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Mitch II

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  • Pawnfart
    Interestingly, Iris looks like most of its convection occurred north of its eye as it entered the eastern Carribean. I would note that the Gulf stream would
    Message 1 of 702 , Oct 6, 2001
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      Interestingly, Iris looks like most of its
      convection occurred north of its eye as it entered the
      eastern Carribean. I would note that the Gulf stream
      would hold warmer air to the north of the storm track
      as iris even jogged NW. You could see on the one had
      mid level winds bringing moisture to the storm,
      again, from that hot spot in the E. Pac near the PCZ,
      but at the same time that north of the eye convection
      seemed to dry up all the surrounding cirrus. This was a
      cirrus by convection only--with electrical forces
      working against her. But then Iris moved south of the
      island mountains, and now she has slow and taken a more
      westerly track. She has already begun to track further
      south by west then computer forecast models--and this
      points to the electrical aspect. She is very very close
      to doing the Mitch wobble. <br><br>The tropical
      storm tracking behind Iris will have more cold water
      north of her but less warm below her--this one will be
      interesting to examine too.
    • b1blancer_29501
      On Feb 28th, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field swung to a strong south-pointing orientation. That, coupled with an elevated solar wind speed and density,
      Message 702 of 702 , Mar 1, 2002
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        On Feb 28th, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field
        swung to a strong south-pointing orientation. That,
        coupled with an elevated solar wind speed and density,
        triggered a G-1 class geomagnetic storm. The result was
        some high latitude aurora. See this link for a
        photgraph of aurora observed over Quebec :
        <a href=http://www.spaceweather.com/aurora/images/01mar02/Moussette2.jpg target=new>http://www.spaceweather.com/aurora/images/01mar02/Moussette2.jpg</a> . As of right now, there are 3 sunspot regions,
        namely 9839, 9842, and 9845, that appear to be capable
        of producing M-class flares. Regions 9839 and 9842
        are close to rotating out of view over the western
        limb of the solar disk. Sunspot region 9845, however,
        is close to the sun's central meridian. A rather
        large coronal hole is also approaching the sun's
        central meridian, and coming into an Earth-pointing
        position. High speed colar wind gusts are likely around the
        first of next week.<br><br>The current solar and
        geomagnetic conditions are :<br><br>NOAA sunspot number :
        153<br>SFI : 188<br>A index : 10<br>K index : 1<br><br>Solar
        wind speed : 372.3 km/sec<br>Solar wind density : 4.4
        protons/cc<br>Solar wind pressure : 1.1 nPa<br><br>IMF : 8.4
        nT<br>IMF Orientation : 0.7 nT North<br><br>Conditions for
        the last 24 hours : <br>Solar activity was low. The
        geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Stratwarm Alert
        exists Friday.<br><br>Forecast for the next 24 hours
        :<br>Solar activity will be low to moderate. The geomagnetic
        field will be quiet to unsettled.<br><br>Solar Activity
        Forecast :<br>Solar activity is expected to be low to
        moderate for the next three days. Region 9845 is a
        possible source for isolated M-class
        flares.<br><br>Geomagnetic activity forecast :<br>Geomagnetic field activity
        is expected to be mainly quiet to unsettled, until
        the onset of high speed stream effects from a
        recurrent coronal hole begin to develop by day three of the
        forecast period. Isolated active conditions are
        anticipated thereafter.<br><br>Recent significant solar flare
        activity :<br>None
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