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