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Solar Activity Report for 10/3/01

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  • b1blancer_29501
    ** G-3 Geomagnetic Storm In Progress ** ** S-1 Solar Radiation Storm In Progress ** ** Aurora Watch In Effect ** The CME from 10/1 impacted
    Message 1 of 702 , Oct 3, 2001
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      ** G-3 Geomagnetic Storm In Progress **<br>** S-1
      Solar Radiation Storm In Progress **<br>** Aurora Watch
      In Effect **<br><br>The CME from 10/1 impacted
      Earth's magnetosphere yesterday, triggering a G-4 class
      geomagnetic storm. Conditions are ripe for aurora, and
      skywatchers in the middle and high latitudes should
      definitely keep an eye out after local midnight. The sunspot
      groups that spawned the geomagnetic unrest over the last
      week have rotated over the western limb of the solar
      disk, but we are not without flare-causing sunspots.
      Sunspot group 9636 is still around, and has the potential
      for generating M-class flares. A small coronal hole
      is also developing on the northeastern part of the
      solar disk.<br><br>The current solar and geomagnetic
      conditions are :<br><br>NOAA sunspot number : 196<br>SFI :
      192<br>A index : 35<br>K index : 4<br><br>Solar wind speed
      : 479.8 km/sec<br>Solar wind density : 5.5
      protons/cc<br>Solar wind pressure : 1.5 nPa<br><br>IMF : 4.7
      nT<br>IMF Orientation : 1.5 nT South<br><br>Conditions for
      the last 24 hours : <br>Solar activity was low. The
      geomagnetic field was at unsettled to major storm levels. A
      satellite proton event began at 0255 UTC on 01
      Oct.<br><br>Forecast for the next 24 hours :<br>Solar activity will be
      moderate. The geomagnetic field will be at unsettled to
      minor storm levels. A proton event is expected to
      continue.<br><br>Solar activity forecast :<br>Solar activity is forecast
      to be moderate. Region 9636 is capable of producing
      M-class flares. Old Region 9608 is returning on the
      southeast limb. It has a history of producing M-class
      activity as well.<br><br>Geomagnetic activity forecast
      :<br>Geomagnetic activity is expected to be at unsettled to minor
      storm levels during the first day as CME effects
      subside. Quiet to unsettled conditions should prevail on
      the last two days of period. The greater than 10 MeV
      proton event is expected to end during day one of the
      forecast period<br><br>Recent solar flare activity
      :<br>02-Oct-2001 1127Z M1.0 <br>02-Oct-2001 1021Z M1.4
    • b1blancer_29501
      On Feb 28th, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field swung to a strong south-pointing orientation. That, coupled with an elevated solar wind speed and density,
      Message 702 of 702 , Mar 1 9:47 PM
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        On Feb 28th, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field
        swung to a strong south-pointing orientation. That,
        coupled with an elevated solar wind speed and density,
        triggered a G-1 class geomagnetic storm. The result was
        some high latitude aurora. See this link for a
        photgraph of aurora observed over Quebec :
        <a href=http://www.spaceweather.com/aurora/images/01mar02/Moussette2.jpg target=new>http://www.spaceweather.com/aurora/images/01mar02/Moussette2.jpg</a> . As of right now, there are 3 sunspot regions,
        namely 9839, 9842, and 9845, that appear to be capable
        of producing M-class flares. Regions 9839 and 9842
        are close to rotating out of view over the western
        limb of the solar disk. Sunspot region 9845, however,
        is close to the sun's central meridian. A rather
        large coronal hole is also approaching the sun's
        central meridian, and coming into an Earth-pointing
        position. High speed colar wind gusts are likely around the
        first of next week.<br><br>The current solar and
        geomagnetic conditions are :<br><br>NOAA sunspot number :
        153<br>SFI : 188<br>A index : 10<br>K index : 1<br><br>Solar
        wind speed : 372.3 km/sec<br>Solar wind density : 4.4
        protons/cc<br>Solar wind pressure : 1.1 nPa<br><br>IMF : 8.4
        nT<br>IMF Orientation : 0.7 nT North<br><br>Conditions for
        the last 24 hours : <br>Solar activity was low. The
        geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Stratwarm Alert
        exists Friday.<br><br>Forecast for the next 24 hours
        :<br>Solar activity will be low to moderate. The geomagnetic
        field will be quiet to unsettled.<br><br>Solar Activity
        Forecast :<br>Solar activity is expected to be low to
        moderate for the next three days. Region 9845 is a
        possible source for isolated M-class
        flares.<br><br>Geomagnetic activity forecast :<br>Geomagnetic field activity
        is expected to be mainly quiet to unsettled, until
        the onset of high speed stream effects from a
        recurrent coronal hole begin to develop by day three of the
        forecast period. Isolated active conditions are
        anticipated thereafter.<br><br>Recent significant solar flare
        activity :<br>None
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