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Mitch II

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  • Pawnfart
    Let me repeat a lesson on timescales, because indeed a shifted season in the Carribean with Mitch-98, Caracus, Venezuela--99, Kevin--00, and Iris--01, this is
    Message 1 of 702 , Oct 9, 2001
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      Let me repeat a lesson on timescales, because
      indeed a shifted season in the Carribean with Mitch-98,
      Caracus, Venezuela--99, Kevin--00, and Iris--01, this is a
      pattern that is statistically significant. Even Dr. Gray
      threw out his West Africa factors this April, which is
      part of the dam issue, with West African dams built
      when Gray's factors stopped working, and then, of
      course, the dams on the Orinoco. <br><br>Jerry right
      behind Iris died once in the Carribean. I have to
      comment on this. The Gulf stream and Coriolis takes warm
      tropical Atlantic waters on the surface moving west and
      turns them north toward Florida. Iris and Jerry,
      however, continued west. The waters in the Carribean were
      very warm when Iris went by, but interestingly, to the
      north the waters, from the Gulf Stream, were also warm.
      Hence, there was no relatively cold surface water to the
      north, and wind pattern thus favor convection and not
      west moving winds right turned by Coriolis. Iris had
      most of its convection north of its eye in the E.
      Carribean's "zone" of death but managed to survive (there
      were some ambiant conditions good for it, and bad for
      it). Jerry, OTOH, doing just fine moving in the
      Atlantic despite being right behind Iris with the same
      essential track, once reaching the "zone of hurricane
      death", now had Carribean waters cooled by Iris and yet
      still had to deal with warm SSTs to the
      north.<br><br>BTW, as we are still a way from Oct 20, I still think
      there is a good chance for another Carribean storm--but
      it will have to start from there--a wave isn't going
      to survive.
    • b1blancer_29501
      On Feb 28th, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field swung to a strong south-pointing orientation. That, coupled with an elevated solar wind speed and density,
      Message 702 of 702 , Mar 1, 2002
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        On Feb 28th, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field
        swung to a strong south-pointing orientation. That,
        coupled with an elevated solar wind speed and density,
        triggered a G-1 class geomagnetic storm. The result was
        some high latitude aurora. See this link for a
        photgraph of aurora observed over Quebec :
        <a href=http://www.spaceweather.com/aurora/images/01mar02/Moussette2.jpg target=new>http://www.spaceweather.com/aurora/images/01mar02/Moussette2.jpg</a> . As of right now, there are 3 sunspot regions,
        namely 9839, 9842, and 9845, that appear to be capable
        of producing M-class flares. Regions 9839 and 9842
        are close to rotating out of view over the western
        limb of the solar disk. Sunspot region 9845, however,
        is close to the sun's central meridian. A rather
        large coronal hole is also approaching the sun's
        central meridian, and coming into an Earth-pointing
        position. High speed colar wind gusts are likely around the
        first of next week.<br><br>The current solar and
        geomagnetic conditions are :<br><br>NOAA sunspot number :
        153<br>SFI : 188<br>A index : 10<br>K index : 1<br><br>Solar
        wind speed : 372.3 km/sec<br>Solar wind density : 4.4
        protons/cc<br>Solar wind pressure : 1.1 nPa<br><br>IMF : 8.4
        nT<br>IMF Orientation : 0.7 nT North<br><br>Conditions for
        the last 24 hours : <br>Solar activity was low. The
        geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Stratwarm Alert
        exists Friday.<br><br>Forecast for the next 24 hours
        :<br>Solar activity will be low to moderate. The geomagnetic
        field will be quiet to unsettled.<br><br>Solar Activity
        Forecast :<br>Solar activity is expected to be low to
        moderate for the next three days. Region 9845 is a
        possible source for isolated M-class
        flares.<br><br>Geomagnetic activity forecast :<br>Geomagnetic field activity
        is expected to be mainly quiet to unsettled, until
        the onset of high speed stream effects from a
        recurrent coronal hole begin to develop by day three of the
        forecast period. Isolated active conditions are
        anticipated thereafter.<br><br>Recent significant solar flare
        activity :<br>None
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