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Solar Activity Report for 11/4/01

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  • b1blancer_29501
    ** S-3 Solar Radiation Storm In Progress ** ** Aurora Watch In Effect ** A powerful X-1 flare erupted from active sunspot group 9684 at 1620 UT
    Message 1 of 702 , Nov 4, 2001
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      ** S-3 Solar Radiation Storm In Progress **<br>**
      Aurora Watch In Effect **<br><br>A powerful X-1 flare
      erupted from active sunspot group 9684 at 1620 UT today.
      A strong (S-3) solar radiation storm soon followed,
      and it is still in progress now. The event also
      launched a full-halo CME towards Earth. It is expected to
      arrive sometime Tuesday, and major geomagnetic storm
      conditions are a distinct possibility. See this link for a
      short movie of the CME :
      <a href=http://www.spaceweather.com/images2001/04nov01/cme_c3_big.gif target=new>http://www.spaceweather.com/images2001/04nov01/cme_c3_big.gif</a> . The thousands of bright speckles on the picture
      are caused by protons from the flare striking the CCD
      coronagraph camera of the SOHO satellite. The coming
      geomagnetic storm could be augmented by the effects of a
      small coronal hole that is now crossing the sun's
      central meridian. Meanwhile, sunspot groups 9682, 9684,
      and 9687 all posess a complex, twisted magnetic
      field, and could be a source for more major
      flares.<br><br>The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are
      :<br><br>NOAA sunspot number : 186<br>SFI : 227<br>A index :
      8<br>K index : 0<br><br>Solar wind speed : 312.8
      km/sec<br>Solar wind density : 16.0 protons/cc<br>Solar wind
      pressure : 2.4 nPa<br><br>IMF : 10.1 nT <br>IMF
      Orientation : 7.1 nT North <br><br>Conditions for the last 24
      hours :<br>Solar activity was high. The geomagnetic
      field was quiet to unsettled. A major flare occurred at
      1620UTC on 04 Nov. A satellite proton event began at
      1705UTC on 04 Nov. A polar cap absorption event is in
      progress<br><br>Forecast for the next 24 hours :<br>Solar activity will be
      moderate to high. The geomagnetic field will be unsettled.
      A proton event is expected to
      continue.<br><br>Solar activity forecast :<br>Solar activity is expected
      to be moderate to high. M-class events are likely to
      occur during the next three days. There is a fair
      chance for an additional major flare from Region 9684,
      especially if new magnetic flux continues to emerge. Regions
      9682 and 9687 also continue to pose a slight threat
      for major flare activity.<br><br>Geomagnetic activity
      forecast :<br>The geomagnetic field is expected to be
      unsettled to slightly active tomorrow. Major storm
      conditions are likely to follow the arrival of a shock from
      today's solar event, sometime early on the 2nd day (06
      November). The disturbance is expected to last for about 24
      hours, and a decrease to mostly active conditions should
      occur on the third day. Today's greater than 100 MeV
      proton event is expected to continue for the next 12
      hours. The greater than 10 MeV proton event should
      continue tomorrow, and is likely to get an enhancement of
      flux levels on the second day with the arrival of the
      interplanetary shock from today's solar event<br><br>Recent
      significant solar flare activity :<br>04-Nov-2001 1620Z X1.0
    • b1blancer_29501
      On Feb 28th, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field swung to a strong south-pointing orientation. That, coupled with an elevated solar wind speed and density,
      Message 702 of 702 , Mar 1, 2002
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        On Feb 28th, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field
        swung to a strong south-pointing orientation. That,
        coupled with an elevated solar wind speed and density,
        triggered a G-1 class geomagnetic storm. The result was
        some high latitude aurora. See this link for a
        photgraph of aurora observed over Quebec :
        <a href=http://www.spaceweather.com/aurora/images/01mar02/Moussette2.jpg target=new>http://www.spaceweather.com/aurora/images/01mar02/Moussette2.jpg</a> . As of right now, there are 3 sunspot regions,
        namely 9839, 9842, and 9845, that appear to be capable
        of producing M-class flares. Regions 9839 and 9842
        are close to rotating out of view over the western
        limb of the solar disk. Sunspot region 9845, however,
        is close to the sun's central meridian. A rather
        large coronal hole is also approaching the sun's
        central meridian, and coming into an Earth-pointing
        position. High speed colar wind gusts are likely around the
        first of next week.<br><br>The current solar and
        geomagnetic conditions are :<br><br>NOAA sunspot number :
        153<br>SFI : 188<br>A index : 10<br>K index : 1<br><br>Solar
        wind speed : 372.3 km/sec<br>Solar wind density : 4.4
        protons/cc<br>Solar wind pressure : 1.1 nPa<br><br>IMF : 8.4
        nT<br>IMF Orientation : 0.7 nT North<br><br>Conditions for
        the last 24 hours : <br>Solar activity was low. The
        geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Stratwarm Alert
        exists Friday.<br><br>Forecast for the next 24 hours
        :<br>Solar activity will be low to moderate. The geomagnetic
        field will be quiet to unsettled.<br><br>Solar Activity
        Forecast :<br>Solar activity is expected to be low to
        moderate for the next three days. Region 9845 is a
        possible source for isolated M-class
        flares.<br><br>Geomagnetic activity forecast :<br>Geomagnetic field activity
        is expected to be mainly quiet to unsettled, until
        the onset of high speed stream effects from a
        recurrent coronal hole begin to develop by day three of the
        forecast period. Isolated active conditions are
        anticipated thereafter.<br><br>Recent significant solar flare
        activity :<br>None
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