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  • Pawnfart
    Do we have another Mitch? IMHO, yes. ENSO conditions
    Message 1 of 702 , Nov 1, 2001
      Do we have another Mitch? IMHO, yes.<br><br>ENSO
      conditions<br><br><a href=http://www.vision.net.au/~daly/elnino.htm target=new>http://www.vision.net.au/~daly/elnino.htm</a><br>Check out Daly's site for daily wind patterns of
      ENSO--note that La Nina winds are occurring now and
      historically La Nina equates to more hurricane activity. This
      is another clue about flaring patterns as well, as
      last week when we had El Nino winds there was some
      pretty good flaring activity.<br><br>Conditions continue
      to look VERY dangerous, BTW, w/ Michelle IMHO, for
      Central America. Belize already lost most of its banana
      crop w/ Iris, and if this storm grows and continues to
      curve west eventually south like Mitch--we are going to
      see thousands dead and tens of billions in damage for
      these poor countries there. Now why wouldn't we tell
      them that dams on the Orinoco would hurt them up so
      bad, even after Mitch had given it to them? Could it
      be to keep the storms down there? I can't believe
      our best scientists aren't seeing this.<br><br>This
      time of year SSTs are starting to get too cold in the
      GOM to have a really big storm do much of anything
      before it gets sheared apart--Gabrielle was near the end
      of the GOM season, really. But w/ delayed sed and
      flow down the Orinoco, a later storm is insulated in
      the W. Carribean where it doesn't face the wave
      forward speeds moving from Cape Verde--and you get these
      bombs. <br><br>Meanwhile, much of the SE continues to
      suffer from drought--and I see no reason why after a
      Central American landfall this storm won't get carried
      east real fast extra tropical like Mitch. I may be
      wrong, but the longer this stays stationary and the
      bigger it gets, the more likely it will curve west
      despite ambiant wind conditions . . .
    • b1blancer_29501
      On Feb 28th, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field swung to a strong south-pointing orientation. That, coupled with an elevated solar wind speed and density,
      Message 702 of 702 , Mar 1, 2002
        On Feb 28th, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field
        swung to a strong south-pointing orientation. That,
        coupled with an elevated solar wind speed and density,
        triggered a G-1 class geomagnetic storm. The result was
        some high latitude aurora. See this link for a
        photgraph of aurora observed over Quebec :
        <a href=http://www.spaceweather.com/aurora/images/01mar02/Moussette2.jpg target=new>http://www.spaceweather.com/aurora/images/01mar02/Moussette2.jpg</a> . As of right now, there are 3 sunspot regions,
        namely 9839, 9842, and 9845, that appear to be capable
        of producing M-class flares. Regions 9839 and 9842
        are close to rotating out of view over the western
        limb of the solar disk. Sunspot region 9845, however,
        is close to the sun's central meridian. A rather
        large coronal hole is also approaching the sun's
        central meridian, and coming into an Earth-pointing
        position. High speed colar wind gusts are likely around the
        first of next week.<br><br>The current solar and
        geomagnetic conditions are :<br><br>NOAA sunspot number :
        153<br>SFI : 188<br>A index : 10<br>K index : 1<br><br>Solar
        wind speed : 372.3 km/sec<br>Solar wind density : 4.4
        protons/cc<br>Solar wind pressure : 1.1 nPa<br><br>IMF : 8.4
        nT<br>IMF Orientation : 0.7 nT North<br><br>Conditions for
        the last 24 hours : <br>Solar activity was low. The
        geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Stratwarm Alert
        exists Friday.<br><br>Forecast for the next 24 hours
        :<br>Solar activity will be low to moderate. The geomagnetic
        field will be quiet to unsettled.<br><br>Solar Activity
        Forecast :<br>Solar activity is expected to be low to
        moderate for the next three days. Region 9845 is a
        possible source for isolated M-class
        flares.<br><br>Geomagnetic activity forecast :<br>Geomagnetic field activity
        is expected to be mainly quiet to unsettled, until
        the onset of high speed stream effects from a
        recurrent coronal hole begin to develop by day three of the
        forecast period. Isolated active conditions are
        anticipated thereafter.<br><br>Recent significant solar flare
        activity :<br>None
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