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Re: Michelle

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  • Pawnfart
    930 West Coast time. Looks like the eye wall reformed and we are seeing some nightly reintensification, which I think is the electrical part of the
    Message 1 of 702 , Nov 3, 2001
      930 West Coast time.<br><br>Looks like the eye
      wall reformed and we are seeing some nightly
      reintensification, which I think is the electrical part of the
      oceans organizing the storm over the flaring part, which
      is not organized, occurring during the day. I saw
      the NNE or NE turn but am more impressed by the loss
      of west side convection. OTOH, recon found a HP area
      to the EAST of Michelle, meaning it will not take
      any sharp E turn. <br><br>South Florida is going to
      get hit--after Michelle CREAMS people in high
      mountain areas of Cuba. Thousands are going to die unless
      the Cuban government moves everyone in Western Cuba
      to the East. I understand due to the military
      organization of the country, this may happen!<br><br>Also, I
      would point out that HP area is a function of cirrus
      REDUCTION in the E. Carribean, which would be enhanced out
      of seasonal character by Orinoco flow delayed by the
      dams there. The E. Carribean has a dominate EAST
      directed surface currents from the gyre there.
    • b1blancer_29501
      On Feb 28th, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field swung to a strong south-pointing orientation. That, coupled with an elevated solar wind speed and density,
      Message 702 of 702 , Mar 1, 2002
        On Feb 28th, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field
        swung to a strong south-pointing orientation. That,
        coupled with an elevated solar wind speed and density,
        triggered a G-1 class geomagnetic storm. The result was
        some high latitude aurora. See this link for a
        photgraph of aurora observed over Quebec :
        <a href=http://www.spaceweather.com/aurora/images/01mar02/Moussette2.jpg target=new>http://www.spaceweather.com/aurora/images/01mar02/Moussette2.jpg</a> . As of right now, there are 3 sunspot regions,
        namely 9839, 9842, and 9845, that appear to be capable
        of producing M-class flares. Regions 9839 and 9842
        are close to rotating out of view over the western
        limb of the solar disk. Sunspot region 9845, however,
        is close to the sun's central meridian. A rather
        large coronal hole is also approaching the sun's
        central meridian, and coming into an Earth-pointing
        position. High speed colar wind gusts are likely around the
        first of next week.<br><br>The current solar and
        geomagnetic conditions are :<br><br>NOAA sunspot number :
        153<br>SFI : 188<br>A index : 10<br>K index : 1<br><br>Solar
        wind speed : 372.3 km/sec<br>Solar wind density : 4.4
        protons/cc<br>Solar wind pressure : 1.1 nPa<br><br>IMF : 8.4
        nT<br>IMF Orientation : 0.7 nT North<br><br>Conditions for
        the last 24 hours : <br>Solar activity was low. The
        geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Stratwarm Alert
        exists Friday.<br><br>Forecast for the next 24 hours
        :<br>Solar activity will be low to moderate. The geomagnetic
        field will be quiet to unsettled.<br><br>Solar Activity
        Forecast :<br>Solar activity is expected to be low to
        moderate for the next three days. Region 9845 is a
        possible source for isolated M-class
        flares.<br><br>Geomagnetic activity forecast :<br>Geomagnetic field activity
        is expected to be mainly quiet to unsettled, until
        the onset of high speed stream effects from a
        recurrent coronal hole begin to develop by day three of the
        forecast period. Isolated active conditions are
        anticipated thereafter.<br><br>Recent significant solar flare
        activity :<br>None
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