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Re: HAIYAN

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  • Pawnfart
    Because the orbit of the moon cannot be a global forcing immediately! Think of it this way. Imagine having 6 dice. Then put wieghts on some of them that make
    Message 1 of 702 , Oct 13, 2001
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      Because the orbit of the moon cannot be a global
      forcing immediately! Think of it this way. Imagine having
      6 dice. Then put wieghts on some of them that make
      them, say, more often role certain values. Initially,
      you won't be able to pick it up. But if you roll the
      dice enough, a pattern emerges. That is your law of
      large numbers. <br><br>Hurricanes are in a way large
      number events because they are a product of SST and
      electrical properties that take time and many cirrus cloud
      <br>movements to cummulate. And this would be especially true
      over longer timescales of seasons of tropical
      activity. <br><br>Now, I realise that this Bermuda 90 foot
      wave storm was extra tropical and agree with that
      description, but at the same time I recognize and am trying to
      describe that some of the things that cause these kind of
      storms are similar to what causes extreme tropical
      events as well--like a Georges. <br><br>BTW, a dry patch
      like we have east of us here in Redding California to
      Nevada and the rest of the cowboy (not coast) west is
      without doubt <br>cummulative events such that the law of
      large numbers would start to play. There is very large
      patch of cold SSTs
      <a href=http://psbsgi1.nesdis.noaa.gov:8080/PSB/EPS/SST/climo.html target=new>http://psbsgi1.nesdis.noaa.gov:8080/PSB/EPS/SST/climo.html</a> <br><br>upflow from us and that dry patch. Cold =
      less convection typically for winter storms in places
      like Nevada (they do get monsoonal flow storms,
      <br>and that is another post on the Colorado). Meanwhile,
      China has had regional flooding--and having warm SST
      based typhoons such as the one you are alluding to.
      This, folks, is consistant with the cirrus behavior as
      I would predict it w/ a dam delaying sed rates to
      later in the season when flaring would cancel its
      impact, among other things.
    • b1blancer_29501
      On Feb 28th, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field swung to a strong south-pointing orientation. That, coupled with an elevated solar wind speed and density,
      Message 702 of 702 , Mar 1, 2002
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        On Feb 28th, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field
        swung to a strong south-pointing orientation. That,
        coupled with an elevated solar wind speed and density,
        triggered a G-1 class geomagnetic storm. The result was
        some high latitude aurora. See this link for a
        photgraph of aurora observed over Quebec :
        <a href=http://www.spaceweather.com/aurora/images/01mar02/Moussette2.jpg target=new>http://www.spaceweather.com/aurora/images/01mar02/Moussette2.jpg</a> . As of right now, there are 3 sunspot regions,
        namely 9839, 9842, and 9845, that appear to be capable
        of producing M-class flares. Regions 9839 and 9842
        are close to rotating out of view over the western
        limb of the solar disk. Sunspot region 9845, however,
        is close to the sun's central meridian. A rather
        large coronal hole is also approaching the sun's
        central meridian, and coming into an Earth-pointing
        position. High speed colar wind gusts are likely around the
        first of next week.<br><br>The current solar and
        geomagnetic conditions are :<br><br>NOAA sunspot number :
        153<br>SFI : 188<br>A index : 10<br>K index : 1<br><br>Solar
        wind speed : 372.3 km/sec<br>Solar wind density : 4.4
        protons/cc<br>Solar wind pressure : 1.1 nPa<br><br>IMF : 8.4
        nT<br>IMF Orientation : 0.7 nT North<br><br>Conditions for
        the last 24 hours : <br>Solar activity was low. The
        geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Stratwarm Alert
        exists Friday.<br><br>Forecast for the next 24 hours
        :<br>Solar activity will be low to moderate. The geomagnetic
        field will be quiet to unsettled.<br><br>Solar Activity
        Forecast :<br>Solar activity is expected to be low to
        moderate for the next three days. Region 9845 is a
        possible source for isolated M-class
        flares.<br><br>Geomagnetic activity forecast :<br>Geomagnetic field activity
        is expected to be mainly quiet to unsettled, until
        the onset of high speed stream effects from a
        recurrent coronal hole begin to develop by day three of the
        forecast period. Isolated active conditions are
        anticipated thereafter.<br><br>Recent significant solar flare
        activity :<br>None
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