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HAIYAN

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  • Pawnfart
    http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/w_pacific/2001/index.html Looks
    Message 1 of 702 , Oct 13, 2001
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      <a href=http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/w_pacific/2001/index.html target=new>http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/w_pacific/2001/index.html</a><br><br>Looks like HAIYAN is heading for Tiawan as a large
      storm according to traditional forecasting
      methods.<br><br>Tracks are a sure signal of a forcing--just like a dry
      patch.For instance, there are tracks of hurricanes I am
      familiar with because <br>of Unisys. Georges, Daniel,
      Bonnie, all tracked along the same course that would have
      passed closed to Bermuda--just like this weeks 90 foot
      <br>wave storm there. I have been talking about comparing
      this storm with 98 is the electrical properties
      stemming from flaring, SSTs and salinity and moon earth
      orbital pressures on methane hydrates and the biology
      that <br>makes new methane hydrates that would
      insulate those electrical properties.<br><br>If you look
      at the tracks this year, they are basically further
      south and if they get further north they get blown
      north. The speed of the Cape <br>Verde waves has been
      consistantly very fast. This is a signal--clear as a
      bell.<br><br>The time scales is key (and I really appreciate your
      deep thoughts along these lines), along with an
      understanding of how strong the cirrus <br>forcing is. This
      forcing is absolutely clear on greater timescales. For
      instance, take a look again at the Keeling Whorf stuff that
      ties in moon earth orbits w/ the LIA. They have also
      found a signal with PDO and orbits. This forcing that
      causes such a signal, if based on <br>depressurization
      of methane hydrates such as I postulate, hence
      changing ocean specific conductivity and cirrus activity,
      is consistant with short timescale regional
      movements and then no signal at all (chaos). Why?
    • b1blancer_29501
      On Feb 28th, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field swung to a strong south-pointing orientation. That, coupled with an elevated solar wind speed and density,
      Message 702 of 702 , Mar 1, 2002
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        On Feb 28th, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field
        swung to a strong south-pointing orientation. That,
        coupled with an elevated solar wind speed and density,
        triggered a G-1 class geomagnetic storm. The result was
        some high latitude aurora. See this link for a
        photgraph of aurora observed over Quebec :
        <a href=http://www.spaceweather.com/aurora/images/01mar02/Moussette2.jpg target=new>http://www.spaceweather.com/aurora/images/01mar02/Moussette2.jpg</a> . As of right now, there are 3 sunspot regions,
        namely 9839, 9842, and 9845, that appear to be capable
        of producing M-class flares. Regions 9839 and 9842
        are close to rotating out of view over the western
        limb of the solar disk. Sunspot region 9845, however,
        is close to the sun's central meridian. A rather
        large coronal hole is also approaching the sun's
        central meridian, and coming into an Earth-pointing
        position. High speed colar wind gusts are likely around the
        first of next week.<br><br>The current solar and
        geomagnetic conditions are :<br><br>NOAA sunspot number :
        153<br>SFI : 188<br>A index : 10<br>K index : 1<br><br>Solar
        wind speed : 372.3 km/sec<br>Solar wind density : 4.4
        protons/cc<br>Solar wind pressure : 1.1 nPa<br><br>IMF : 8.4
        nT<br>IMF Orientation : 0.7 nT North<br><br>Conditions for
        the last 24 hours : <br>Solar activity was low. The
        geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Stratwarm Alert
        exists Friday.<br><br>Forecast for the next 24 hours
        :<br>Solar activity will be low to moderate. The geomagnetic
        field will be quiet to unsettled.<br><br>Solar Activity
        Forecast :<br>Solar activity is expected to be low to
        moderate for the next three days. Region 9845 is a
        possible source for isolated M-class
        flares.<br><br>Geomagnetic activity forecast :<br>Geomagnetic field activity
        is expected to be mainly quiet to unsettled, until
        the onset of high speed stream effects from a
        recurrent coronal hole begin to develop by day three of the
        forecast period. Isolated active conditions are
        anticipated thereafter.<br><br>Recent significant solar flare
        activity :<br>None
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