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Re: Solar Activity Report for 10/11/01

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  • Pawnfart
    This type of activity, I recall, again, from what that one site you plugged, is that 1998 was the analogy year for flaring. And it has seemed that when we get
    Message 1 of 702 , Oct 11, 2001
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      This type of activity, I recall, again, from what that one site you plugged, is that
      1998 was the analogy year for flaring. And it has seemed that when we get this kind of
      proton flow there isn't much going on by way of tropical storms yet once it settles then you
      can get em big. That is the "feel" I am getting from this season and following your
      postings. Anyway, check out these
      SSTs:<br><br><a href=http://psbsgi1.nesdis.noaa.gov:8080/PSB/EPS/SST/data/anomnight.10.8.2001.gif target=new>http://psbsgi1.nesdis.noaa.gov:8080/PSB/EPS/SST/data/anomnight.10.8.2001.gif</a><br><br><a href=http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/climo_archive/anomnight.10.10.1998.gif target=new>http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/climo_archive/anomnight.10.10.1998.gif</a><br><br><a href=http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data/anomnight.10.9.1999.gif target=new>http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data/anomnight.10.9.1999.gif</a><br><br>They are from the most recent to analogy years 1998 and 99 and you can see the similarity,
      particularly w/ 99. That may mean a Caracus storm, so something later then Mitch in 99. Iris was
      huge yet fast moving and the temperature contrasts between Baha and the E.Pac near the PCZ
      remain, as do the dam conditions and relatively warm SSTs in the W. Carribean. I still think
      we have a good chance of a self starting regional staller and
      flooder.<br><br>+++++++++++++++++<br><br>Checked out the recent temp and drought readings for us in the Pac SW and SW. Still very dry
      in Redding and especially just east of here into Nevada. I could tell you stories about
      snow fall in the mountains to the east of here when my better half lived there as a kid--it
      was nothing to have huge snow storms but not any longer. This is China dams and river
      changes, IMHO. They have built 30,000 in the past 30 years in China and of course the Yangtze
      dam construction and the delta retaining programs for moving people up river in the dams
      flood plain to the delta that would normally be part of sedimentation to sea. <br><br>See
      this
      link:<br><br><a href=http://lwf.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/drought/drought.html target=new>http://lwf.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/drought/drought.html</a><br><br>China has had flooding near the delta, just like I predict this flooding event coming up. I
      would also note that since this was a post flaring event year, Florida got rain, despite the
      dams on the Orinoco and West Africa . . .
    • b1blancer_29501
      On Feb 28th, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field swung to a strong south-pointing orientation. That, coupled with an elevated solar wind speed and density,
      Message 702 of 702 , Mar 1 9:47 PM
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        On Feb 28th, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field
        swung to a strong south-pointing orientation. That,
        coupled with an elevated solar wind speed and density,
        triggered a G-1 class geomagnetic storm. The result was
        some high latitude aurora. See this link for a
        photgraph of aurora observed over Quebec :
        <a href=http://www.spaceweather.com/aurora/images/01mar02/Moussette2.jpg target=new>http://www.spaceweather.com/aurora/images/01mar02/Moussette2.jpg</a> . As of right now, there are 3 sunspot regions,
        namely 9839, 9842, and 9845, that appear to be capable
        of producing M-class flares. Regions 9839 and 9842
        are close to rotating out of view over the western
        limb of the solar disk. Sunspot region 9845, however,
        is close to the sun's central meridian. A rather
        large coronal hole is also approaching the sun's
        central meridian, and coming into an Earth-pointing
        position. High speed colar wind gusts are likely around the
        first of next week.<br><br>The current solar and
        geomagnetic conditions are :<br><br>NOAA sunspot number :
        153<br>SFI : 188<br>A index : 10<br>K index : 1<br><br>Solar
        wind speed : 372.3 km/sec<br>Solar wind density : 4.4
        protons/cc<br>Solar wind pressure : 1.1 nPa<br><br>IMF : 8.4
        nT<br>IMF Orientation : 0.7 nT North<br><br>Conditions for
        the last 24 hours : <br>Solar activity was low. The
        geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Stratwarm Alert
        exists Friday.<br><br>Forecast for the next 24 hours
        :<br>Solar activity will be low to moderate. The geomagnetic
        field will be quiet to unsettled.<br><br>Solar Activity
        Forecast :<br>Solar activity is expected to be low to
        moderate for the next three days. Region 9845 is a
        possible source for isolated M-class
        flares.<br><br>Geomagnetic activity forecast :<br>Geomagnetic field activity
        is expected to be mainly quiet to unsettled, until
        the onset of high speed stream effects from a
        recurrent coronal hole begin to develop by day three of the
        forecast period. Isolated active conditions are
        anticipated thereafter.<br><br>Recent significant solar flare
        activity :<br>None
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