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Re: Solar Activity Report for 10/16/01

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  • Pawnfart
    Here are two graphs that include surface and air readings:
    Message 1 of 702 , Oct 18, 2001
      Here are two graphs that include surface and air
      <br><br><a href=http://members.tripod.lycos.nl/ErrenWijlens/co2/templines.gif target=new>http://members.tripod.lycos.nl/ErrenWijlens/co2/templines.gif</a><br><br><a href=http://members.tripod.lycos.nl/ErrenWijlens/co2/tempdots.gif target=new>http://members.tripod.lycos.nl/ErrenWijlens/co2/tempdots.gif</a> <br><br>What you can see from these graphs is
      that the data is *very noisy* on a year to year basis.
      To me this is a huge clue about the modulation
      because it always comes back to very small changes in the
      averages--your law of large numbers playing into it. Therefore,
      all better sat readings show is greater detail in the
      chaotic aspect of "weather", rather then the modulated
      aspect of climate which may experiance change.
      <br><br>Many of the chaos past, uncertain future, fossil fuel
      proponants will look at the El Nino year of 1998 and take
      that time out as argue there has been no warming
      recently. Those who want to "throw out" El Nino sound a lot
      like Lindzen throwing out El Nino, along with biology
      and direction of current/trade winds. These are the
      same who would not only throw out the baby with the
      bath water, but also look at the straw in the water
      that remains in the bath tub. <br><br>Look at this
      link that is our club picture:
      <br><br><a href=http://www.nationalgeographic.com/elnino/images/winds.jpg target=new>http://www.nationalgeographic.com/elnino/images/winds.jpg</a> <br><br>Note that the warm anomalies from this
      picture of SSTs during the 1998 El Nino are associated
      with wind directions moving WEST, which would induct
      an upward electrical vector, specifically associated
      with the warmest tropical waters. This is your ocean
      temperature mystery as well . . . because cirrus behavior is
      more of a forcing then directly what the ocean surface
      temperature is, and the electrical aspects of flaring, of
      course, are part of this . . . <br><br>It is in this
      context I continue to ask about other kinds of electrical
      measures of change--like the earth's magnetic field
      changing 8% over the past 100 years. Check out this link:
      <br><br><a href=http://www.sciam.com/askexpert/geology/geology10/geology10.html target=new>http://www.sciam.com/askexpert/geology/geology10/geology10.html</a>
    • b1blancer_29501
      On Feb 28th, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field swung to a strong south-pointing orientation. That, coupled with an elevated solar wind speed and density,
      Message 702 of 702 , Mar 1, 2002
        On Feb 28th, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field
        swung to a strong south-pointing orientation. That,
        coupled with an elevated solar wind speed and density,
        triggered a G-1 class geomagnetic storm. The result was
        some high latitude aurora. See this link for a
        photgraph of aurora observed over Quebec :
        <a href=http://www.spaceweather.com/aurora/images/01mar02/Moussette2.jpg target=new>http://www.spaceweather.com/aurora/images/01mar02/Moussette2.jpg</a> . As of right now, there are 3 sunspot regions,
        namely 9839, 9842, and 9845, that appear to be capable
        of producing M-class flares. Regions 9839 and 9842
        are close to rotating out of view over the western
        limb of the solar disk. Sunspot region 9845, however,
        is close to the sun's central meridian. A rather
        large coronal hole is also approaching the sun's
        central meridian, and coming into an Earth-pointing
        position. High speed colar wind gusts are likely around the
        first of next week.<br><br>The current solar and
        geomagnetic conditions are :<br><br>NOAA sunspot number :
        153<br>SFI : 188<br>A index : 10<br>K index : 1<br><br>Solar
        wind speed : 372.3 km/sec<br>Solar wind density : 4.4
        protons/cc<br>Solar wind pressure : 1.1 nPa<br><br>IMF : 8.4
        nT<br>IMF Orientation : 0.7 nT North<br><br>Conditions for
        the last 24 hours : <br>Solar activity was low. The
        geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Stratwarm Alert
        exists Friday.<br><br>Forecast for the next 24 hours
        :<br>Solar activity will be low to moderate. The geomagnetic
        field will be quiet to unsettled.<br><br>Solar Activity
        Forecast :<br>Solar activity is expected to be low to
        moderate for the next three days. Region 9845 is a
        possible source for isolated M-class
        flares.<br><br>Geomagnetic activity forecast :<br>Geomagnetic field activity
        is expected to be mainly quiet to unsettled, until
        the onset of high speed stream effects from a
        recurrent coronal hole begin to develop by day three of the
        forecast period. Isolated active conditions are
        anticipated thereafter.<br><br>Recent significant solar flare
        activity :<br>None
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