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Solar Activity Report for 10/18/01

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  • b1blancer_29501
    Sunspot group 9661 lived up to its advertising and fired off a major X1.6 class flare early today. See this link for a short film of the flare as captured
    Message 1 of 702 , Oct 18, 2001
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      Sunspot group 9661 lived up to its advertising
      and fired off a major X1.6 class flare early today.
      See this link for a short film of the flare as
      captured through a hydrogen-alpha filter.
      <a href=http://www.spaceweather.com/images2001/19oct01/flare_halpha_bif.gif target=new>http://www.spaceweather.com/images2001/19oct01/flare_halpha_bif.gif</a> So far there's no word of an associated CME, but
      stay tuned. There should be more details available
      tomorrow. A coronal hole could be forming near the center
      of the solar disk. <br><br>The current solar and
      geomagnetic conditions are :<br><br>NOAA sunspot number :
      182<br>SFI : 229<br>A index : 6<br>K index : 0<br><br>Solar
      wind speed : 303.5 km/sec<br>Solar wind density : 2.3
      protons/cc<br>Solar wind pressure : 0.5 nPa<br><br>IMF : 6.1
      nT<br>IMF Orientation : 4.6 nT North<br><br>Conditions for
      the last 24 hours :<br>Solar activity was high. The
      geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. A major flare
      occurred at 0105 UTC on 19 Oct.<br><br>Forecast for the
      next 24 hours :<br>Solar activity will be moderate to
      high. The geomagnetic field will be quiet to
      unsettled.<br><br>Solar activity forecast :<br>Solar activity is expected
      to be at low to moderate levels. There are several
      regions on the disk that are capable of producing M-class
      or isolated major flares, the most noteworthy being
      Region 9661.<br><br>Geomagnetic activity forecast
      :<br>The geomagnetic field is expected to remain at quiet
      to unsettled levels through forecast period, barring
      the occurrence of an earth-directed CME. High
      latitudes may experience isolated periods of active
      conditions during days one and two<br><br>Recent significant
      solar flare activity :<br>19-Oct-2001 0105Z X1.6
      <br>17-Oct-2001 1123Z M1.1
    • b1blancer_29501
      On Feb 28th, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field swung to a strong south-pointing orientation. That, coupled with an elevated solar wind speed and density,
      Message 702 of 702 , Mar 1, 2002
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        On Feb 28th, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field
        swung to a strong south-pointing orientation. That,
        coupled with an elevated solar wind speed and density,
        triggered a G-1 class geomagnetic storm. The result was
        some high latitude aurora. See this link for a
        photgraph of aurora observed over Quebec :
        <a href=http://www.spaceweather.com/aurora/images/01mar02/Moussette2.jpg target=new>http://www.spaceweather.com/aurora/images/01mar02/Moussette2.jpg</a> . As of right now, there are 3 sunspot regions,
        namely 9839, 9842, and 9845, that appear to be capable
        of producing M-class flares. Regions 9839 and 9842
        are close to rotating out of view over the western
        limb of the solar disk. Sunspot region 9845, however,
        is close to the sun's central meridian. A rather
        large coronal hole is also approaching the sun's
        central meridian, and coming into an Earth-pointing
        position. High speed colar wind gusts are likely around the
        first of next week.<br><br>The current solar and
        geomagnetic conditions are :<br><br>NOAA sunspot number :
        153<br>SFI : 188<br>A index : 10<br>K index : 1<br><br>Solar
        wind speed : 372.3 km/sec<br>Solar wind density : 4.4
        protons/cc<br>Solar wind pressure : 1.1 nPa<br><br>IMF : 8.4
        nT<br>IMF Orientation : 0.7 nT North<br><br>Conditions for
        the last 24 hours : <br>Solar activity was low. The
        geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Stratwarm Alert
        exists Friday.<br><br>Forecast for the next 24 hours
        :<br>Solar activity will be low to moderate. The geomagnetic
        field will be quiet to unsettled.<br><br>Solar Activity
        Forecast :<br>Solar activity is expected to be low to
        moderate for the next three days. Region 9845 is a
        possible source for isolated M-class
        flares.<br><br>Geomagnetic activity forecast :<br>Geomagnetic field activity
        is expected to be mainly quiet to unsettled, until
        the onset of high speed stream effects from a
        recurrent coronal hole begin to develop by day three of the
        forecast period. Isolated active conditions are
        anticipated thereafter.<br><br>Recent significant solar flare
        activity :<br>None
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