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Solar Activity Report for 11/1/01

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  • b1blancer_29501
    M-class flares have been popping up like popcorn for the last couple of days, with 9 flares being produced since yesterday alone. Sunspot groups 9678 and 9682
    Message 1 of 702 , Nov 1, 2001
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      M-class flares have been popping up like popcorn
      for the last couple of days, with 9 flares being
      produced since yesterday alone. Sunspot groups 9678 and
      9682 are the main contributors to the action. 9682
      covers an area equal to 7 times the Earth's surface and
      is a threat for a major X-class flare. On 10/31 the
      IMF swung sharply south, which weakened our magnetic
      defences against solar wind gusts. The result was a G-1
      geomagnetic storm, and aurora were spotted and photographed
      in Canada Halloween night.<br><br>The current solar
      and geomagnetic conditions are :<br><br>NOAA sunspot
      number : 157<br>SFI : 236<br>A index : 22<br>K index :
      2<br><br>Solar wind speed : 322.6 km/sec<br>Solar wind density :
      5.9 protons/cc<br>Solar wind pressure : 0.7
      nPa<br><br>IMF : 6.8 nT<br>IMF Orientation : 0.9 nT
      North<br><br>Conditions for the last 24 hours :<br>Solar activity was
      high. The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm
      levels.<br><br>Forecast for the next 24 hours :<br>Solar activity will be
      moderate to high. The geomagnetic field will be
      unsettled.<br><br>Solar activity forecast :<br>Solar activity is expected
      to be moderate to high. M-class events should
      continue, with regions 9687 and 9682 being the main
      contributors to activity. There continues to be a chance for
      an isolated major flare event or proton producing
      event during the next three days.<br><br>Geomagnetic
      activity forecast :<br>The geomagnetic field is expected
      to be mostly unsettled for the next three
      days<br><br>Recent significant solar flare activity :<br>01-Nov-2001
      1958Z M1.5 <br>01-Nov-2001 1503Z M1.7 <br>01-Nov-2001
      1402Z M1.4 <br>01-Nov-2001 1220Z M3.0 <br>01-Nov-2001
      1210Z M3.3 <br>01-Nov-2001 0653Z M1.3 <br>31-Oct-2001
      2142Z M1.0 <br>31-Oct-2001 1051Z M1.5 <br>31-Oct-2001
      0809Z M3.2
    • b1blancer_29501
      On Feb 28th, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field swung to a strong south-pointing orientation. That, coupled with an elevated solar wind speed and density,
      Message 702 of 702 , Mar 1, 2002
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        On Feb 28th, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field
        swung to a strong south-pointing orientation. That,
        coupled with an elevated solar wind speed and density,
        triggered a G-1 class geomagnetic storm. The result was
        some high latitude aurora. See this link for a
        photgraph of aurora observed over Quebec :
        <a href=http://www.spaceweather.com/aurora/images/01mar02/Moussette2.jpg target=new>http://www.spaceweather.com/aurora/images/01mar02/Moussette2.jpg</a> . As of right now, there are 3 sunspot regions,
        namely 9839, 9842, and 9845, that appear to be capable
        of producing M-class flares. Regions 9839 and 9842
        are close to rotating out of view over the western
        limb of the solar disk. Sunspot region 9845, however,
        is close to the sun's central meridian. A rather
        large coronal hole is also approaching the sun's
        central meridian, and coming into an Earth-pointing
        position. High speed colar wind gusts are likely around the
        first of next week.<br><br>The current solar and
        geomagnetic conditions are :<br><br>NOAA sunspot number :
        153<br>SFI : 188<br>A index : 10<br>K index : 1<br><br>Solar
        wind speed : 372.3 km/sec<br>Solar wind density : 4.4
        protons/cc<br>Solar wind pressure : 1.1 nPa<br><br>IMF : 8.4
        nT<br>IMF Orientation : 0.7 nT North<br><br>Conditions for
        the last 24 hours : <br>Solar activity was low. The
        geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Stratwarm Alert
        exists Friday.<br><br>Forecast for the next 24 hours
        :<br>Solar activity will be low to moderate. The geomagnetic
        field will be quiet to unsettled.<br><br>Solar Activity
        Forecast :<br>Solar activity is expected to be low to
        moderate for the next three days. Region 9845 is a
        possible source for isolated M-class
        flares.<br><br>Geomagnetic activity forecast :<br>Geomagnetic field activity
        is expected to be mainly quiet to unsettled, until
        the onset of high speed stream effects from a
        recurrent coronal hole begin to develop by day three of the
        forecast period. Isolated active conditions are
        anticipated thereafter.<br><br>Recent significant solar flare
        activity :<br>None
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