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Solar Activity Report for 10/9/01

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  • b1blancer_29501
    We are inside of a somewhat gusty solar wind stream this evening that is coming from a relatively small coronal hole. Geomagnetic activity has thusfar been
    Message 1 of 702 , Oct 9, 2001
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      We are inside of a somewhat gusty solar wind
      stream this evening that is coming from a relatively
      small coronal hole. Geomagnetic activity has thusfar
      been modest, although skywatchers in did spot some
      faint aurora in the wee hours of Oct 9. Things should
      get more interesting by the 11th. Sunspot group 9653
      fired off an M1.4 flare at about 1100Z this morning,
      and a nice full-halo CME erupted along with it. It
      looks like it is travelling at about 1000 km/sec, and
      should make its way here sometime Thursday.<br><br>The
      current solar and geomagnetic conditions are
      :<br><br>NOAA sunspot number : 99<br>SFI : 176<br>A index :
      16<br>K index : 1<br><br>Solar wind speed : 384.4
      km/sec<br>Solar wind densiry : 2.6 protons/cc<br>Solar wind
      pressure : 0.7 nPa<br><br>IMF : 8.5 nT<br>IMF Orientation
      : 4.5 nT South<br><br>Conditions for the last 24
      hours :<br>Solar activity was moderate. The geomagnetic
      field was quiet to active.<br><br>Forecast for the next
      24 hours :<br>Solar activity will be low to
      moderate. The geomagnetic field will be quiet to
      active.<br><br>Solar activity forecast :<br>Solar activity is expected
      to be at low to moderate levels. Region 9653 remains
      capable of producing M-class flares.<br><br>Geomagnetic
      activity forecast :<br>The geomagnetic field is expected
      to be at quiet to active levels through day one due
      to high speed coronal hole effects. Active to minor
      storm conditions are possible late on day two through
      day three due to CME effects associated with the M1.4
      flare at 09/1113 UTC<br><br>Recent significant solar
      flare activity :<br>09-Oct-2001 1113Z M1.4
    • b1blancer_29501
      On Feb 28th, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field swung to a strong south-pointing orientation. That, coupled with an elevated solar wind speed and density,
      Message 702 of 702 , Mar 1, 2002
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        On Feb 28th, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field
        swung to a strong south-pointing orientation. That,
        coupled with an elevated solar wind speed and density,
        triggered a G-1 class geomagnetic storm. The result was
        some high latitude aurora. See this link for a
        photgraph of aurora observed over Quebec :
        <a href=http://www.spaceweather.com/aurora/images/01mar02/Moussette2.jpg target=new>http://www.spaceweather.com/aurora/images/01mar02/Moussette2.jpg</a> . As of right now, there are 3 sunspot regions,
        namely 9839, 9842, and 9845, that appear to be capable
        of producing M-class flares. Regions 9839 and 9842
        are close to rotating out of view over the western
        limb of the solar disk. Sunspot region 9845, however,
        is close to the sun's central meridian. A rather
        large coronal hole is also approaching the sun's
        central meridian, and coming into an Earth-pointing
        position. High speed colar wind gusts are likely around the
        first of next week.<br><br>The current solar and
        geomagnetic conditions are :<br><br>NOAA sunspot number :
        153<br>SFI : 188<br>A index : 10<br>K index : 1<br><br>Solar
        wind speed : 372.3 km/sec<br>Solar wind density : 4.4
        protons/cc<br>Solar wind pressure : 1.1 nPa<br><br>IMF : 8.4
        nT<br>IMF Orientation : 0.7 nT North<br><br>Conditions for
        the last 24 hours : <br>Solar activity was low. The
        geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Stratwarm Alert
        exists Friday.<br><br>Forecast for the next 24 hours
        :<br>Solar activity will be low to moderate. The geomagnetic
        field will be quiet to unsettled.<br><br>Solar Activity
        Forecast :<br>Solar activity is expected to be low to
        moderate for the next three days. Region 9845 is a
        possible source for isolated M-class
        flares.<br><br>Geomagnetic activity forecast :<br>Geomagnetic field activity
        is expected to be mainly quiet to unsettled, until
        the onset of high speed stream effects from a
        recurrent coronal hole begin to develop by day three of the
        forecast period. Isolated active conditions are
        anticipated thereafter.<br><br>Recent significant solar flare
        activity :<br>None
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